The matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants could be a tough one from a fantasy football value perspective. With one of the lowest totals of the week and major question marks at key positions, managers may be scratching their heads ahead of Sunday. Let’s break down the data to determine which players you should be considering starting or sitting this week.
- Spread: Vikings -1
- Total: 41.5
- Vikings implied points: 21.3
- Giants implied points: 20.3
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Can Sam Darnold Provide Fantasy Value as a Starting QB?
- Fantasy Points: 10.2
- Passing Yards: 134.0
- Passing TDs: 0.7
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 11.7
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
Maybe there is a world in which we see the best version of Darnold on a Vikings team that, when at full strength, has a trio of pass catchers that is certainly capable of elevating the quarterback. Banking on him being usable out of the gates in anything but deep Superflex leagues, however, is borderline crazy.
In Darnold’s six best fantasy performances to date, he challenged secondaries deep downfield with an aDOT of 9.2 yards. I suspect we see a more conservative approach from him to open this season, especially in a game where the script is unlikely to demand aggression, resulting in him ranking outside of my top 20 at the position.
Should Fantasy Managers Trust Daniel Jones in Week 1?
- Fantasy Points: 10.5
- Passing Yards: 132.0
- Passing TDs: 0.5
- Interceptions: 0.4
- Rushing Yards: 24.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
For the time being, Jones has one job for fantasy managers and one job only – make Malik Nabers work.
I could tell you that Jones is fifth at the position in rushing yards since entering the league and, with a true WR1 on the roster, that profile is what fantasy managers draw up. But I think we’ve seen enough to really need proof of concept before putting Mr. Dimes anywhere near fantasy lineups.
Jones may look good through two weeks this season against two of the seven worst defenses from 2023 in terms of opponent passer rating. It doesn’t matter. We’ve seen sparks from him in the past, and the position is simply too deep to get sucked back in.
Can Aaron Jones Return to Regular Fantasy Viability?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.4
- Rushing Yards: 58.7
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 1.8
- Receiving Yards: 13.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Could this game get chaotic? It features the two most blitz-heavy teams from 2023, and we aren’t talking about passing games that are likely to punish aggressive defensive play-calling. That should result in plenty of opportunities for Jones.
“Should,” is the keyword.
One cannot help but notice that Jones hasn’t been trusted with much in the way of work to open the past three seasons. Since the start of 2021, he has five games with under 12 touches despite playing over 46% of the snaps:
- 2021 Week 1
- 2021 Week 12
- 2022 Week 1
- 2023 Week 1
- 2023 Week 8
Yes, those games came as a member of the Packers, but maybe Jones’ body requires time to get into full game shape? I wish I could explain this usage. I can’t. But I can point it out and I can also mention that Ty Chandler has been on this roster during Kevin O’Connell’s entire tenure.
If you’re starting a Vikings back, it’s Jones, but I don’t feel great about it. At the very least, the game script shouldn’t be an issue – a sentence I might not get to write for this team again until late October.
Is Ty Chandler Worth a Risk in Fantasy Lineups This Week?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.2
- Rushing Yards: 27.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
- Receptions: 2.0
- Receiving Yards: 15.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
I expect Chandler to assume a greater role as the season progresses. And if Jones shows any signs of the age decline that the Packers feared, maybe he approaches standalone value sooner rather than later.
The Giants allowed the fourth-most yards per RB carry before contact last year. If Chandler is going to make a statement with his carries and earn more work, this could be a spot for him to do so.
Can Devin Singletary Be Fantasy Relevant After Another Offseason Move?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.9
- Rushing Yards: 45.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
- Receptions: 1.9
- Receiving Yards: 12.5
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
I’m skeptical that Singletary will hold on to the bell-cow role in this offense through October, and I’m not sure his season gets off to a great start.
During his entire career up to this point, Singletary has been involved in offenses that have proven to be dangerous. He spent four seasons with the Bills and Josh Allen before taking his talents to Houston last year in an offense that was as potent as anyone once the Texans figured out what C.J. Stroud was capable of.
It’s safe to say that this situation in New York is not the same as either of those. Running lanes are going to be more difficult to come by, and for a player who hasn’t had a 35-yard carry in over nearly 1,000 days, counting on the home run play isn’t exactly wise.
The Vikings’ defense had their share of issues in 2023, but they allowed a league-low six running back carries of 15+ yards. I think you can get away with Flexing Singletary in the rare Giants game that should come down to the wire, and thus stabilize his touch count. But asking for much more than that is dangerous with Tyrone Tracy Jr. set to nip at his heels for touches.
Is Justin Jefferson Still a Must-Start Fantasy Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 17.6
- Receptions: 5.9
- Receiving Yards: 88.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
While there is no actionable advice here, this will be an interesting situation to watch. How does this Darnold-led pass game function?
He couldn’t have asked for a softer landing spot to debut, and his WR1 could well look like the record-setting version of himself that we’ve become so accustomed to seeing over the past four seasons.
Jefferson averages 9.6 targets per game for his career, and while you can question the quality of those looks this season, it seems safe to assume that volume won’t be an issue.
In 2023, there were 14 times when a receiver saw at least nine targets against the G-men, and they averaged 21.1 PPR PPG.
Obviously, there are some star receivers in perfect spots on that list (A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb to name two), but also included is Garrett Wilson (a decent template for the worst-case 2024 scenario for Jefferson), and lesser talents like Quez Wakins and Demarcus Robinson.
I’d bet the “under” on 21.1 fantasy points for Jefferson in this game, but the fact that an outcome of that level is within reason should squash your concerns for arguably the best receiver in the game. Save those worries for next week against the 49ers.
Can Jordan Addison Repeat His Impressive Fantasy Returns in Year 2?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.4
- Receptions: 2.7
- Receiving Yards: 34.5
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
With off-the-field issues this preseason and a mid-August ankle sprain, why even take the risk of considering Addison for your lineup until we see him play?
As a rookie, Addison scored on 14.3% of his receptions, a rate that I was going to label as unsustainable if Kirk Cousins had remained on this roster. It’s now a near certainty Addison won’t come close to matching that in 2024.
He could see his fair share of targets with T.J. Hockenson on the shelf, but asking Addison to post Flex-worthy numbers consistently is a step I’m not close to taking.
Addison needs a touchdown to bail you out, and maybe he gets it against the 25th-ranked red-zone defense from a year ago. But without a score, Addison’s floor is awfully low, and that’s why he’s hovering around WR50 in my ranks.
Is Malik Nabers an Instant Fantasy Starter?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.2
- Receptions: 4.4
- Receiving Yards: 65.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
Reasonable minds disagree if the chicken or the egg came first, and reasonable minds disagree if Nabers’ talent will shine through a cloudy QB situation or if the lack of talent under center will mute his abilities.
I have my concerns when it comes to week-over-week consistency, but Nabers profiles as a starter in all formats for his professional debut.
Last season, receivers cleared 15 PPR points against the Vikings 13 times, six of which came from a QB labeled as nothing more than average.
Highlighting that list was Tee Higgins (22.1 points with Jake Browning) and Adam Thielen (15.2 points with Bryce Young), the latter of which is a pretty good baseline. In that game, Thielen accounted for 37.3% of Young’s completions and was featured in an offense that essentially tried to melt the clock (24-play edge in plays run and over 38 minutes of possession).
I expect the Giants to run a similar death-by-1,000-paper-cuts style of play this season, and we could well see the best version of it in the season opener given the time to prepare.
The Vikings were vulnerable on a per-play basis last season, but they were above average in red-zone defense, making volume all that more valuable for Nabers.
The early schedule plays out favorably for Nabers – the Vikings, Commanders, and Cowboys (likely without DaRon Bland) are three of the Giants’ four September opponents. I maintain my stance that Nabers could well be a sell-high candidate by midseason.
Lock him in this week, but don’t get out over your skis if he hangs a big number.
Darius Slayton Could Continue To Drive Fantasy Managers Wild
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 5.4
- Receptions: 1.9
- Receiving Yards: 28.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Fun fact Alert — Slayton is just 27 years old, yet he is the only player with four seasons of 700+ receiving yards on 50 or fewer catches this millennium.
By “fun,” I mean very specific and not at all appealing in our game.
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Slayton scored in three straight games to end the 2023 regular season, which helped salvage an underwhelming season. But this isn’t a profile I want a piece of in annual leagues.
In a matchup like this against Minnesota, which allowed the 10th-highest pass TD rate on deep passes last season, value hunters could justify burning a DFS lineup with Slayton, who saw over 29% of his targets come 15+ yards down the field in all five of his NFL seasons. But outside of that, Slayton has little appeal and doesn’t need to be rostered in standard formats.
No T.J. Hockenson = Little Tight End Fantasy Value
Investing in either of these offenses is scary enough, so why bring a zero-point floor into the equation by looking in this direction?
T.J. Hockenson is an interesting stash (I have my concerns about him providing top-five numbers immediately upon his return), but until that time, there isn’t a tight end on either of these rosters that you need to waste brain power on.