The 2023 NFL Draft will be the biggest event in NFL history to date. With more states legalizing sports betting since even last year’s event, it’s important for fans and bettors to know the impact of the betting market and the best sports betting strategies.
Top sportsbooks are all offering odds on where each player will be picked, so we decided to do a mock draft based on those odds. We’ll break down what each pick would mean for each team and whether we agree with the odds and selection, or if we’d go another direction.
The below odds were provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. They are accurate as of 7:00 p.m. ET on April 25, 2023. The odds showcased after each selection are what the sportsbook offers for that player being selected in that position.
NFL Draft Predictions for the First Round
The NFL Draft order may change once some big names start falling, but we’re operating under the assumption that trade activity will be at a minimum. Be sure to read the history of betting on the NFL, so you know how we got to the point where we can follow betting trends.
1) Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (-1600)
Despite some movement in recent days that Will Levis could be the pick at No. 1 due to a bizarre Reddit post, Bryce Young is still the overwhelming favorite to be the Panthers’ next franchise quarterback. Panthers head coach Frank Reich has spent the offseason trying to convince everyone he “won’t let height” determine who he wants with the top pick. Shortly after pro days wrapped, Young entered the driver’s seat for No. 1.
Time will tell whether this was a good pick. While it’s easy to love Young’s gamer mentality and excellent collegiate résumé, he’s the least physically gifted of the top-five quarterbacks in the class. Young’s a historical aberration with his slight frame, and now Reich will need to thread the needle of maximizing his desire to break the pocket by protecting his body from hits.
2) Houston Texans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (+125)
Now the shocking favorite to go No. 2 overall, Will Levis has made quite the climb after slipping to pick 19 in most mocks a week ago. However, if Levis were to go No. 2, I don’t think Houston would be the team taking him. As ESPN’s Todd McShay noted, the Colts “love” Levis, and the Texans could be baiting their AFC South rival for a trade-up.
[the_ad_group id=”65007″]
It’s hard to guess whether Chris Ballard will finally bite the bullet and be aggressive in a trade-up for his quarterback. I don’t think he needs to, or that Nick Caserio will get the best of him like that. This feels like sportsbooks taking advantage of Houston’s previous dysfunction while they offload their betting liabilities elsewhere.
I think the better bet is on Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson going No. 2 overall rather than Levis.
3) Arizona Cardinals: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech (+300)
It’s been somewhat shocking to see Anderson be usurped by Tyree Wilson throughout this offseason. While Wilson is a great athlete who looks the part of a dominant player, Anderson was actually dominant on the field throughout his career. Wilson, who was solid, dealt with a foot injury that was medically cleared by the Cardinals.
MORE: 100% FREE NFL Mock Draft Simulator
Arizona is “looking to move down,” but haven’t had much luck thus far. If that continues, then Wilson appears to have momentum for new head coach Jonathan Gannon. It’s a risk that Wilson stays healthy and outperforms the better overall football player, but Wilson has the frame and upside to prove to be the right pick.
4) Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (+200)
The Colts aren’t much easier to project than the Texans. They’ve been linked to Levis, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson across various reports. Each is believable, too, so it’s possible there’s a fracture within the organization’s front office.
The wild card is Stroud. He reportedly “ghosted” the Manning Passing Academy, which would seemingly bode poorly for him since Colts owner Jim Irsay is still close with Peyton Manning. But he’s clearly the best passer of the group and less of a project than his peers.
This is the smart pick, but the value isn’t tremendous since the Colts are so hard to project. I could just as easily see Houston taking Stroud or the Buckeyes star falling to Las Vegas at 7.
5) Seattle Seahawks: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (+225)
As we get closer to the draft, it seems as though the market is settling on this being where either Anthony Richardson or star Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter goes. Richardson fits Seattle’s mold of athlete they often desire at other positions, and the presence of Geno Smith gives them at least a year to develop the toolsy prospect. This might also be Seattle’s only chance to land a top quarterback prospect in the coming years.
The sharp bet would be that Seattle takes a cornerback. If Richardson is gone, it’s certainly possible they take Carter, since he also fills a massive need and is easily the best player on the board. But character matters, and Seattle went through a tough saga with Malik McDowell a few years back.
I’d consider Christian Gonzalez as a smart long-shot pick at +2000, as the team still needs a corner, and he fits their requirements perfectly.
6) Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (-130)
Seeing minus odds this late in the top 10 is unusual. The Lions preferring the smaller, less athletically gifted corner with better tape in Devon Witherspoon compared to Gonzalez is logical, though. Detroit’s coaching staff is filled with former players who were often scrappier than physically imposing, so they may have a bias for those players.
MORE: Would the Lions Move Up for a Quarterback?
Witherspoon would be a solid addition to their hurting secondary. He’s feisty, fast, and versatile. Even with these odds, the biggest concern I’d have is that Detroit pivots and takes Carter if he’s on the board. There will be other good corners still on the board with Detroit’s second first-round pick but not someone of Carter’s ilk.
7) Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (+275)
The Raiders’ draft pick odds have swung between Christian Gonzalez and Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson Jr. Both would address massive needs for the Raiders, and it’s difficult to envision them having to pass up one position or the other here. What Vegas must weigh is the class’ depth at both positions and whether they can find a competent starter later on at the position they don’t address here.
Barring a surprising selection of a quarterback or Carter, Gonzalez certainly fits the bill for the Raiders’ secondary. Possessing elite physical traits, he’s the physical mold of what a CB1 looks like.
8) Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (+200)
Here’s where the draft gets weird. Bijan Robinson is a fantastic running back talent, but it’s hard to imagine the Falcons would double down on their ground game when it’s already a strength. Investing a first-round pick into a backfield that has three players who averaged at least 4.8 yards per carry with at least 76 touches seems wasteful.
Instead, I’d recommend looking at an edge defender. With Nolan Smith at +250 and Lukas Van Ness at +380, bettors can get a huge return if they make the correct guess.
9) Chicago Bears: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (+275)
Arguably the most talented player in the draft, could the Bears really pull off such a heist after trading out from No. 1? Jalen Carter is certainly not without flaws as the big man has endured a brutally rough offseason. However, it’s possible the young man has simply made mistakes and will benefit from more direction and support from his peers.
The Bears may get leapfrogged if they try to wait out Carter falling to them, and they may be fine with that. With needs along the offensive and defensive lines, Chicago simply needs the best available player.
10) Philadelphia Eagles: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern (+250)
The Eagles could use a reinforcement along their offensive line, but I’d be surprised if oddsmakers nail this pick. Peter Skoronski is a great talent, but taking a first-round guard prospect is far-fetched when Philadelphia has bigger needs in their secondary at cornerback and EDGE.
