Two heartbreaking losses against top-10 teams had Notre Dame dead to rights in terms of playoff chances. Yet their offense continues to put up style points while their defense has slowly started to come together. Perhaps we’ll see a backdoor playoff appearance from the Fighting Irish if they continue to do what they have been.
Boise State can no longer rely on the nation’s best running back, which is ironic to write about in a game where they now have to go against the nation’s best running back. The season certainly hasn’t been what the Broncos had hoped, but there is still an opportunity for them to make some noise.
Notre Dame vs. Boise State Game Details
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025
- Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium | South Bend, Indiana
- Predicted Weather at Kick: 60 degrees, clear, light winds
- How To Watch:Â NBC
Notre Dame vs. Boise State Head-to-Head Record
Notre Dame and Boise State have never played each other. The closest they got was last season when Boise State lost to Penn State. Had they won that matchup, they would have faced Notre Dame in a final-four game.
Notre Dame vs. Boise State PFSN Grades
PFSN College OFFi
- Notre Dame (88.1, B+)
- Boise State (75.6, C)
PFSN College DEFi
- Notre Dame (76.0, C)
- Boise State (77.5, C+)
PFSN College OLi
- Notre Dame (87.7, B+)
- Boise State (74.9, C)
PFSN College QBi
- CJ Carr, Notre Dame (81.0, B-)
- Maddux Madsen, Boise State (81.0, B-)
PFSN College RBi
- Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (83.1, B)
- Dylan Riley, Boise State (71.3, C-)
PFSN College WRi
- Malachi Fields, Notre Dame (79.2, C+)
- Latrell Caples, Boise State (73.4, C)
PFSN College TEi
- Eli Raridon, Notre Dame (82.9, B-)
- Matt Lauter, Boise State (75.5, C)
PFSN College EDGEi
- Boubacar Traore, Notre Dame (78.1, C+)
- Jayden Virgin-Morgan, Boise State (73.4, C)
PFSN College DTi
- Donovan Hinish, Notre Dame (78.6, C+)
- Braxton Fely, Boise State (71.6, C-)
PFSN College LBi
- Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, Notre Dame (71.6, C-)
- Marco Notarainni, Boise State (71.3, C-)
PFSN College CBi
- Christian Gray, Notre Dame (86.3, B)
- A’Marion McCoy, Boise State (71.3, C-)
PFSN College SAFi
- Tae Johnson, Notre Dame (89.1, B+)
- Zion Washington, Boise State (76.0, C)
Notre Dame vs. Boise State Prediction
According to TruMedia, Notre Dame ranks 15th in EPA (expected points added) per play offensively, 18th in points per drive, and 13th in yards per play. This aligns with our offensive impact score ranking of eighth for the Fighting Irish this season. Even in their two losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the offense was not the issue.
Once Mike Denbrock remembered he could use the best running back duo in the nation, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have been virtually unstoppable. With a rushing success rate ranking 47th and rushing EPA ranking 32nd, I don’t expect them to slow down now.
Boise State’s run defense has been consistent from down to down but ranks 102nd in EPA per rush allowed because of a tendency to allow back-breaking runs in impactful situations. They aren’t that bad at preventing chunk plays, ranking 55th in explosive run rate allowed. Unfortunately, they rank 124th and 91st on second and third down in yards per rush allowed.
What initially allowed the Miami defense to have success against this Notre Dame offense was their ability to pressure the passer. While the Broncos rank third in the nation in pressure rate, they have faced an FCS team as well as the 86th-, 116th-, and 117th-ranked offensive lines in our system. Now they will attempt to pressure PFSN’s 10th-ranked offensive line, which has improved significantly since the start of the season.
Boise State’s one shot at keeping this close is that they rank 26th in EPA when not pressured, and they face a Notre Dame defensive line that ranks 98th in pressure rate. Boise State ranks 55th in seconds per play, suggesting balance in pace of play.
I just don’t see this happening. If Boise State tries to turn this into a fast-paced barn burner, Notre Dame will outscore them with one of the hottest offenses in football. If they try to slow it down with long drives, Notre Dame’s top-flight offensive line and running backs will grind them down slowly.
Prediction: Notre Dame 42, Boise State 24
