Is Amon-Ra St. Brown dynasty fantasy football‘s top receiver? The Detroit Lions‘ WR1 has opened his career with three straight 90+ catch seasons and continues to improve his yards-per-catch average, all while sustaining an elite catch rate.
The case can certainly be made, and with the Lions functioning as a competitive team as opposed to one that is looking to make drastic changes, his high-volume role appears destined to remain through not only 2024, but for the foreseeable future!
How impactful has he been since breaking out down the stretch of the 2021 season?
Since Week 13 of his rookie season, St. Brown is the seventh-highest-scoring player in all of fantasy (half-PPR). That includes the quarterback position which is, by nature, much higher scoring.
Over that stretch, St. Brown has 15.2 more fantasy points than Davante Adams despite playing one less game, and he’s even managed to outscore his quarterback, something that only the truly elite are capable of doing.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Dynasty Outlook
St. Brown had a nice college career at USC, but he didn’t generate a ton of hype in NFL circles. He averaged just under six catches per game as a Trojan, though concerns about his ability to deal with the physicality of the pro game resulted in his falling to the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
The top of the WR draft board in 2021 was loaded with prospects like Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith, who had elite profiles and pedigree. In comparison, St. Brown was the No. 17 wideout selected in that draft, going behind Amari Rodgers, Anthony Schwartz, and Dez Fitzpatrick.
Through three seasons:
- Chase (45 games played): 268 catches, 3,717 yards, 29 TDs
- Waddle (47 games): 251 catches, 3,385 yards, 18 TDs
- Smith (50 games): 240 catches, 3,178 yards, 19 TDs
- St. Brown (49 games): 315 catches, 3,588 yards, 21 TDs
The “Sun God” was a WR1 in half-PPR fantasy leagues 10 times throughout the 2023 season and continues to impress at every turn. His catch rate remained elite this past year with his aDOT (average depth of target) increasing by 21.4%.
Translation — his ability to create space/throwing windows extends down the field.
Jared Goff finds Amon-Ra St. Brown who breaks is off for 4️⃣4️⃣ yards ❕ pic.twitter.com/v6NnIUSQrS
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 31, 2023
St. Brown is proving capable of winning at multiple levels and has the type of team stability that appeals to dynasty managers.
Say what you will about QB Jared Goff, but he’s an above-average passer (67% completion percentage in three of his past four seasons and 7.6 YPA in consecutive years) who is yet to turn 30 years old and has developed a rapport with the talented slot receiver. He’s plenty capable of doing what Kirk Cousins did for Justin Jefferson for years, a situation that had zero fantasy managers complaining!
As far as the skill positions in Detroit go, there is the type of upside that makes this a threatening offense for years to come. WR Jameson Williams started showing signs of development in his second season and rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs wasted no time in impressing with 1,261 yards and 11 scores.
Dan Campbell led this Lions team to a 2023 NFC North crown, and, soon after, its first playoff win in 32 years. Detroit has identified Campbell as its coach of the present and future, giving St. Brown stability everywhere you could ask for from a fantasy standpoint.
St. Brown’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does St. Brown land in the dynasty WR landscape as we continue with the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where St. Brown lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Tyreek Hill | MIA
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Justin Jefferson | MIN
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
11) Puka Nacua | LAR
12) Nico Collins | HOU
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) Rashee Rice | KC
15) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
16) DJ Moore | CHI
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Drake London | ATL
19) Malik Nabers | FA
20) Tee Higgins | CIN
Should You Trade St. Brown in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading St. Brown? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
My top tier at the receiver position in dynasty leagues is a group of seven and is a fluid situation as team rosters are in flux during the offseason. While a player like St. Brown is unlikely to see much change around him, WRs like Justin Jefferson and Garrett Wilson are in this class of fantasy assets and carry QB question marks.
St. Brown is as safe as anyone on the dynasty board, and that makes him a great trade target — but he won’t come cheap. That said, I’d trade any non-WR for St. Brown.
We know that successful dynasty teams are built around receiver stability, which is exactly what you’re getting here. The QB position is deep and has a serious influx of talent preparing to enter the league.
The RB position has some very promising talents at the top of the board, but the career expectancy is far shorter than that of a player like St. Brown. If your goal is to build a solid short- (and long-) term roster, he’s the percentage play.
Acquiring St. Brown in dynasty is going to cost a premium. And if you pick at the end of the first round, you might not get a chance to acquire his services in redraft in 2024, either.
START TRADING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
St. Brown is every bit as good as his career numbers suggest — don’t overthink it. He’s worth acquiring. It’s just a matter of not giving up too much to get him, but in a dynasty format that places more value on the WR position, that is getting difficult to do!
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