From down 17-0 to thwarting the Oklahoma Sooners 34-24, the Alabama Crimson Tide booked their ticket to the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. Their opponent? The No. 1-ranked and undefeated Indiana Hoosiers. Does Alabama have a shot at pulling off the major upset? Let’s dive into the numbers.
What Are the Chances of Alabama Defeating Indiana in the College Football Playoff?
Entering the first round of the CFP, the PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) gave Alabama a 53% chance of getting its revenge on Oklahoma, and it did just that. The rest of their pregame odds were as follows:
- Make Semifinal: 21.1%
- Make National Championship: 9.9%
- Win National Championship: 4.5%
LET ‘EM KNOW TY SIMPSON 🌹 pic.twitter.com/kQltXpZLZL
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) December 20, 2025
Of course, those odds will likely increase, at least slightly, following the massive win over the Sooners. Now, as impressive as the comeback was, one could argue Oklahoma (pick-six, two missed field goals, and poor special teams play) lost the game more than ‘Bama won it.
In fact, Ty Simpson and Co. went 2 of 12 on third downs and generated a whopping 28 rushing yards and 25 attempts. Yikes. If the offense puts out a similar performance against Indiana, expect not just a loss, but a blowout.
The FPM handed Indiana the second-highest postseason odds through the rest of the CFP, only behind the Ohio State Buckeyes. (For those wondering, it’s because the FPM gives Ohio State a slight edge in a rematch despite losing the Big Ten Championship to the Hoosiers.)
- Make Semifinal: 59.5%
- Make National Championship: 33.0%
- Win National Championship: 18.0%
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Meanwhile, the percent chance Indiana has of knocking off the Crimson Tide in Round 2 was 66% prior to the Friday night clash. The reason? Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza leads the No. 2 offense in PFSN’s CFB Impact grades, and the defense checks in at No. 1.
Anything’s possible in college football, but with a 34% chance (per the FPM), an offense that can’t run the ball, and a defense that has clear holes, Kalen DeBoer’s squad will need to find untapped potential if they want to keep this playoff run alive. Otherwise, Indiana’s going to send them packing in a hurry.
