As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Zach Ertz’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Zach Ertz’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
When the Arizona Cardinals acquired Ertz in 2021 for a fifth-round pick and CB Tay Gowan, it was a rich-getting-richer situation. Arizona was 6-0, having already vanquished the Titans by 25 points and the Rams by 17 — both on the road. Tennessee went on to earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Rams went on to win the Super Bowl.
Ertz was the final key piece for an Arizona offense that rattled off 31+ points in five of those first six contests. In Ertz’s first game with his new club, the Cards tacked on another 31 points to go 7-0. They were on the verge of becoming an all-time great offense and a frontrunner for the title.
Instead, it all came crashing down. Arizona’s lost eight of their last 28 games and is one of the two biggest longshots to win the next Super Bowl. The aging Ertz will turn 33 in November and is coming off his most injury-plagued season to date, where he missed seven contests.
While he remains an above-average offensive tight end, and could even be top 10 under different circumstances, Ertz’s best fantasy days are firmly behind him. And three factors are significantly hampering his ceiling.
The first is Kyler Murray’s health. Murray is still recovering from last year’s season-ending ACL tear, which could keep him out until October or November.
Arizona is expected to lean heavily on the historically serviceable Colt McCoy. That downgrade will impact Ertz and every other receiver in an otherwise deep corps that includes DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch.
The second is TE Trey McBride. The Cards invested a second-round draft pick on McBride last year, and he flashed when given the opportunity late last season. He could push Ertz for a shared role this season, which would obliterate Ertz’s waning value.
Third, and arguably most importantly, Ertz is recovering from offseason surgery to repair his ACL and MCL. He will be ready to start the season, but is he fully healthy? The Cardinals have no reason to rush him back in and give him his usual full snap count total in what almost assuredly will be a lost season.
Realistically, Ertz will struggle to match last year’s 47-406-4 receiving line, which he achieved in only 10 games. He might need 14 or 15 to hit those marks in 2023. More realistically, if he sees the field for 12 games, Ertz might hit somewhere around a 31-340-2 line, keeping him firmly off most fantasy league radars.
Should You Draft Zach Ertz This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Ertz with an ADP of TE30. Our PFN Consensus Rankings also have him in the TE30 spot. Expert-consensus “bullishness” seems misplaced, for all the reasons highlighted above.
Ertz’s playing status remains in flux. He’ll operate partly with a backup QB in a crowded receiving corps, and he’ll need to compete with the ascending McBride — the team’s future franchise tight end.
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When he arrived less than two years ago, Ertz was supposedly the missing piece of the puzzle. Now, he’s an extra piece to a puzzle that’s long since been discarded. While he might net a couple of top-10 performances this year, overall, Ertz is headed toward production outside the top 28.
In Best Ball leagues, you could take a flier on him with your last pick. But there will be plenty of higher-upside RBs and WRs to choose from. I’d advise going with ceiling rather than the post-prime Ertz.
