The committee has an extremely tough job to do, with a high likelihood of fans being angry regardless of the decisions they make. Luckily for PFSN, we have an evident and defensible way of determining who we believe should be in the playoff. Our College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is not a resume ranker, but rather a ranking of teams most likely to make the playoffs.
12) Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners had an elimination game in Tuscaloosa in week 11. Their defense stepped up to the plate and delivered big-time. According to TruMedia, there have been 1,619 games since 2019 with a total yardage differential of greater than 190. In those games, the team with the higher differential has won 97.8% of the time. Oklahoma is part of the 2.2%.
Alabama out-gained the Sooners 406 to 212, but the Sooner defense was able to make plays when it mattered most. The Crimson Tide lost 20.1 EPA (expected points added) on the three turnovers. To put it in another context, Oklahoma went from a 40% chance to win to a 55% chance on the pick six alone. Regardless of how it played out, these turnovers were a result of getting after it in pass rushing.
#Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis named Bednarik Player of the Week: Game-high seven tackles, a career-high 2.0 sacks and a QB hurry vs. Alabama https://t.co/4qMBn0Gd1z pic.twitter.com/F651RsaP8x
— SoonerScoop.com (@SoonerScoop) November 18, 2025
Despite being without R-Mason Thomas and technically not getting a lot of pressure, the few pressures they did get were incredibly valuable. Both the pick-six and the Taylor Wein forced fumble happened on plays where Ty Simpson was simply too uncomfortable with the Oklahoma pass rush bearing down on him. Wins over LSU and Missouri would give the Sooners one heck of a chance to make the playoffs.
11) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
As much as people may want to criticize the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, I absolutely support their ranking and think it makes intuitive sense. The argument in the past was that they didn’t have a good enough resume because they lost the two most important games. This completely overlooks the fact that they have a convincing win over another ranked team, USC.
It also overlooks their dominating win over an Arkansas team that has been in a one-possession game with nearly every elite SEC team they have faced. Ignoring the obvious missed call that gifted Texas A&M the win over the Irish in Week 2, they still have a good enough resume to make the playoffs.
They are one of the hottest teams in football, and their losses are by a combined total of four points. You can make the argument that Miami belongs over them because of their head-to-head, but the resume of Notre Dame makes that conversation a bit more difficult.
10) Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia has dropped all the way down to 21 in our rankings after a disastrous Week 10. With only one loss that didn’t even count as a conference loss, the Cavaliers were in prime shape to take the ACC and make the playoffs.
Fast forward to another crazy week of ACC football, and Virginia is back up to No. 12 in our rankings. The win over Duke, as well as both Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech, likely dropping in our power ratings due to poor performances, are the main culprits for Virginia rising back up.
9) BYU Cougars
As I said in last week’s rankings, BYU was severely outplayed by Texas Tech in their most crucial game of the year. Luckily, BYU’s No. 51-ranked strength of schedule allows them a chance to remain in the playoff conversation. They have a 41.5% chance of making it in as an at-large team, and a 26.9% chance of winning their conference championship.
8) Alabama Crimson Tide
Simpson is one of the better quarterbacks in college football, but he showed the nation his cards a bit against Oklahoma. Alabama ranks No. 44 in EPA per play under pressure, compared to No. 21 when not under pressure.
While Crimson Tide is still one of the best teams in the nation, their performance under pressure is worrisome for a team that has been inconsistent at times on the offensive line.
7) Oregon Ducks
A week removed from the gruesome Iowa game, Oregon has two more potentially sneaky upset games to play. With games against both USC and Washington coming up, Oregon’s at-large bid percentage (80.2%) shouldn’t be as high as it is. A loss to USC would be detrimental, considering the bubble teams.
Notre Dame, Miami, and USC would all likely jump Oregon if USC were to upset them. With that being said, a loss to Washington would be a lot less detrimental but still dangerous. Luckily for Oregon, the best path forward likely results in missing out on the Big 10 Championship. This bodes well for Oregon as they’d get an extra week of rest and preparation for their playoff game.
6) Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of my favorite dark horses to go deep into the playoffs. They rank No. 13 in pressure rate this season, a common trait among successful playoff teams of the past. In fact, 36 teams (excluding the 2025 season) have finished a season with a pressure rate above 40% since 2019. Of these 36 teams, two were national champions, and the average win percentage was 69.4%.
What concerns me with this team is their lack of success at the quarterback position. Behren Morton has been okay, but not great, and this could hurt them against better teams. Texas Tech has complete control of its destiny with a few weeks left, so its best bet is to lean on the defense and run the dang ball.
5) Georgia Bulldogs
Part of being a successful football analyst is being able to acknowledge when you were wrong and determine why, so that you can learn from it moving forward. My issue with Georgia this season has been that their defense is shaky to start games and doesn’t play its best ball until late in the game. They came out hot against Texas and have shown significant improvement.
In 35 coverage snaps, Ellis Robinson IV was targeted just three times. He allowed two catches for 15 yards while also recording a pass breakup. Robinson is the No. 93 corner in our CBi rankings this season, but he has graded out as a B- or better in four of his last six games. His emergence late in the season will be important for a Bulldogs defense that is No. 108 in pressure rate this season.
4) Ole Miss Rebels
Playing a close game against the team that everyone thinks is going to steal your coach is nerve-wracking. Yet, the Rebels didn’t falter as they heard thousands of fans chanting “We Want Lane!”. They took care of business and effectively secured a playoff spot with their division two transfer backup quarterback leading them to victory.
The Ole Miss offense wasn’t as effective as it usually is, allowing five sacks and throwing an interception. Luckily, the run game was in peak form, which ultimately allowed them to control and win the game. Kewan Lacy finished with 224 rushing yards on 7.2 yards per carry and three touchdowns.
The margins continue to be thin for Rebels, but fortune (and scheduling) is definitely on their side. The most formidable opponents are behind them, and even missing out on the conference championship should have them in the playoffs with relative ease.
3) Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M survived a scare last week. Down 30-3 at the half against South Carolina, the Aggies looked like a completely different team, and everything they had worked for seemed like it was going to go away dramatically. Yet, they weathered the storm to score 28 straight unanswered points en route to a come-from-behind victory for the ages.
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The Aggies out-gained the Gamecocks 371-76 in the second-half, after being out-gained 312-132 in the first-half. Teams that lose the turnover battle by three or more have an 8.7% win percentage in 820 games since 2019. Teams with four or more turnovers in a game have a 16.3% win percentage in 662 games since 2019. Suitable for the Aggies, pulling off the comeback and keeping both their undefeated season and conference championship hopes alive.
2) Ohio State Buckeyes
The Big Ten championship matchup with the Indiana Hoosiers will declare whether Ohio State is primed for a repeat title or if there is still work to be done.
Ohio State can’t predict the teams on its schedule falling apart in such dramatic fashion. Still, even with an enormous Big 10 Championship looming, they have to overcome one more Loud-House-sized hurdle if they want to etch themselves in history.
1) Indiana Hoosiers
Ranking the Indiana Hoosiers as the number one team in any college football playoff ranking two years ago would have been one of the most asinine things you could have done. However, no matter how you try to spin Curt Cignetti’s success in Bloomington, it will likely still undersell it.
After Mendoza’s Heisman moment against Penn State, the Hoosiers started kind of flat against Wisconsin. They only managed four first-half possessions, which resulted in a touchdown, a field goal, and two punts. With just a three-point lead at the half, the Hoosiers immediately turned back to form with a nine-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to open the second half.
