The Los Angeles Rams entered the 2024 NFL season with lofty expectations. But all-around struggles and a rash of key injuries led to a surprising 1-4 start for Sean McVay and company.
However, the Rams looked like a different team following their Week 6 bye until Monday night’s loss to the Dolphins. Los Angeles bounced back with a Week 11 win over the New England Patriots.
With all that said, let’s look at the Rams’ updated playoff chances and scenarios.
Can the Rams Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Los Angeles Rams are 5-5 and now have a 19.1% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.2% chance for the 1 seed, a 1.4% chance for the second seed, a 6.6% chance for the third seed, a 1.4% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.4% chance for the fifth seed, a 2.2% chance for the sixth seed, and a 7.0% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Rams Win the NFC West?
Here’s what the NFC West race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Arizona Cardinals have a 67.5% chance to win the NFC West.
- The Los Angeles Rams have a 9.5% chance to win the NFC West.
- The San Francisco 49ers have a 15.1% chance to win the NFC West.
- The Seattle Seahawks have a 7.9% chance to win the NFC West.
Current NFC West Standings
- Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (5-5)
- Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Rams’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Rams win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Los Angeles has a 0.7% chance to win it all.
Rams’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 13: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 14: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 15: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 16: at New York Jets
- Week 17: vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks
What PFN Predicted for the Rams vs. Patriots
With a fairly difficult closing stretch, the Rams must take care of business against the rebuilding New England Patriots.
The biggest concern for the Rams has been their red-zone inefficiency on offense. Los Angeles ranks 30th in red-zone efficiency and could only manage five field goals in its Week 10 loss to Miami. New England has been almost exactly average in red-zone defense (15th), so it is critical the Rams don’t continue to settle for field goals.
The good news for Matthew Stafford is that the Patriots’ defense is typically ineffective in pressuring the quarterback (last week’s nine-sack outing against the Chicago Bears notwithstanding). Stafford ranks 30th in EPA per dropback when pressured (-0.54) but 13th without pressure (0.24).
On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense has been a quietly effective unit after a rough start to the season. Los Angeles ranks third in both EPA per play and success rate on defense since Week 6. They were last in EPA per play from Weeks 1-5.
Drake Maye has injected a sorely needed dose of playmaking to the Patriots offense, but the rookie is both turnover- and sack-prone. The Rams are ninth in sack rate and 11th in takeaways per drive, so there should be opportunities to create big plays.
Los Angeles is a 4.5-point road favorite and will be seeking its second straight road win after starting 0-3 on the road in 2024.
PFN Prediction: Rams 24, Patriots 17