The Dallas Cowboys have lost consecutive games, and game script has largely impacted their running back rotation. They travel to New York as a 5.5-point favorite to face the Giants to kick off Week 4, and fantasy football managers have their eye on a run-heavy game script.
Can you count on either (or both) of their running backs?
Should You Start Ezekiel Elliott or Rico Dowdle in Week 4?
In three weeks, four times has a running back reached double digits in terms of PPR points against the Giants this season, opening the door for fantasy managers to look at Dallas’ backfield with optimism.
- Week 1: Aaron Jones (1.2 PPR points per touch)
- Week 2: Brian Robinson Jr. (0.8 PPR points per touch)
- Week 2: Austin Ekeler (1.1 PPR points per touch)
- Week 3: Jerome Ford (0.8 PPR points per touch)
The question this week is less about whether these backs can be efficient with the work and more about value. Will either (or both) get their hands on the ball enough times to squeak inside the top 25 at the position?
The profiles of Elliott and Dowdle are far from complete, but both have some interesting parts that, in any given week, can produce fantasy value.
- Elliott owns a 3-0 red-zone touch edge over Dowdle.
- Dowdle owns an 11-7 target edge over Elliott.
Due to the distribution of opportunities, neither of these backs are a must-play, but both are squarely on the Flex radar for teams already dealing with injuries and/or uncertainty at the position.
Elliott’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Elliott has seen his snap share trend in the wrong direction (50% snap share in Week 1, 39.4% in Week 2, and just 20% last week). And without any explosion left in his veteran legs, you’re chasing a touchdown if you’re considering going this path.
In theory, this is the right situation to do that. You’ve got a heavy favorite on short rest, but what’s the ceiling?
If Elliott’s touch count is going to tap out at 10, there’s a chance he could score and still not pay the bills (his next 10-yard rush this season will be his first).
If I have to pick a Cowboys back in this spot, it’s Elliott, but that’s the beauty in fantasy — you’re not under any obligation at all to play a Cowboys RB.
Dowdle’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Dowdle was targeted on the first play of Week 3 and touched the ball on each of Dallas’ first three plays. In an offense that always ranks among the top 10 in pass rate over expectation, I love seeing consecutive five-target contests from the 26-year-old.
Rico Dowdle on Toss pic.twitter.com/TSxf9TrqS5
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 23, 2024
For me to commit to Dowdle as a Flex option, I need to see some growth in the snap share department. He’s checked in between 43-46% in all three games this season, and with Elliott still the favorite to get the high-value rush attempts, that’s just not enough field time to realize the potential I believe him to have.
Elliott may be my pick for Week 4, but for Weeks 4-18, give me Dowdle as the top-scoring back in Dallas.