Heading into 2023, the Garrett Wilson dynasty ranking was that of a foundational piece. With Aaron Rodgers joining the New York Jets, the fantasy football community was tabbing him as the next Davante Adams, and Rodgers himself did very little to stop that comparison.
After another underwhelming season of QB play following the Rodgers injury, the Jets failed to maximize their elite talent. In theory, that is set to change in 2024. Should dynasty managers be looking to get in or out of the Wilson business entering his age-24 season?
Garrett Wilson’s Dynasty Outlook
To say that the 10th overall pick in 2022 hasn’t gotten much help would be an understatement to the highest degree. Since Wilson entered the league, here are the instances in which a team as a whole has failed to post a passer rating north of 75.0:
- 2022 New York Jets
- 2023 New York Jets
- 2023 New England Patriots
- 2023 Cleveland Browns
Despite the Jets’ struggles, Wilson has given fantasy managers 80+ catches and 1,000+ yards in both of his NFL seasons.
That may not be the league-winning production that you had in mind when you spent a first-round pick on him in your rookie draft, but all things considered, that’s a pretty impressive start to a career.
In fact, Wilson is just one of seven receivers since 2000 to open his career with a pair of 80-grab seasons:
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Jarvis Landry
- Michael Thomas
- Justin Jefferson
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
The volume has been strong but, as you’d guess, the quality in that quantity has been lacking. After scoring 12 times in his final season at Ohio State, Wilson has found the end zone on just seven of his 178 catches (315 targets) at the professional level.
Given his ability to earn targets in less-than-ideal circumstances, I have no issue in assuming that the TD equity will correct once the play under center improves. Wilson isn’t a buy-low candidate because his talent and pedigree are well-known, but he’s very much a dynasty building block that will likely see his value increase with time.
Kyle Soppe’s Top 20 Dynasty WR Rankings
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) Stefon Diggs | BUF
Should You Trade Wilson in Dynasty?
Moving on from Wilson at this point would be tough to justify. You’ve sat through consecutive worst-case-scenario seasons, which is hard to swallow. Yet, elite dynasty managers show patience and conviction with players like this.
I understand that’s easier said than done, so let me help with a player comparison.
- Wilson through two seasons: 2,145 receiving yards, 56.5% catch rate, seven TDs
- Andre Johnson’s first two seasons: 2,118 receiving yards, 58.5% catch rate, 10 TDs
Johnson was a first-round pick who had to suffer through some lean David Carr seasons to open his career, but he eventually got league-average QB play in the form of Matt Schaub.
That’s not exactly a high QB bar, but it was enough to allow his talent to shine bright. Johnson was the only player with 8+ TD receptions in every season from 2007-10 and led the NFL in receiving yards per game over that stretch (96.5, no other receiver was within 14 yards per game).
Is Wilson this generation’s Johnson? Could he be better? The fact that those questions are reasonable to ask means that you owe it to your dynasty roster to see this through.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
If Wilson fails with reasonable QB play in 2024, we can circle back to this conversation. I’m happy to bet against that being the case.
