The hype train surrounding Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs picked up a ton of steam as the 2023 NFL season progressed.
After scoring 11 touchdowns over the last 11 games of his rookie campaign, how much has Gibbs’ dynasty fantasy football value skyrocketed heading into his second season?
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Dynasty Outlook
In the day and age where feature bell-cow running backs are a rare commodity, Gibbs managed to make a huge fantasy impact with a hyper-efficient rookie year. In 2023, he was the only RB to finish inside in the top 10 at the position in full-PPR formats with fewer than 200 carries.
This should tell you just how productive he was on a per-touch basis while splitting a significant amount of work with David Montgomery as a rookie.
Through the first month of the 2023 season, fantasy managers who invested heavily into RB D’Andre Swift from just a season prior were likely having worrisome flashbacks to Swift working behind Jamaal Williams in 2022.
Gibbs saw a combined 22 carries in the three games when Montgomery was very active to start the year. To make matters worse, he missed a pair of games after his slow start due to a hamstring injury.
But once he finally had a breakout performance against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7, Gibbs never looked back.
Need proof? From Week 7 through the end of the season, Gibbs was the overall RB4 behind San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White, and New York Jets RB Breece Hall with 1,012 total yards and 11 TDs.
It’s worth noting that the other players ahead of him weren’t splitting work with any significant contributors in their respective backfields. For some context, Montgomery saw 135 total touches and scored seven rushing touchdowns during that same time frame.
Gibbs became the 15th running back since 2000 to rush for over 400 yards and catch 50 passes in their rookie season. His 52 receptions on 71 targets in 2023 confirmed his ability to be a big contributor in the passing game for years to come.
Gibbs’ advanced metrics also make a strong case for him to be the top dynasty RB heading into 2024. His 2.5 yards-after-contact average ranks first in the NFL among players who saw more than 100 carries this season.
In addition, Gibbs’ 20 broken tackles in 2023 rank seventh among running backs. It’s worth noting only he and Jaylen Warren were the only backs with fewer than 180 carries who managed to finish inside the top seven in this category.
Gibbs’ rookie season confirmed that he has the dynamic skill set that could translate into the type of league-winning fantasy production we see from the elite players at the position very shortly. Unfortunately, the reality of another timeshare in the Lions’ backfield still exists heading into next year with Montgomery under contract through 2025.
This does cap Gibbs’ fantasy ceiling in some capacity over the next few years.
His target share could also be a bit tricky to project, with players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams likely to have significant roles in the passing attack in 2024.
If you could guarantee me that Montgomery wouldn’t have 200+ carries next year, then Gibbs would have a real claim to the top RB spot in my dynasty rankings.
Unfortunately, Montgomery has 200+ rushing attempts in the last five seasons, which means he’s still going to be a big factor in this backfield in 2024. This will keep Gibbs from reaching that RB1 overall territory, but he’s still in elite company.
Gibbs’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Gibbs land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Tate’s latest rankings, featuring where Gibbs lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Derek Tate’s Top 20 Dynasty RB Rankings
) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Breece Hall | NYJ
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Kyren Williams | LAR
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Saquon Barkley | NYG
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) James Cook | BUF
12) De’Von Achane | MIA
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Tyjae Spears | TEN
17) Josh Jacobs | LV
18) Austin Ekeler | LAC
19) D’Andre Swift | PHI
20) Tony Pollard | DAL
Should You Trade Gibbs in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Gibbs? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
Gibbs is the type of young asset dynasty managers can build their foundation of their roster around for years to come. Similar to Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, Gibbs shareholders shouldn’t be eager whatsoever to trade the young back off of their roster unless they get a massive haul in return.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
Sure, certain roster construction situations and unforeseen egregious overpay trade offers always warrant dealing any player, but I have Gibbs as a stronghold heading into 2024.
If you receive an offer for the playmaking RB, make sure to run it through our free Trade Analyzer to view whether or not it’s a move you should consider!
With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.
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