Week 10 saw numerous tight games drastically swing the NFL playoff picture.
Let’s examine the current NFL standings and playoff picture, as well as the Week 10 games that had the biggest impact.
Current NFL Playoff Bracket and Scenarios
AFC Playoff Chances
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 9-0
The Kansas City Chiefs’ win streak has been defined by a seemingly endless supply of late-game magic. It seemed like that had finally run out Sunday vs. the Denver Broncos when Wil Lutz lined up for a gimme 35-yard field goal to win.
Instead, the Chiefs came through with perhaps the most miraculous win yet in their 15-game win streak. Leo Chenal blocked the Broncos’ kick to run the Chiefs’ start to 9-0 and their overall win streak to 15 straight.
IT'S BLOCKED! @CHIEFS WIN! STILL UNDEFEATED! pic.twitter.com/hMLhAgbRpf
— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
The Chiefs will have an opportunity to put a headlock on the No. 1 overall seed and home-field advantage next week when they visit the Buffalo Bills.
2. Buffalo Bills, 8-2
From here on out, Buffalo’s schedule is mixed, with four tough games in a row around their bye week.
The Buffalo Bills did a good job of not overlooking the Indianapolis Colts, overcoming a pair of turnovers from Josh Allen with a dominant defensive performance that totally overwhelmed Joe Flacco. Buffalo generated a season-high four takeaways and now leads the NFL with a +13 turnover margin.
The Bills have matchups with the Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Detroit Lions in a five-week span. Go 4-0 or 3-1 through that stretch, and they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. However, 2-2 or worse would expose Buffalo as a group that can bully bad teams but doesn’t have the strength to compete at the top end.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-2
Are the Pittsburgh Steelers an elite team that can contend or a middle-of-the-pack squad? The Steelers’ record is fantastic at 7-2, and they continue to execute well situationally to pull out tight wins (4-2 in one-score games).
The defense is a top-six unit, and the offense has been far more explosive under Russell Wilson compared to the first six weeks under Justin Fields. After trailing for the majority of Sunday’s game against the Washington Commanders, trade deadline acquisition Mike Williams came through with a 32-yard touchdown to steal the win.
RUSSELL WILSON TO MIKE WILLIAMS! @STEELERS LEAD!
📺: #PITvsWAS on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/zM3oWDIj95— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
Pittsburgh has played the fourth-easiest schedule to date, but going forward, will face the fifth-hardest. Next week’s home game vs. the Baltimore Ravens will be for the division lead. While the Steelers will have home-field advantage and a superior record, most will expect the Ravens to be favored in that game.
4. Houston Texans, 6-4
The Houston Texans’ defense came up with five interceptions and led by 16 at halftime of their Week 10 game vs. the Detroit Lions. Somehow that wasn’t enough to stave off a third loss in four games for the reeling Texans.
The good news for Houston is that the schedule doesn’t get much harder, and the division isn’t likely to get much tougher. The Texans remain in pole position for the AFC South, having beaten the Colts twice and having a two-game lead over them in the standings.
They would need to lose three more games than Indianapolis to relinquish their grip on the division. Even better, top receiver Nico Collins can be expected to return imminently given that he was activated off injured reserve prior to Week 10.
Even if Houston wins the AFC South, the Texans would be the least convincing division winner in the conference and unlikely to have a deep playoff run as things stand.
5. Baltimore Ravens, 7-3
When the Baltimore Ravens’ offense gets clicking, it is a joy to behold. They were superb against the overwhelmed Cincinnati Bengals defense, scoring touchdowns on their final four full drives to complete a 14-point Thursday night comeback.
There have been a few hiccups this season, but Baltimore’s offense has the potential to put together a strong run in January. They are effective both on the ground and through the air, which makes them largely weather and opponent-proof.
The Ravens’ defense and special teams remain concerns, and they must improve in the coming weeks. An offense this good should be winning comfortably if it has a competent defense. Yet, the Ravens have had seven one-score games and are 4-3 in them. First place in the AFC North will be on the line when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers next week.
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 6-3
The jury very much remains out on this Los Angeles Chargers team, as they have faced the seventh-easiest schedule to date.
Their defense has carried them to a 6-3 record, having only allowed 20 points once and 17+ points on four occasions. A year after having the 24th-ranked scoring defense, the Chargers lead the league in PPG allowed after another stifling performance against the Tennessee Titans.
The top 10 defenses in the NFL through Week 9 based on the PFN Defense+ Metric ⬇️⬇️ pic.twitter.com/7y5fTTnK8n
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 5, 2024
The main positive for the Chargers is that their remaining schedule ranks as the seventh-easiest despite a brutal stretch in the middle of it. From Weeks 12 to 16, they play the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Broncos. If the Chargers go 1-4 or 0-5 in that stretch, this season could flip entirely on its head for them.
7. Denver Broncos, 5-5
The Denver Broncos were as close to beating the Kansas City Chiefs as any team has been in the last 15 games. All they needed was a well-executed 35-yard field goal for the signature victory of the season.
Instead, a terrific defensive effort was wasted and now Denver is clinging to a playoff spot. The unit bounced back from a 41-point meltdown the prior week in Baltimore to hold Patrick Mahomes and Co. to 16 points, including just 4.6 yards per play.
The general weakness of the AFC helps the Broncos. They will have a toss-up game at home next week vs. the Atlanta Falcons before a pair of games where they should be favored against the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns.
8. Indianapolis Colts, 4-6
The switch to Joe Flacco was supposed to make the Indianapolis Colts a bigger playoff threat in 2024, but Indianapolis’ offense has looked worse than ever in the last two weeks. In losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills, the Colts have averaged 16 points per game and a grotesque -0.33 EPA per play (would rank last over the course of a full season).
Based on the current numbers, Indy’s roster isn’t good enough to compete in the AFC playoff picture despite being very much in the Wild Card race. Chasing a playoff spot in 2024 at the expense of developing their young quarterback appears to be an odd decision.
9. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-6
The Cincinnati Bengals are an intriguing team because they are so close to being in a firm playoff position. Their 1-5 record in one-score games is the worst of any team this season. However, the underlying metrics suggest that Cincinnati isn’t as good as its record would suggest.
The Bengals’ wins have come against the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, and Las Vegas Raiders — all of whom rank in the bottom eight of the NFL.
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
Cincinnati’s defense is the biggest issue, having allowed 24+ points on seven occasions, resulting in five of its six losses. The offense is a good unit, but it has to be spectacular to overcome the defense. The Bengals are 2-3 when scoring over 30 points, which is a tough way to win football games, especially against stronger competition.
Cincinnati has the 10th-hardest schedule going forward, and a playoff spot is perhaps further away than their record would suggest. Next week’s game against the fellow Wild Card hopeful Los Angeles Chargers feels like a win-or-go-home for Cincy.
10. Miami Dolphins, 3-6
The Miami Dolphins snapped a three-game losing streak on Monday night. Despite a 3-6 record without any consecutive wins this season, the Dolphins are only 1.5 games out of the playoffs in the muddled AFC.
Miami’s offense has come alive since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve in Week 8, scoring at least 23 points in three straight games after never hitting that total in their first six games. The Dolphins do have a loss to the Indianapolis Colts, but otherwise don’t really encounter their competition in the AFC Wild Card race this season.
The Dolphins have a golden opportunity to make hay over the next month. Three of their next four games are at home and the opponents have a combined 8-21 record (Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New York Jets). Even if they fall on Thanksgiving night in Green Bay, a 6-7 record would have Miami squarely in the playoff mix entering the final month.
Miami is up to a 21.6% chance to make the playoffs after beating the Los Angeles Rams. With the Broncos, Colts, Bengals, and Jets all falling this week, Week 10 was the Dolphins’ best week in a long time.
NFC Playoff Chances
1. Detroit Lions, 8-1
The Detroit Lions saw Jared Goff throw five interceptions, the defense spring leaks for the first time since Aidan Hutchinson’s gruesome leg injury, and a 16-point halftime deficit vs. the Houston Texans.
Somehow, none of that mattered as the Lions won their seventh straight game to maintain the top seed in the NFC. Detroit generated two interceptions of their own in the second half, shutting out the Texans after halftime. Kicker Jake Bates won the game with a pair of field goals that skimmed the uprights, including the game-winner from 52 yards out.
JAKE. BATES. CALLED. GAME. #DETvsHOU | 📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/fSa4NBaZsP
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 11, 2024
The Lions’ schedule gets harder from here on out, but they’ve overcome three tough tests in the past four weeks. All three of Detroit’s units rank inside the top 10, as the defense has survived Hutchinson’s injury. All the pieces are here for this team to go deep into the playoffs, and Sunday’s win showed their resilience when things don’t go according to plan.
2. Philadelphia Eagles, 7-2
The Philadelphia Eagles keep chugging away and eclipsed the Washington Commanders for the NFC East lead in Week 10 following Washington’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Still, we’ve yet to get a real feel for how good they are. The Eagles have now beaten five teams in a row who rank in the bottom half of our PR+. Their toughest tests came against the Buccaneers and Packers, who are both in the top 10. They snuck past Green Bay in Week 1 and were comprehensively beaten by Tampa Bay.
Philadelphia’s offense has been excellent, and Jalen Hurts has played really well in the last three weeks. The defense has shone in recent weeks, pushing itself into the top 10 of PFN’s Defense+ metric.
The Eagles have played the second-easiest schedule to date and face a tough three-week stretch with the Commanders, Rams, and Ravens in Weeks 11-13. However, the overall schedule ranks fourth-easiest the rest of the way.
3. Atlanta Falcons, 6-4
There aren’t many metrics that suggest the Atlanta Falcons are as good as their 6-4 record indicates. The Falcons’ offense is at least a top-10 unit, but their defense is a mess, ranking third-worst in the league.
That leaves the Falcons with little margin for error, with was evidenced in the team’s Week 10 loss to the rival New Orleans Saints. Although Atlanta got a pair of touchdowns from Bijan Robinson and another 300-yard passing game from Kirk Cousins, a career-high three missed field goal from Younghoe Koo sunk the Falcons in a three-point loss.
Nevertheless, the Falcons remain in a strong position. They have a two-game lead over the Buccaneers in the standings with the head-to-head tiebreaker as well, thanks to the 49ers’ late win over Tampa Bay. With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, Atlanta is still in a good position.
4. Arizona Cardinals, 6-4
The Arizona Cardinals destroyed the crumbling New York Jets in Week 10, their latest impressive performance during their four-game win streak.
This team is a tough one to read, with Arizona’s performances on both sides of the ball having been largely inconsistent. Still, the offense is ranked seventh in PFN’s metric, and the defense quietly ranks third in PPG allowed since Week 7.
Half of Arizona’s six victories have been by more than a score, but three of the other four came by a combined four points. The Cardinals have faced a tough schedule to open the season (second overall), but things ease up in the coming weeks with the ninth-easiest remaining schedule. However, they still have rematches with both the Rams and 49ers, who the Cardinals beat the first time around.
5. Minnesota Vikings, 7-2
It wasn’t pretty watching the Minnesota Vikings this week, with Sam Darnold’s three interceptions (all targeting Justin Jefferson) nearly leading to a catastrophic loss in Jacksonville. Darnold’s hot start has rapidly faded, as he leads the NFL with 11 turnovers since Week 4.
The Vikings have a nice run of games here to put things on the right track, which is a huge plus. The defense remains one of the best in the league and stifled the hapless Mac Jones-led Jaguars to paper over Darnold’s problems. Brian Flores’ unit should be able to do the same next week against the Tennessee Titans.
Minnesota’s November schedule won’t be too rough, but there are four good offenses coming up in the final six weeks. The schedule eases up a little in the second half of the season, but this is still a top-12 remaining SOS, which means there can’t be too much room for error.
6. Washington Commanders, 7-3
The Washington Commanders suffered one of the costliest losses of any team on Sunday, failing to hold onto a fourth-quarter lead in a 28-27 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The loss dropped Washington from the No. 2 seed to the No. 6 seed in the NFC.
The good news is that the Commanders can retake first place on Thursday night when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders are 5-1 within the conference, so they already have a leg up on the Eagles (3-2 in conference play). However, they still need to at least split their two meetings and not drop too many games in the second half of the season.
Washington’s offense continues to be superb. The Commanders have scored 25+ points on six occasions and 21+ in eight games. The metrics suggest this defense is mediocre at best, but they’ve kept teams to 18 points or less on five occasions. Limit the struggles against better offenses, and this is a complete team.
7. Green Bay Packers, 6-3
The Green Bay Packers shouldn’t be too disheartened by their loss to the Lions, given it came with Love hobbled. It’s hard to read too much into the game for that reason and where the Packers stand relatively. Green Bay is probably a tier below Detroit and in a big group of teams that will be in the playoff picture but not among the top picks for the Super Bowl this season.
With a fully healthy quarterback, this is almost certainly a top-10 offense and potentially bordering on top-five. The Packers’ defense is a concern, but league-average is fine when you’ve played the sixth-hardest schedule and have a good offense. Unfortunately, things only get harder from here.
Green Bay has the second-hardest remaining schedule, which puts them at risk of missing the playoffs despite its strong start. With a group of NFC teams queuing up between four and six wins right now, 11 wins might be needed to be assured of a playoff spot without relying on tiebreaker scenarios.
8. San Francisco 49ers, 5-4
It has been a thoroughly unconvincing season for the San Francisco 49ers, but despite it all, they sat sixth in our PR+ metric entering Week 10. With Christian McCaffrey back, the 49ers overcame persistent red-zone woes and three missed field goals from Jake Moody to pull out a heart-stopping road win in Tampa Bay.
It's GOOD! Moody wins it for the @49ers! pic.twitter.com/NWwYbEVlWR
— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024
The schedule is not ideal for San Francisco from here on out, ranking as the fourth-toughest in the league. That is considerably tougher than both the Rams and Cardinals and is a big part of the reason why the PFN Playoff Predictor has this division bordering on a coin flip still.
9. Chicago Bears, 4-5
The Chicago Bears have been all over the map this season but are officially at rock bottom after a third straight dispiriting loss, this time to the New England Patriots. Chicago has failed to score a touchdown on 23 straight possessions, tied for the second-longest streak this season.
MORE: 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings and Grades
The worse news is that they have the hardest remaining schedule this season, and are likely to be underdogs in every remaining game (with the possible exception of a Week 17 home date vs. the Seattle Seahawks). But given the current state of the Bears’ offense, it’s totally feasible they won’t win another game this season.
Seven of their remaining nine games come against teams ranked in the top 10 of our PR+ metric (which combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, sprinkles in some special teams, and applies a level of correction for the strength of the schedule).
10. Los Angeles Rams, 4-5
When you consider that the Los Angeles Rams have faced a brutal schedule and had major injury issues, sitting at 4-5 isn’t a disaster. Still, seeing their three-game win streak snapped a day after the two teams above them in the division won is a tough break, and puts Los Angeles right back in a tough spot.
The Rams offense is a borderline top-10 unit, but curiously failed to score a single touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10 despite being at its healthiest state of the season. Keeping the trio of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams on the field is vital, and Monday was only the second game they’ve started and finished together. The division remains very much in play, but there are plenty of potential stumbling blocks along the way.
11. Seattle Seahawks, 4-5
Evaluating the Seattle Seahawks is tough because PFN’s metrics (Offense+, Defense+, and special teams) all tell you that this is an above-average team. However, they padded their stats with some good games against weak teams in the opening month of the season.
The Seahawks are now fourth in the division and face the third-hardest schedule in the NFL going forward. Despite a 3-0 start, this might now be a team that has half an eye on not getting embarrassed in terms of their schedule as opposed to pushing for a playoff spot.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4-6
The way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have fought in recent weeks is impressive, but their defense and the inability to get across the line is putting them in a tough spot. At full strength, this might be the second-best offense in the NFL. If the Bucs can just get their defense to be league-average, they can be competitive with any team.
However, another competitive loss to a strong team is not going to cut it, and letting a fourth-quarter lead slip away in the Week 10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers makes for a bleak outlook.
The only good news is that Tampa Bay has played the toughest schedule in the NFL and only lost two of their six games by more than a score. The Buccaneers’ schedule going forward is the easiest in the league, meaning they could potentially run the table in the final seven weeks.