Identifying which players to sell high or buy low on can be the toughest part of playing fantasy football. When a player is hot, you want to keep riding that streak. And when a player is cold, it can be tough to convince yourself to have anything to do with them.
However, selling a player at their peak or buying them at their lowest is a great way to keep your team competitive throughout the NFL season. One way of identifying such players is to use expected fantasy points (xFP) and the difference between that and actual fantasy point production (xFP%) to identify where regression might be in store.
xFP is calculated based on the usage area in which each player receives his opportunities. These are calculated based on historical data for touches in that area of the field. For example, a carry on the opponent’s 1-yard line carries significantly more xFP than a carry on the half-way line.
Let’s take a look at some running backs who you could look to buy low or sell high on entering the remainder of Week 4.
Players To Buy Low Entering Week 4
Josh Jacobs, RB | Green Bay Packers
It hasn’t been the best start to the 2024 season for Josh Jacobs in terms of efficiency. Despite carrying the ball 62 times, he has yet to find the end zone and, accordingly, is averaging just 10.43 fantasy points per game.
His xFP through those three games is 46.3 for an xFP% of 67.6.
To put that into context, in the last five seasons, only four players who have finished the year with more than 50 fantasy points have been less efficient than Jacobs right now. To go even further, only three players who have scored 100+ fantasy points have finished with an xFP% below 75.
The context of why Jacobs is struggling for efficiency is important. His best game of the season in terms of yards per attempt came in Week 1, when Jordan Love was at quarterback. Since then, that number has dropped from 5.3 to 4.7 and then 3.1. Additionally, Jacobs had just one target with Malik Willis under center.
The Packers’ opponents have been daring Willis to beat them with his arm, and that has made things tough on Jacobs. With Love set to return, things should get easier for Jacobs, and hopefully, he can also get back to seeing two or three targets a game to help boost that value.
Jacobs won’t come dirt cheap, but he should come at a value compared to what he can produce across the rest of the season.
Rico Dowdle, RB | Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys’ RB situation has been a bit of a mess through the first four weeks. Rico Dowdle has scored 34.3 fantasy points through the first four games, with an xFP% of 104.3. He is averaging just 8.95 fantasy points per game, but there are some reasons to be positive.
Dowdle is leading the team in terms of carries (34 vs. 24) and is also ahead of Ezekiel Elliott in terms of targets (12 vs. 8). His elusive rate is 32.8%, which is significantly above Elliott’s 15.8%. Additionally, Dowdle’s rush EPA (expected points added )per play is 0.00 compared to -0.11 for Elliott.
All of those numbers indicate that Dowdle is the better long-term option, making it an intriguing bet for fantasy managers to make coming out of Week 4. The touchdown against the Giants has raised his value a little, but the general perception remains that this is a mess of a backfield to call week-to-week.
Players To Sell High Entering Week 4
J.K. Dobbins, RB | Los Angeles Chargers
J.K. Dobbins got off to a superb start in the first two weeks of the season. Coming back off a season-ending injury in 2023, he rushed for 266 yards and two touchdowns on just 27 attempts. He came back down to earth in Week 3 but is still averaging a league-leading 7.4 yards per attempt.
Through three weeks, Dobbins has 51.4 PPR fantasy points, which is significantly above his xFP of 31.4. To be precise, it is 163.6% above his xFP, and that number is historically unsustainable. In the last five years, only nine running backs who finished the season with more than 50 points had an xFP% above 150.
If we raise the threshold to 100 fantasy points, that number drops to two: De’Von Achane in 2023 and Rashaad Penny in 2021. In fact, when we look at players achieving at least 100 fantasy points in a season, only nine in the last five years have had an xFP% above 130. That is less than two per year, and right now, we have six players this season with more than 50 fantasy points and an xFP% above 130.
Based on that math, we would expect at least four players to fall back toward the pack. Therefore, simple probability and a warning shot in Week 3 against a good defense would suggest now is the time to sell on Dobbins if you can get a good value.
Zach Charbonnnet, RB | Seattle Seahawks
It has been a very up-and-down start for Zach Charbonnet to the 2024 season, but the Seattle Seahawks RB has managed to find the end zone four times in three weeks, which has set his season off to a great start. He has 55.7 fantasy points, which is a 135.5 xFP% through the first three weeks.
Charbonnet is among those six players who have hit the 50 fantasy-point threshold and have an xFP% above 130. On top of that, there is no guarantee that he will play a significant role long term for Seattle once Kenneth Walker III is healthy.
In Week 1, with Walker starting, Charbonnet played just 34% of the snaps and could only muster 12 rushing yards on eight attempts. If it weren’t for a long touchdown reception, his Week 1 fantasy number would have been well below five, even in PPR. He wasn’t much better in Week 2, averaging 2.71 yards per attempt on the ground.
Charbonnet salvaged his day with a rushing touchdown and five receptions for 31 yards.
There will be someone out there looking at Charbonnet’s four touchdowns and 90% snap rate in the last two weeks who believes that he can remain the starter when Walker returns. At best, this is likely to be a timeshare, so now is the time to sell before Walker gets back on the field.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.