With Week 15 of the fantasy football season on the horizon, Devin Singletary’s role on the Buffalo Bills offense is set. The second option among the running backs and third inside the red zone with QB Josh Allen taking his share. With a favorable matchup against the Denver Broncos upcoming, could Devin Singletary be started in fantasy, or is dropping him ahead of Week 15 the better alternative?
2020 has not been the season fantasy managers expected for Devin Singletary
Going off the board as the RB24 in PPR formats, you never want to select someone at peak value in fantasy. Unfortunately, that is the case for Singletary this season. There was hope that Devin Singletary could step forward and be the lead back for the Buffalo Bills. Which has been the case but, are we pleased about it?
Entering Week 14, Devin Singletary leads the team in carries with 135. He also leads the Bills’ RBs in opportunities (179), touches (167), and yards from scrimmage (807).
There just hasn’t seemed to have been the same spark that we saw out of him as a rookie. In 12 games in 2019, he posted 151 carries for 775 yards and two rushing TDs. He also added 29 receptions on 41 targets for 194 yards and two more touchdowns.
Just from a rushing perspective, while he has 16 fewer rushes in 2020, there is almost 200 yards difference between the two seasons. His yards per carry number has dropped from 5.13 to 4.3.
Devin Singletary’s inability to score is also a massive detriment to his fantasy ceiling. He scored just five touchdowns on 347 career touches.
The Bills offense is completely different than last year
While most of us thought QB Josh Allen would improve, I don’t think we knew it would be this much. With that improvement and addition of Stefon Diggs, head coach Sean McDermott has changed the offense.
In 2019, the Bills threw the ball 513 times and ran the ball 465 times. In 2020, they are on pace for 580 passing attempts and 405 carries. Devin Singletary sees a nearly identical percentage of team carries (43%), but the volume is less.
Last year, out of the 31 quarterbacks who attempted 25 or more passes beyond 20 yards down the field, Josh Allen’s 30.9% adjusted completion percentage was 29th. The only QBs worse were Kyle Allen (29.6%) and Dwayne Haskins (29.6).
Out of the 28 QBs who fit the qualifier this year, Josh Allen is 10th at 46.4%. His percentage of on-target throws has also climbed from 73.2% to 79.1%.
The change in offensive philosophy has allowed Josh Allen to be the QB5 and Stefon Diggs to be the fantasy WR3 in PPR.
Singletary is also the third option on critical touches
Frank Gore’s departure led fantasy managers to hope that Devin Singletary could see more red zone work. That’s not going to happen as Zack Moss has taken that role.
In 2019, Gore averaged 10.4 carries and one target per game. This season, Moss is averaging 8.4 carries per game and 1.6 targets per game. In 16 games last year, Gore saw 25 red zone carries. In 2020, Moss has 21 in the 10 games he has played.
It’s not to say that Moss has been the better back. He has 84 carries for 335 yards (3.99) along with 12 receptions for 82 yards. The difference is he has four touchdowns. Both running backs steal from either other’s ceilings. You almost have to use the red zone carries as a tiebreaker at times.
All of this isn’t even mentioning the team leader in red zone rushes, Josh Allen. His 22 rushing attempts and six touchdowns lead the Bills. Inside the five-yard line, Allen has double (6) the combined scores of Moss and Singletary (3).
What should you do with Devin Singletary in Week 15 of the fantasy playoffs?
While you don’t usually think of the Denver Broncos being a lousy defense, they’ve been bad over the back half of the regular season. After allowing just 3.67 ypc and one touchdown to RBs over their first six games, they’ve allowed 4.75 yards per carry and 11 total touchdowns to them over their last seven games. Injuries and the loss of DL Mike Purcell played a large factor in this. They are also fresh off the heels of giving up two TDs and 93 yards to Mike Davis. Additionally, those 11 touchdowns don’t include the two that Taysom Hill scored in Week 12.
In any other situation, I would recommend the running back facing them. However, I can’t do it in Week 15 with Devin Singletary. He is also coming off a season-low snap percentage of 41%. The 85% in Week 13 against the 49ers was an anomaly due to Moss’s benching after an early fumble.
The Bills are heavy favorites in this game, and that means scoring opportunities. However, we know these have not been going to Devin Singletary. I can’t place him any higher than an RB4, and that’s due to the success we expect this offense to have. I don’t feel comfortable starting a player who will likely have 14 touches that won’t even be in the red zone. Throw in Allen stealing at least one TD, and I have Devin Singletary on my bench.
If needed, you can drop either Bills RB in Week 15
You could drop Devin Singletary from your roster in most leagues. If you can grab 49ers RB Jeff Wilson off waivers, cut bait on Singletary. This applies to Zack Moss, too. Yes, the Bills trusted him to end the game against the Steelers, but the ceiling is low once again. He is in a three-way share for goal line carries and one he will never win. You might get a TD, but is it reliable? Moss is averaging 7.8 PPR points per game (51st) and hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 9.
Want more fantasy football analysis and news?
Be sure to follow us on Twitter: @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while again seeing our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.