It wasn’t pretty, but the Oklahoma Sooners handled business in Week 14, knocking off the LSU Tigers 17-13. Their ticket to the College Football Playoff is all but booked now, and in doing so, they thwarted one of their biggest rivals.
What Are the Chances of Oklahoma Making the College Football Playoff?
According to the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), Oklahoma entered Week 14 with a projected 76.6% chance of making the CFP. With the win, that’s shot up to a near-guarannteed 99.1%. It was effectively a must-win game for the Sooners, as had they lost, their odds would’ve fallen to a paltry 10.3%.
The CFP Selection Committee ranked Brent Venables’s squad No. 8 in the country earlier this week. Now, they sit at 10-2 on the year, and 6-2 in the SEC.
SET IT OFF 🔥 pic.twitter.com/RfRYDvcZzg
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) November 30, 2025
There are three projected automatic bids ahead of them (the Big Ten’s Ohio State, the SEC’s Texas A&M, and the Big 12’s Texas Tech), but they’re the fifth-ranked At-Large team based on those rankings.
Following the five automatic bids for conference winners, only seven At-Large teams make the postseason dance. The current projected At-Large teams would be Indiana, Georgia, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama.
Early-season losses to Texas and Ole Miss appeared to have doomed the Sooners’ odds of making the 12-team bracket, but victories over Alabama and Tennessee have helped reshape their image.
They are still boxed out of the SEC Championship Game due to the two conference losses, but the victory over LSU should all but cement their place in the CFP.
Venables has guided Oklahoma from a 6-7 record in 2024 to a 10-2 campaign featuring the most ranked wins in the country (No. 15 Michigan, No. 22 Auburn, No. 14 Tennessee, No. 4 Alabama, and No. 22 Missouri).
Say what you will about the John Mateer-led offense (51st-ranked unit in PFSN’s College Impact rating), but the defense (third-ranked unit) has played exceptionally well all year.
With one week left before the brackets are set, Oklahoma has done everything required to silence the doubts that hovered in September. They’ve stacked quality wins and built a résumé the committee can’t ignore.
The same can’t be said for rival Texas, which saw its CFP hopes dashed on Saturday despite shocking No. 3 Texas A&M the night before. Three losses are difficult to overcome in the CFP conversation, especially when one of them came against a 4-8 Florida team.
KEEP READING: College Football Predictions Week 14
For the Committee to even entertain Texas sneaking into the final bracket, several upsets would’ve needed to happen:
- Ohio State over Michigan (check)
- Auburn over Alabama
- UCF over BYU (nope)
- Kansas beats Utah (nope)
- Tennessee beats Vanderbilt (nope)
With three of those unchecked, and Alabama a big favorite in the Iron Bowl, Steve Sarkisian and Co. will have to watch the CFP from the couch after making the semi-final two years in a row.