After rocketing out to a 7-0 record, the mighty Navy Midshipmen finally fell at the hands of the North Texas Mean Green 31-17 in Week 10. What does the loss mean for Navy’s postseason chances?
What are the Chances of Navy Making the College Football Playoff?
According to the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), the chances of Navy making the AAC Championship Game are now below 40% (would’ve sat at over 75% with a win against UNT). Their odds of making the CFP? A measly 15% after being 24.8% entering the week.
While the Midshipmen’s offense has paced the conference in PFSN’s College Offense Impact score, their defense ranked sixth-worst heading into the bout against North Texas.
Both rankings will likely take a hit after the loss, with starting QB Blake Horvath throwing two interceptions to no touchdowns, and the defense conceding 30+ points for the fourth straight week.
Now 7-1 on the year, what can we expect from Navy down the stretch, and what is their path to making the CFP?
Remaining Navy Football Schedule
- at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- vs. USF Bulls
- at Memphis Tigers
- vs. Army Black Knights
Had the Midshipmen not lost to North Texas, effectively keeping their playoff odds above 75%, they likely would’ve seen them tank after their Week 11 date with 5-2 Notre Dame. While the Irish have not looked as dominant as they did last season, they outscored Navy 51-14 in 2024, and a similar score could await.
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The bloodshed doesn’t end there, either. USF owns one of the most high-powered offenses in the nation, and Navy’s defense has clearly struggled to stop anyone this year. Memphis is also no joke, sitting at 8-1 on the year.
Then, there’s Army. Navy may own the series lead at 63-55-7Â and won outright last year, but the Black Knights lead 6-3 in the last nine matchups.
Navy’s playoff dream isn’t dead yet, but it’s on life support. They’ll need to survive a gauntlet, all while hoping the AAC chaos gods smile upon them and clear a path to the conference title game that’s now a coin flip at best.
