We’re not even done with this year’s College Football Playoff, and we’re already arguing about the next one. Can we at least crown a champion first? Apparently not. But since the conversation is happening anyway, we might as well jump in and break down what’s being discussed, why it matters, and what it could mean for the future of college football.
The Power Struggle: SEC vs. Big Ten
At the center of the debate are two of the most powerful figures in the sport: SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti.
Sankey’s public support of a 16-team playoff is significant. He carries enormous influence in CFP decision-making, and his endorsement alone has a significant impact on the outcome. But it’s not enough. Nothing happens without the Big Ten, and Petitti isn’t sold on stopping at 16.
Sources indicate the Big Ten is using the 16-team format as leverage. Their long-term goal? A 24-team playoff, ideally locked in after two or three seasons.
In exchange for backing a 16-team field now, the Big Ten seeks a commitment to expand to 24 teams in the near future, regardless of whether automatic qualifiers are part of the structure.
That’s where the stalemate comes in. While some conferences might entertain a 24-team field midway through the next six-year CFP deal, there’s strong resistance to committing to that expansion right now.
Ironically, the one scenario that might tempt Sankey is a 24-team playoff without automatic qualifiers, which brings us to the philosophical divide between the SEC and the rest of the conferences.
The Battle Between Auto Bids and At-Large Spots
Petitti initially proposed a 24-team format that included automatic qualifiers, guaranteeing certain conferences a set number of playoff bids, either through play-in games or structured allotments, with the remaining spots filled by at-large selections.
Sankey has been firmly against that idea. His stance is simple: he wants as many SEC teams in the playoff as possible, determined by perceived merit, not capped by conference limits.
But here’s the irony: he might want to be careful what he wishes for.
The national perception of the SEC took a noticeable hit this season. The conference missed the national championship game for the third straight year, and its 4–10 bowl record raised eyebrows across the sport. That decline isn’t accidental. Much of it can be traced back to the NIL era and the transfer portal.
For decades, the SEC’s biggest advantage was depth. Elite players sat behind future NFL stars, waited their turn, developed, and eventually cashed in at the next level. That model is gone. Players no longer wait; they leave to find more money and better playing opportunities.
According to PFSN’s CFB impact grades, which rank teams inside the top 30 on both offense and defense, the numbers tell a clear story: the Big Ten has four teams, the SEC three, the Big 12 two, and the ACC one.
That’s parity, and it’s only growing. As the gap between conferences continues to shrink, a playoff structure without automatic qualifiers could eventually harm the SEC if other leagues continue to close the talent and performance gap.
Beyond conference politics, major questions remain unresolved: How will CFP revenue replace conference championship games? Will expansion diminish the regular season’s importance? Are we just inviting more lopsided playoff blowouts? And how much additional wear and tear can players realistically handle? These concerns are valid, and they only grow as the playoff expands.
A “What If” Look: The 16-Team Model in Action
Let’s play the “what if” game and apply the proposed 16-team model (five highest-ranked conference champions + 11 at-large teams) to this season.
The original 12-team field stays intact. The four additional teams would have been:
- Notre Dame
- BYU
- Texas
- Vanderbilt
Those teams slot in as seeds 11–14, followed by Tulane (15) and James Madison (16).
While the 5–16 and 6–15 matchups remain unchanged, everything else gets shaken up. We’d be looking at first-round games like:
- Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
- Oklahoma vs. Texas (Red River rivalry: on campus, not neutral)
- Alabama vs. BYU
- Miami vs. Notre Dame
That’s must-see TV.
SEC clashes. A Red River rivalry in Norman. Alabama is facing a dangerous non-conference opponent, and a Miami–Notre Dame rematch fueled by real animosity after how this season unfolded.
That’s drama. That’s relevance. That’s playoff football.
A 16-team playoff strikes the right balance. It fixes most of the “snub” arguments, adds elite matchups, and preserves the importance of the regular season. A 24-team playoff, on the other hand, feels like a cash grab. It’s March Madness, but worse.
Basketball players can handle more games. Football players can’t. The physical toll is incomparable, and adding extra playoff rounds risks turning the sport into something unsustainable.
More isn’t always better. Sometimes, just enough is perfect.
