The Vanderbilt Commodores roared out to a 7-1 start to the 2025 season, raising hopes of an SEC title bid. A Week 10 loss to the Texas Longhorns slashed those hopes, along with the ideas of a College Football Playoff bid, but by how much?
What are the Chances of Vanderbilt Making the College Football Playoff?
According to the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), the chances of Vanderbilt making the SEC title bout are now under 1% (was 7.1% entering Week 10), and their odds of making the playoff have fallen to roughly 30% (would’ve been around 75% with a win against Texas).
Prior to being stomped by Arch Manning and Co. (the final 34-30 score is much closer than the actual game was), Vanderbilt held the 31st-ranked defense and fourth-ranked offense in PFSN’s College Impact scores. It wasn’t enough to avoid an upset in Austin, with Diego Pavia’s side struggling to move the ball on the ground, while Manning aired it out.
Vanderbilt’s running backs combined for just 19 rushing yards heading into the fourth quarter, stunting the offense’s ability to extend drives. Meanwhile, Manning enjoyed one of his best outings of the season, completing over 70% of his passes for over 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Now, the ‘Dores sit at the same record as the Longhorns (7-2) heading into a pivotal stretch of SEC play for both squads.
Remaining Vanderbilt Football Schedule
- vs. Auburn Tigers
- vs. Kentucky Wildcats
- at Tennessee Volunteers
Unless four of the Texas A&M Aggies, Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs, Ole Miss Rebels, and Longhorns stumble the rest of the season, Vanderbilt’s SEC Championship dreams are all but over. But what about the CFP?
If Pavia can lead his team to three straight SEC victories over the Tigers, Wildcats, and top-15-ranked Vols, the ‘Dores would still have a shot of making the last dance.
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However, if they drop just one of those final three games, they’ll have to be content with a second consecutive bowl berth for the first time since 2012-13 under James Franklin.
Head coach Clark Lea has already exceeded expectations by making Vanderbilt relevant again, but if the Commodores want to crash the playoff party instead of settling for another mid-tier bowl, they’ll need to run the table (and pray on the downfall of their conference counterparts).