The 2024 NFL season has made the turn for home. It’s time to separate the show ponies from the thoroughbreds.
We try to do just that with PFN betting expert Kyle Soppe’s Week 10 NFL picks and predictions, analyzing a heavy inter-conference slate that, at least on paper, should be competitive.
As of Tuesday afternoon, there wasn’t a single team favored by multiple scores.
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Pro Football Network’s Week 10 Moneyline Picks
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 53) TNF
- David Bearman: Ravens
- Adam Beasley: Ravens
- Dallas Robinson: Bengals
- Kyle Soppe: Ravens
After three straight losses to start the season, the Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) have gotten right against some of the NFL‘s worst teams. Their four wins in the last six weeks have been against teams that are a combined 20 games under .500.
The Bengals’ defense has allowed 61 points in Cincinnati’s last two games and ranks 28th in PFN’s proprietary DEF+ metric.
After all the Week 9 action on Thursday and Sunday, here are the new playoff chances for every team based on the PFN Playoff Predictor ⬇ pic.twitter.com/w6NQPwHk74
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 4, 2024
They have their toughest assignment yet against an electric Baltimore Ravens offense that has the highest OFF+ score (89.3) since 2019. Baltimore has won six of seven and has gone over the game total in eight of nine outings.
Per the PFN Playoff Predictor, the Ravens have an 81% chance to win.
Soppe’s Pick: Bengals +6 (Lamar Jackson is 3-10-1 against the spread in his past 14 games as a favorite of more than five points)
New York Giants (-5, 41.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Bearman: Panthers
- Beasley: Giants
- Robinson: Giants
- Soppe: Panthers
Daniel Jones could be without his No. 1 deep threat, as Darius Slayton (32-469-1) is in the concussion protocol. But that might not matter against a Carolina Panthers defense that ranks last in scoring defense (32.5 points per game), total defense (391.9 yards), rushing defense (159.3), and in first downs (23.3).
Certainly, it was nice to see Bryce Young get just the third win of his career in Week 9, considering all he’s been through. However, his QB rating on the season is still just 26.5.
The New York Giants have a 63% chance to win, per the playoff predictor.
Soppe’s Pick: Under 41.5
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6, 39.5)
- Bearman: Bears
- Beasley: Bears
- Robinson: Bears
- Soppe: Bears
In the Week 9 loss to the Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye showed flashes of what he someday might become, leading the Pats with 95 yards on eight carries. Yet, he still needed 41 attempts to throw for 206 yards.
The Patriots on the year have the NFL’s ninth-worst OFF+ rating since 2024.
They’ll face an excellent but ailing Chicago Bears defense that allowed more than 21 points for the first time all season in a Week 9 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. During the game, defensive end Andrew Billings (chest) and defensive back Terell Smith (ankle) left with injuries and did not return.
PFN’s advanced stats give the Bears a 69% chance to win.
Soppe’s Pick: Over 39
Buffalo Bills (-4, 46) at Indianapolis Colts
- Bearman: Bills
- Beasley: Bills
- Robinson: Bills
- Soppe: Bills
No Amari Cooper, no problem for a Buffalo Bills offense that scored 30+ for the sixth time in nine games in their thrilling Week 9 win over the Miami Dolphins.
But the injuries at wide receiver are starting to pile up. Cooper’s status for Sunday is unclear with a hand injury, while Keon Coleman seems unlikely to play after hurting his wrist against Miami.
That might matter against an Indianapolis Colts defense that has allowed 23 points or less in four straight games and is seventh in expected points added per play (-.090) since Week 6. And yet, the playoff predictor gives Indianapolis just a 30% chance of winning.
Soppe’s Pick: Bills -4
Minnesota Vikings (-4, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Bearman: Vikings
- Beasley: Vikings
- Robinson: Vikings
- Soppe: Vikings
Sam Darnold certainly makes it interesting at times — throwing four picks and fumbling twice in the last four weeks — but it’s hard to argue with the results. Sunday’s 21-13 victory over the Colts was the seventh time in eight games Darnold’s passer rating exceeded 100.
While the Minnesota Vikings (6-2, and 81% to win) keep finding ways to win, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) keep finding ways to lose. Five of their seven losses have been by one score.
Strangely enough, however, Jacksonville has found ways to cover, going 5-4 against the spread this year (including 3-0 in the last three weeks).
Soppe’s Pick: Under 47
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 41.5)
- Bearman: Chiefs
- Beasley: Chiefs
- Robinson: Chiefs
- Soppe: Broncos
The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-0 for the third time in franchise history and are now +180 favorites to become the first team to reach the Super Bowl five times in six years.
And they’re doing it with incredible balance.
The Chiefs (69% to win) have scored 26+ points on six occasions this year — the same number of times they’ve held their opponents to 20 points or under. But just twice this year have the Chiefs won by two scores or more.
The Denver Broncos, meanwhile, have lost by multiple scores just once — although it happens to be their most recent outing (a 41-10 shellacking at the hands of the Ravens).
Soppe’s Pick: Broncos+8
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 46.5) at New Orleans Saints
- Bearman: Falcons
- Beasley: Falcons
- Robinson: Falcons
- Soppe: Falcons
Is there a halo effect for interim coaches? It’s definitely possible. From 2010-2021, midseason replacements went 14-9 straight up and against the spread in their first games after making a change.
But the New Orleans Saints — who fired Dennis Allen this week and promoted special teams coach Darren Rizzi after seven straight losses — might be too bad for it to make a difference.
According to @AdamSchefter, Saints HC Dennis Allen has been fired.
Allen finishes with the 3rd-worst winning percentage amongst head coaches all-time with .329 (min. 75 games). pic.twitter.com/7ovlAMxlgK
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 4, 2024
After scoring 91 points in their first two games of the season, the Saints have managed 116 in the seven since. Plus, New Orleans will almost certainly be without Chris Olave, who was hospitalized after suffering his fourth diagnosed concussion (at least) last week.
The Atlanta Falcons are 3-0 ATS in road games this year; the Saints are 0-5 ATS since Week 5. Atlanta is a slight moneyline favorite according to PFN’s advanced metrics.
Soppe’s Pick: Falcons -3.5
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 51) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Bearman: Buccaneers
- Beasley: 49ers
- Robinson: 49ers
- Soppe: 49ers
Kyle Shanahan must have been thrilled when the NFL gave the San Francisco 49ers a Week 9 bye for the third straight season.
The scheduled week off has worked out great for them. The Niners have won 20 of their 24 games after their bye in each of the last two seasons, including the playoffs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on a short week after their overtime road loss to the Chiefs very late Monday night. That’s usually a bad thing. The Buccaneers are 5-16 on short rest since 2014, so it’s no surprise that PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives Tampa less than a two-in-five chance of winning.
Soppe’s Pick: 49ers -5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-3, 46)
- Bearman: Commanders
- Beasley: Commanders
- Robinson: Commanders
- Soppe: Commanders
The Washington Commanders are 4-0 straight up at home this year, winning by an average of 15 points per game. But the Pittsburgh Steelers, who had a Week 9 bye, are road warriors — they’ve won three of their four games away from the Three Rivers confluence this year.
This will be Pittsburgh’s toughest road test to date, however. The Commanders are 55% to win, and odds are good that they will have RB Brian Robinson Jr. back after making him a late scratch last week with a hamstring injury.
Soppe’s Pick: Under 45.5
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 38)
- Bearman: Chargers
- Beasley: Chargers
- Robinson: Chargers
- Soppe: Chargers
It’s probably premature to say whether the Titans figured things out on defense last week. Yes, they surrendered just 17 points and allowed 4.5 yards per play. But it came against a dreadful Patriots offense.
Tennessee’s Week 10 opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, are built more like their Week 8 opponent (Detroit Lions) that dropped 52 on them despite throwing the ball 19 times. The Titans’ strength of victory (.235) is the third-worst in football.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have beat up on bad teams the last two weeks, outscoring the Saints and Cleveland Browns by a combined 35 points. They’re 67% to win Sunday, per the playoff predictor.
Soppe’s Pick: Under 38
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 46)
- Bearman: Cardinals
- Beasley: Cardinals
- Robinson: Cardinals
- Soppe: Jets
After playing five games in October, the New York Jets will have just two in November — and none against anyone more than one game over .500.
While Aaron Rodgers and New York’s offense showed signs of life in their Week 9 win over the Houston Texans, they still haven’t scored 25 points all season and have a C- OFF+ grade on the year.
The Jets are 1-4 ATS both on the road this year and against teams with winning records.
Perhaps the only good news for Gang Green? The Cardinals are one of the worst defenses in football (27th, per DEF+). The game is a true coinflip, per the playoff predictor.
Soppe’s Pick: Over 46
Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 42) at Dallas Cowboys
- Bearman: Eagles
- Beasley: Eagles
- Robinson: Eagles
- Soppe: Eagles
The Dallas Cowboys’ 2024 death spiral appears to be well underway. Not only have they lost five out of seven, but they’ve been outscored by 70 points during that stretch.
It’s hard to see how that gets better now that Dak Prescott is out for multiple games with a hamstring injury. That means it’s Cooper Rush time. While Rush is 5-1 as a starter in his career, the Cowboys’ EPA per game was -.617 in those games, as opposed to 3.695 per game in Prescott’s 53 starts since 2021.
The Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread after a loss and 0-3 ATS at home in 2024.
The Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, are rolling after a shaky start to the season. They’ve won their last four by a combined 54 points and are 5-1 straight up against teams with losing records this year.
Soppe’s Pick: Cowboys +7
Detroit Lions (-3.5, 49.5) at Houston Texans SNF
- Bearman: Lions
- Beasley: Lions
- Robinson: Lions
- Soppe: Lions
Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout — although it’s unclear if the Texans can keep up with the Lions, who lead the league in scoring (32.3 per game).
The Texans, meanwhile, have hit the game total under in all four of their home games this year. What’s more, they’ve seen some signs of slippage from C.J. Stroud, who has thrown just one touchdown pass in his last three games.
The Lions are 3-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records this year and addressed their biggest need by trading for pass rusher Za’Darius Smith ahead of the trade deadline. No surprise, then, that PFN’s Playoff Predictor has Detroit at 72% to win.
Soppe’s Pick: Lions ML, Lions -3.5
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 51) MNF
- Bearman: Rams
- Beasley: Dolphins
- Robinson: Rams
- Soppe: Dolphins
The disappointing Dolphins elected not to blow up their roster at the trade deadline, believing the season could be salvaged even after a 2-6 start.
But improvement must come in the unlikeliest of places: On the road, under the lights.
The Dolphins have lost seven of their last eight prime-time games and five of their last six regardless of start time away from Hard Rock Stadium, including the postseason. With Mike McDaniel as head coach, Miami’s only road prime-time wins have come against Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett.
But the test might not be as tough as one would expect. Matthew Stafford has a D+ QB+ grade this year.
Soppe’s Pick: Under 50
Kyle Soppe’s Week 10 Betting Card
- Bengals +6
- Giants/Panthers under 41.5
- Bills -4
- Patriots/Bears over 39
- Broncos +8
- Falcons -3.5
- 49ers -5
- Steelers/Commanders under 45.5
- Titans/Chargers under 38
- Jets/Cardinals over 46
- Cowboys +7
- Lions ML, Lions -3.5
- Dolphins/Rams under 50