While the top of the College Football Playoff rankings features familiar powerhouse programs (and even a surprising Indiana), the lower half of the top 12 offers several unexpected storylines shaped by the evolving dynamics of the sport.
Leveraging PFSN’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we can simulate the remainder of the season to project which teams currently have the strongest chances of reaching the 2025 College Football Playoff.
12) Oklahoma Sooners
- PFSN FPM Probability: 34.1%
Impact Scores offensively for the Oklahoma Sooners are a bit deflated in large part due to John Mateer’s injury. Regardless, with the eighth toughest remaining strength of schedule they are going to need Mateer and company to rally down the stretch and help out the defense if they want to make the playoffs.
In a very odd turn of events that everyone should have seen coming, a struggling Arch Manning and Texas offense has had the most success on the Sooners this season, almost totaling a positive EPA (expected points added) in the win. That loss drastically lowered Oklahoma’s playoff chances, but they aren’t anywhere near elimination status yet.
11) Cincinnati Bearcats
- PFSN FPM Probability: 34.8%
Cincinnati ranks 11th in our playoff rankings with a 34.8% chance of making the playoffs. They haven’t lost since the heartbreaker to Nebraska in week one, but things are about to get much harder. Not only do they have the 10th-toughest strength of schedule according to our metrics, but they also rank fourth in largest change from current to future strength of schedule.
The only teams that face an even more drastic switch-up are all pretty much eliminated from contention anyway. Nonetheless, the Bearcats have a fighter’s chance with an offense that has the 22nd most EPA from explosive plays, according to TruMedia.
10) Vanderbilt Commodores
- PFSN FPM Probability: 36.9%
Diego Pavia might not be an NFL-caliber quarterback, but he will absolutely go down as one of the greatest college quarterbacks. He’s got moxy, poise, and pure determination and grit. Vanderbilt, before he got there, was one of the worst SEC teams for quite some time. Now, they have a 37% chance to make the playoffs despite a remaining strength of schedule that ranks 17th in FBS.
After the win over LSU, Vanderbilt showed they are more than just a middling SEC team. They aren’t quite the level of Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M, but they have proven they absolutely deserve a seat at the table.
9) Oregon Ducks
- PFSN FPM Probability: 47.1%
Oregon’s defense held the Nittany Lions to just 276 yards of total offense, the seventh-worst performance since the 2019 season. They also managed to hold the Fernando Mendoza led Indiana Hoosiers to a negative offensive EPA, which only Iowa has matched this season. In fact, I would argue the loss is more-so on the offense than the defense, especially when you consider the huge pick six from the Ducks.
Dante Moore is still one of the top quarterback prospects in the nation and the offense will get theirs, but the Ducks will need to go out and silence the haters after the tough loss knocked them from tier one to tier two in our playoff rankings.
8) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
- PFSN FPM Probability: 61.8%
Georgia Tech survived one of the most overrated performances you will see to remain undefeated and keep their playoff hopes alive. Duke out-gained the Yellow Jackets by 65 total yards, dominated the time of possession, and mostly outplayed them for a majority of this game. Unfortunately, some red zone woes, including a 90+ yard fumble recovery for a touchdown and a botched hold on a field goal gave Tech the undeserving win.
With that being said, Georgia Tech has a darn good chance to enter the game against Georgia with an undefeated record and one huge opportunity to make the college football playoffs. I think they will slip up before that to either Pittsburgh or NC State but it’s hard to deny their current body of work. They have found ways to win which is ultimately what matters.
7) BYU Cougars
- PFSN FPM Probability: 62.8%
BYU wasn’t as respected earlier in the season because they hadn’t played anyone tough. Fast forward to now, they’ve got the 52nd toughest strength of schedule behind them, but have the 13th toughest strength of schedule in front of them. If people wanted a battle-tested Cougars, they will get it.
Led by a true freshman quarterback wearing an elite number (47), the Cougars benefit greatly from their tough games being backloaded. This has given them the opportunity to grow as a team. As Texas Tech has already proven, winning out will be paramount to BYU’s playoff chances, as many expect the Big 12 to be a one-bid league this year.
6) Ole Miss Rebels
- PFSN FPM Probability: 72.9%
The ebs and flows of the college football season will never cease to exist. After Trinidad Chambliss made his mark with a solid performance over LSU, many (including myself) doubted this Ole Miss football team claiming that they can’t hang with the big boys. Yet, after a loss to the Bulldogs, I am now even more optimistic about this Rebels team.
The defense is still an issue and Georgia proved that in the shoot-out last week. Even still, being able to play like that against a Kirby Smart defense has to count for something. With a relatively weak remaining strength of schedule, the Rebels are absolutely right in the thick of the playoff race.
5) Georgia Bulldogs
- PFSN FPM Probability: 79.7%
Georgia’s loss to Alabama was far from a season-ending setback. In the 12-team playoff era of college football, an occasional stumble doesn’t spell doom, especially for a program like Georgia, whose recent dominance still earns it plenty of benefit of the doubt.
Still, the performance against Ole Miss carried a different tone. The Bulldogs’ defense struggled to contain Chambliss, and head coach Kirby Smart appeared to be outcoached by Lane Kiffin for much of the game.
Even with those issues, Georgia enters the next week sitting at 6-1 and finding rhythm again on both sides of the ball. The offense is hitting its stride, while the defense — though inconsistent early — is trending up as games progress.
The numbers bear that out: Georgia ranks 121st and 48th in first- and second-quarter points per drive allowed, 96th in the first half overall, but climbs to 15th after halftime, including 34th in the third quarter and 19th in the fourth.
The message is clear: if you don’t build an early lead on Georgia, the Bulldogs are likely to make you pay later.
4) Alabama Crimson Tide
- PFSN FPM Probability: 85.8%
At this time in week 6, Ty Simpson ranked 18th in our QBi Impact rankings. Now, he ranks first and is likely to be the first quarterback taken off the board in the draft if he decides to declare. Ryan Williams finally looks like he’s out of his slump, and the Alabama offense as a whole might just be the hottest in football.
Since Florida State in week one, the Crimson Tide has had two top 10 finishes, four top 26 finishes, and all of their weekly grades have been a C+ or better on offense. With only the 41st-ranked strength of schedule remaining and a slew of marquee wins already, the Crimson Tide are rolling.
3) Texas A&M Aggies
- PFSN FPM Probability: 87.2%
It hasn’t always been flawless, but Texas A&M continues to find ways to win, remaining unbeaten past the midway point of the season.
The Aggies seem to alternate which side of the ball takes center stage each week. In their victories over Notre Dame and Arkansas, the offense carried the load, while the defense took over in matchups against Auburn, Florida, and Mississippi State.
Texas A&M is one of the few programs boasting both an offense and a defense ranked inside the top 25 of the PFSN College Impact metrics, a combination that has historically signaled sustained success. If the Aggies can maintain this balance and consistency, they’ll remain firmly in contention as the season unfolds.
2) Indiana Hoosiers
- PFSN FPM Probability: 90.3%
“The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the premier teams in the Big 10. That is a statement I never thought I’d say about the sport of football.”
I said it before their statement win over Oregon, and now it feels just as accurate when describing their place among the nation’s elite. The Hoosiers’ defense continues to prove why it ranks third in our Impact rankings, holding Oregon’s high-powered offense in check with a dominant performance.
With one of the weaker remaining schedules among the contenders, Indiana appears well-positioned for a potential No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown in the Big Ten Championship Game — a clash that could define the 2025 college football season.
1) Ohio State Buckeyes
- PFSN FPM Probability: 94.7%
The highest chance of making the 2025 College Football Playoff still belongs to the reigning champions. Ohio State’s defense has come out on fire this year and is playing at a historically great level. With the second-highest Defensive Impact score since 2019 and the best points per game allowed since 2019, this defense has put the Buckeyes in a supreme position to repeat as national champs.
One of the most underrated benefits of having a defense like this is the ability to slowly progress offensively. Well, Julian Sayin looks to have officially arrived. He is having one of the most accurate seasons in college football history, according to completion percentage over expected numbers from CFBNumbers on X.
