There are hundreds of resources that fantasy football managers can use to help formulate a strategy for their upcoming draft. These normally take the form of written content, film breakdowns, rankings cheat sheets, podcasts, and mock drafting.
However, one tool that really changes the game for your draft day performance is called Average Draft Position (ADP) data.
What is ADP, and how can it help you win your fantasy football league in 2024?
What Does ADP Mean in Fantasy Football?
ADP data is collected in various ways. The information can be pulled from mock drafts or real fantasy football drafts. It comes from various popular websites and collects all of the different draft selections to help generate an ADP for almost every draft-eligible player.
As we inch closer to the start of the 2024 NFL season with individual player situations mostly set in stone for the season opener, the overall reliability of the data will become far more reliable, with some “outlier picks” having a smaller impact on ADP.
Outliers usually include players who are buried on the depth chart. Or, in some cases, it’s a practice-squad player who could see his draft stock rise with positive training camp reports, which could present future opportunities for an expanded role heading into the next NFL season. That’s why ADP is just one of the many tools at the disposal of drafters.
Another way outliers can be found is by their level of play in preseason games. One outstanding game — and, in some circumstances, one outstanding play — can drastically change a player’s ADP data.
This preseason, that player may be New York Giants running back Eric Gray, who scored two rushing touchdowns on just four carries while compiling 98 total yards on just eight total touches.
It shouldn’t be taken as bible scripture for where a player will be selected during fantasy drafts, but it can still be quite useful. Sometimes, fantasy managers will lean more toward recent reports from beat writers. They typically comment on depth chart projections or other recent acquisitions that could bypass ADP data, which can make some data a bit misleading when formulating your draft day strategy.
Oftentimes, rookies offer a great draft-day ADP, given the uncertainty of their impact in their first NFL season. Names like Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, and De’Von Achane are great examples of those who drastically outperformed their ADP last season.
Using ADP, managers can attempt to predict when players could be drafted and whether they would be a reach at their current pick. Studying and understanding ADP also allows managers to develop a draft strategy.
By paying attention to ADP data, managers can target specific rounds or ranges of a draft to target a position or player tier (e.g., the first two rounds).
For example, this could be helpful when targeting a late-round quarterback, getting ahead of the running back dead zone, or finding wide-receiver-rich areas of a draft where you can land overlooked veterans or high-upside rookies later in drafts.
Without ADP, fantasy managers would be drafting blind with no sense of value when on the clock — and no sense of what opponents might do.
ADP Will Vary From Site to Site, Creating More Fantasy Value
The ADP on the specific platform a fantasy manager uses can be a powerful tool, so let’s look at an example of how it can vary from site to site. We’ll use Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren as an example.
Based on data culled from Aug. 14, 2024, on FantasyPros, Worthy was listed as WR29 at No. 85 overall.
However, on My Fantasy League, he’s going two full rounds later at No. 110 overall.
A drastic difference like that makes it hard to pinpoint exactly where you should select the former full-PPR machine, but the ADP can forecast that you may need to spend eighth-round draft capital to acquire him instead of a 10th-rounder, giving the idea that fantasy managers could be expecting a potential RB2 for their team in 2024.
ADP can also be used to find value in certain rounds and draft players you expect will outperform their average draft position.
In addition, ADP can be very fluid and reactive to recent changes. These include roster additions or subtractions, which can create a bit more uncertainty in their team outlook.
ADP vs. ECR: What’s the Difference, and How Can Fantasy Managers Use Both?
ADP and ECR are two different fantasy metrics, but each tries to answer the same question: When should you draft Player X?
ADP is a specific representation of where each NFL player is being selected in fantasy football drafts. It’s based on drafts that have already taken place.
ECR, meanwhile, stands for “expert consensus ranking.” This is a composite of industry experts’ rankings mixed to generate a consensus. It depicts how industry analysts collectively value each player.
MORE: What Is FAAB?
Using ECR means you’re not banking your entire draft strategy on a single person’s opinion but rather on many analysts; sometimes, it’s 100 or more, depending on the website. Again, ECR can be equally misleading if you take those rankings as a concrete guide for where players will be drafted.
While ADP is what people are actually doing in drafts, ECR represents a suggestion. Expert rankings come in the form of cheat sheets you see fantasy managers print off. Or, if you are like my dad, you’ll bring a fantasy football magazine to the draft to gauge the value of these players on the board.
Much like ADP, the broader the sample set, the less a single data point can skew the numbers. Moreover, by utilizing ADP and ECR in tandem, one can uncover where expectations align and diverge with actual drafting trends.
At its core, this helps managers anticipate opponents’ next moves, paving the way to more successful drafting.