Tyler Allgeier’s dynasty value was in a good spot for a two-month window following an impressive rookie season. Then the Atlanta Falcons used the No. 8 pick on mega-prospect Bijan Robinson.
With a new coaching staff coming to town, should Allgeier be viewed as a potential Flex option with his best days ahead of him, or simply one of the premier handcuff running backs in fantasy football that is a depth piece and nothing more?
Tyler Allgeier’s Dynasty Outlook
The Atlanta Falcons invested a fifth-round pick in 2022 on Allgeier after he piled up north of 3,000 scrimmage yards during his final two seasons at BYU. At that point, he had only an offensive weapon in Cordarrelle Patterson substantially pushing him for rushing work.
- 2022 Tyler Allgeier
- 2020 Jonathan Taylor
- 2018 Saquon Barkley
While the wins didn’t come, Allgeier impressed. That list above is the entire group of rookies since 2017 to run 200 times and average at least 4.9 yards per carry as a rookie — fantasy royalty and Allgeier.
The drafting of Robinson, however, should have served as a sign that the franchise had its questions about Allgeier’s status as a feature back.
The prospect profile of Robinson was elite. That we know, but in this era of not investing in the running back position, the Falcons — with a roster full of holes in other spots — would have moved the pick for a king’s ransom if they believed their backfield was settled.
Always pay attention.
Dynasty fantasy football is a year-round game, and those who are always thinking ahead are those who put themselves in a spot to succeed. The drafting of Robinson told us more about the future of Allgeier than anything he did during his rookie season. Atlanta was telling us that they weren’t prepared to count on the incumbent, and you’d be wise to listen when teams make such bold claims, even if you don’t agree with the analysis.
I think we all agreed with the direction of this pick, and Robinson proved as much during his rookie season. But the important lesson here has nothing to do with the result. It’s the process of reading the tea leaves.
MORE: Atlanta Falcons Hire OC Zac Robinson — Fantasy Football Impact
Allgeier ran for just 663 yards (3.7 yards per carry) in his second season. With Arthur Smith out of town, Allgeier’s role figures to only shrink as the Falcons try to maximize Robinson’s impact during his cheapest contractual seasons.
The carries figure to be difficult to come by, and without any semblance of versatility (34 catches in 33 games and no signs of it during his collegiate career), we are looking at a player who isn’t in position to produce viable numbers barring an injury.
Allgeier’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Allgeier land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest dynasty rankings, featuring where Allgeier lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Kyle Soppe’s Top RB Rankings
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) James Cook | BUF
9) Saquon Barkley | NYG
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Tony Pollard | DAL
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
17) Josh Jacobs | LV
18) D’Andre Swift | PHI
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Aaron Jones | GB
21) Austin Ekeler | LAC
22) Tyjae Spears | TEN
23) Joe Mixon | CIN
24) Nick Chubb | CLE
25) Najee Harris | PIT
26) David Montgomery | DET
27) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
28) Jaylen Warren | PIT
29) Raheem Mostert | MIA
30) Derrick Henry | TEN
31) Khalil Herbert | CHI
32) James Conner | ARI
33) Kendre Miller | NO
34) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
35) Roschon Johnson | CHI
36) Dameon Pierce | HOU
37) Tank Bigsby | JAX
38) J.K. Dobbins | BAL
39) AJ Dillon | GB
40) Miles Sanders | CAR
41) Alexander Mattison | MIN
42) Gus Edwards | BAL
43) Zack Moss | IND
44) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
45) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
46) Elijah Mitchell | SF
47) Jerome Ford | CLE
48) Antonio Gibson | WAS
49) Darrell Henderson Jr. | FA
50) Jamaal Williams | NO
Should You Trade Allgeier in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Allgeier? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
I’d be more receptive to Allgeier carving out a role in this offense if his per-carry metrics didn’t tank the way they did in 2023. Following his strong rookie season, Allgeier’s yards per carry before contact dipped by 46.7% while the post-contact rate fell by 17.6%. I’d love to blame the offensive line, but Robinson’s yards per carry before contact average was essentially double Allgeier’s.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
You might believe that Allgeier is one of the 32 best running backs in the world, but we are not in the game of player evaluation — we are here to project production. Banking on a rebound of any kind any time soon is not the percentage play.
He’s roster-worthy due to his proximity to a featured role, but his trade value is not high enough to get anything of help back in return.
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