PFSN wants to set you up to be a smarter fan this Divisional Round Weekend. Whether you’re rooting for your team or placing bets, here are the most important stats, trends, notes, and insights for every NFL playoff matchup. We know gathering all the information can be time-consuming, which is why we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to.
The top seeds, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, make their playoff debut this weekend. Each has a -3 turnover margin. Nine teams have won the Super Bowl after having a negative turnover margin in the regular season.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
Playoff: Josh Allen recorded his first career postseason fourth quarter comeback against the Jaguars. He has 17 during the regular season in his career, including four this season.
​Team: The Buffalo Bills are 0-5 when scoring 20 points or fewer, while being 13-0 when scoring more than 20, including the Wild Card win.
QB: Josh Allen’s PFSN’s Quarterback Impact Metric (QBi) score of 83.4 (B) against the Jacksonville Jaguars was the fourth-best of his postseason career, and marked the fourth time he posted the highest QBi in the NFL during a Wild Card or Divisional Round week.
OFF: Against the Jaguars, James Cook was held to 46 yards on 15 rushes. Excluding Week 18, when he had only two carries, the Wild Card game marked his second-lowest rushing yardage total in any game this season, with the lowest being 44 yards in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens.
DEF: The 14 points allowed to the Jaguars in the fourth quarter tied for the most points Buffalo has allowed in any fourth quarter during this season.
Denver Broncos
Playoff: Sean Payton is making his 11th postseason appearance as a head coach. He’s 9-9 and won the Super Bowl with the Saints in 2009. This is the third time Payton has earned the top seed, having achieved this in 2009 and 2018 with the New Orleans Saints and now with the Denver Broncos. In 2018, his Saints lost to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship game.
Team: Denver played in 13 one-score games, one shy of the NFL record. Denver went 11-2 in those games, including 5-0 at home. Every road game was a one-score game. The next Denver trip would be for the Super Bowl.
QB: Bo Nix had a QBi score of 69.9 (D+) in last season’s Wild Card game in Buffalo. Nix completed his first two passes, including a 43-yard touchdown to give the Broncos a 7-0 lead over the Bills. Nix would complete only 11 of 20 passes for 82 yards the rest of the way as the Broncos lost 31-7.
OFF: Denver recorded a PFSN’s Offense Impact Metric (OFFi) of 75.9 (C) for the second straight season. In Payton’s first year, the Broncos finished with a 67.0 (D+) OFFi.
DEF: The Broncos led the league in PFSN’s Defense Impact (DEFi) this season and posted the eighth-best DEFi since 2000. It’s the second straight year Denver led the league in DEFi.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Playoff: Kyle Shanahan is 4-0 as head coach in the Divisional Round, with three wins at home. He has won at least two games in each of his four previous postseasons.
​Team: The San Francisco 49ers have won four straight road games against the Seattle Seahawks, averaging a 10.5-point victory. Seattle scored 63 total points in those games, including 13 in three of them.
​QB: Brock Purdy had his worst QBi score of the season in Week 18 with a 66.3 (D) against Seattle, but his season average of 92.1 (A-) led the NFL.
​OFF: In Week 18 against the Seahawks, the 49ers registered an OFFi score of 62.9 (D-), which was the team’s lowest score since the 2022 NFC Championship game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Purdy and Josh Johnson, the only active quarterbacks, were injured in that game.
​DEF: San Francisco allowed 13 points in each game against Seattle. The Seahawks scored 30.5 points per game in the other 15 games. On the other side, Seattle held San Francisco to 10.0 points per game while the 49ers averaged 27.8 against different opponents.
Seattle Seahawks
Playoff: Mike Macdonald is one of four head coaches making their playoff debuts, along with Liam Coen, Ben Johnson, and Dave Canales. They went 2-2 last week.
Team: Seattle lost three games by a total of nine points, marking the third-fewest combined points by a team with three losses. The 2000 Titans (7 points) and 2022 Bills (8 points) rank ahead of the Seahawks.
QB: In his lone career playoff appearance during last season’s Wild Card round, Sam Darnold posted a QBi of 69.3 (D+), finishing 25-of-40 for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 27-9 loss to the Rams.
OFF: Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s yards per reception jumped to 15.1 from 11.3 last season, and he also recorded the league’s second-best PFSN’s Wide Receiver Impact (WRi) score of 94.4 (A) this season, up from 85.0 (B) last season.
DEF: The Seahawks finished third in DEFi this season, behind the Broncos and Houston Texans. Notably, each defense has achieved a high overall ranking since 2000: the Broncos ranked 8th in DEFi season score, the Texans 10th, and the Seahawks 19th.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Houston Texans
Playoff: Houston has seven all-time postseason wins, five of which have been by at least 13 points. Six of the franchise’s eight postseason losses have been by at least 13 points.
​Team: All five of Houston’s losses have been in one-score games, including the first three weeks of the season. The Texans are 7-5 in one-score games.
​QB: C.J. Stroud was sacked three times against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card game after being sacked one time in the final four weeks. Including playoffs, Stroud has now been sacked 26 times this season after 101 sacks in his first two seasons.
​OFF: Over the last ten games, the Texans have averaged 26.6 points per game, which is eighth in the NFL in that stretch. In the first eight games, Houston scored 21.0 points per game, which was 24th at that time.
​DEF: Houston returned a fumble and an interception for touchdowns in the fourth quarter against the Steelers. The two fourth quarter turnovers matched what the Texans did during the regular season when they led the NFL with 15 turnovers in the fourth quarter.
New England Patriots
Playoff: The New England Patriots will play a home game in the Divisional Round for the 11th consecutive time. The last time the Patriots played a road game in the Divisional Round was 2007.
Team: Including the Wild Card game, the Patriots have played four teams that finished with a winning record (Steelers, Bills twice, Los Angeles Chargers). New England is 2-2 in those games, with both losses coming at home.
QB: Drake Maye finished second in the NFL with a QBi score of 91.1(A-). His 97.8 (A+) in Week 17 against the New York Jets was the second-best since 2000 behind Peyton Manning during the 2007 season. Three of Maye’s five lowest QBi games were Patriots losses.
OFF: New England scored 16 points in the Wild Card game against the Chargers. It was the first time since Week 3 that they scored under 23 points. The Patriots finished second in the league in OFFi after finishing 26th last season.
DEF: New England has held opponents to 13.4 points per game in 15 wins, including six games allowing 13 points or fewer. The Chargers scored three in the Wild Card game. In their three losses, the Patriots have allowed an average of 25.3 points per game.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Los Angeles Rams
Playoff: Sean McVay’s Rams are 1-2 in the Divisional Round when playing the week before. The only season Los Angeles won the second playoff game after winning the Wild Card was 2021, the year they won the Super Bowl.
Team: The Rams are 5-3 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. The three losses were by a combined ten points. Two of the losses were in overtime, and the third was against the Eagles when Los Angeles had a potential game-winning 44-yard field goal blocked on the final play.
QB: Matthew Stafford recorded a QBi score of 73.4 (C) against the Panthers last week, which was his second-lowest career score in a playoff game. It was the third-lowest score of the week, ahead of only Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers.
OFF: Since Week 7, the Rams have scored 24 or more points in ten of 11 games. The only exception was a 21-19 win against the 49ers in Week 10. The Rams led the NFL with the best OFFi (92.3, A-) during the regular season.
DEF: Through Wild Card Weekend, the Rams are tied with the Jaguars with ten games in which they forced multiple turnovers. Los Angeles has won nine of the ten games, including its victory last week against the Carolina Panthers. The Chicago Bears have had nine such games and are 9-0 when having at least two takeaways.
Chicago Bears
Playoff: Chicago has made the conference championship game three times since winning the Super Bowl during the 1985 season. They are 1-2 in those games, with the only win during the 2006 season.
Team: The Bears outscored the Green Bay Packers 25-6 in the fourth quarter of the Wild Card game. For the season, Chicago ranked fifth in point differential during the fourth quarter and overtime. They ranked second in fourth quarter/overtime points scored and 30th in points allowed after the third quarter during the regular season.
QB: Including playoffs, Caleb Williams has 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter/overtime. That is the second most behind Matthew Stafford’s 16. However, Williams has only completed 55.2% of his fourth quarter/overtime, which is 30th in the league.
OFF: In the last three games, Colston Loveland caught 24 passes for 322 yards and two touchdowns, compared to 42 catches for 528 yards and four touchdowns in the first 14 games.
DEF: The Bears had six games in which they committed at least three takeaways, tying them with Jacksonville for the most in the league; Chicago won all six games. The Bears led the NFL with 33 takeaways.
