Jonathan Taylor’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Just two short years ago, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was considered the overall RB1 in dynasty. Since then, he’s dealt with injuries and bad offenses, resulting in his fantasy football value going on a bit of a roller coaster ride. Where does it stand heading into the 2024 season?

Jonathan Taylor’s Dynasty Outlook

It’s hard to believe Taylor has already been in the NFL for four years — he still feels like one of the young, ascending talents. Of course, at any other position, after just four seasons, he would be. However, as a running back, Taylor may already be at the midpoint of his career.

Taylor does have an overall RB1 finish on his résumé. It wasn’t a truly legendary season, but he averaged over 20 fantasy points per game and was the best running back in fantasy. While I do think Taylor is capable of reaching 20 points per game again, I don’t think he has Christian McCaffrey-level upside.

In his overall RB1 season in 2021, Taylor averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game. It was one of the lowest overall RB1 finishes in fantasy football history.

Since then, Taylor has dealt with a series of recurring ankle injuries, plus a thumb injury, resulting in him playing just 21 games total over the past two seasons.

When on the field, we’ve seen flashes of Taylor’s immense talent, but 13.3 and 15.6 fantasy points per game, respectively, is nowhere near the level fantasy managers expected after Taylor’s sophomore breakout.

It would be easy to chalk everything up to injuries and the team’s situation. The Colts’ offense should be much better in 2024 if QB Anthony Richardson can stay healthy. But would that necessarily be a boon for Taylor’s fantasy value?

There were two major factors contributing to Taylor’s 2021 season. First, he scored 20 touchdowns. You won’t find a single overall RB1 season in NFL history that doesn’t include an outlier TD rate, and I’m not sure we’ll ever see a 20-touchdown season from Taylor again.

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Second, Taylor saw a 10.6% target share. Taylor doesn’t have to be Matt Forte through the air, but if he’s going to be an elite RB1, he can’t be Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb (who, despite his immense talent, has never even come close to being an elite RB1, and never will).

Receptions matter. They were worth anywhere from 2.5 to 3.0 times more than carries.

Last year, Taylor’s target share ticked down a bit to 7.5%. After returning from his thumb injury, he was consistently pulled on passing downs for the likes of Trey Sermon or Tyler Goodson. That’s not a great sign.

The decision to not use Taylor as a receiver was intentional, and that was with QB Gardner Minshew II under center. A mobile Richardson will provide far fewer opportunities for checkdowns, as he will tactically scramble rather than dump it off to a running back.

With that being said, Taylor is still incredibly gifted. He’s one of the best runners in the league, and his final game of the 2023 season against the Houston Texans reminded everyone just how good he can be.

The receiving work was nowhere to be found, but still, Taylor ripped off 30 carries for 188 yards and a touchdown. At his peak, that’s the type of performance he’s capable of.

Taylor’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Taylor land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Taylor lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) De’Von Achane | MIA
8) Saquon Barkley | NYG
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
12) Josh Jacobs | LV
13) Kyren Williams | LAR
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | PHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Tony Pollard | DAL
18) Tyjae Spears | TEN
19) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
20) Joe Mixon | CIN
21) Alvin Kamara | NO
22) David Montgomery | DET
23) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
24) Derrick Henry | TEN

Should You Trade Taylor in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Taylor? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds.

Taylor is still just 25 years old. A player with his skill set should be able to remain highly effective for at least another four years. While Richardson may steal some touchdowns in the future, the Colts’ offense should be good enough for Taylor to still score 14-16 times a year.

I have Taylor ranked as my dynasty RB5. Do I think he’s actually going to put up top-five numbers? Probably not. However, the RB position is in a really bad spot right now. Many fantasy managers are starting to realize how much it’s been carried by the historically great 2017 class, which is now getting quite old.

When it comes to backs with whom we are confident are extremely talented — and also under 25 — I count four, maybe five, depending on your personal outlook on players. That makes an established talent like Taylor, despite his capped ceiling, quite valuable.

Taylor is closer to the point at which dynasty managers should be looking to move him rather than acquire him. He’s also an interesting player because I can see his valuation being all over the place.

One fantasy manager may see Taylor as having not yet reached his peak, valuing him as a guy who could potentially earn 20 points per game. That makes him someone to target.

Another manager may look at Taylor, see one elite season in four years, and opt to move him for a younger, lesser-proven but more volatile RB option or a wide receiver.

This isn’t a situation where Taylor is clearly a buy if you’re trying to win now and a sell if you’re rebuilding. He can work for teams in either situation; it all depends on how you choose to view Taylor.

What would I do with Taylor? There is no objectively correct answer — as there rarely is. This is going to be a situation where the answer changes from league to league.

It’s nearly impossible to discuss trade value in the abstract. A trade necessarily requires at least one other manager, and that manager’s opinions matter.

I would treat Taylor as a value proposition. You don’t need to have him on your team, but you also don’t need to get rid of him. Do whatever provides the greater value.

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If you have Taylor and someone out there really wants him and is willing to overpay, trade him away. If no one is really interested, just hold.

If you don’t have Taylor and his manager is disappointed with what he’s provided the past four years and wants to get out, see if you can pay 75 cents on the dollar. That way, even if Taylor tops out as a borderline RB1/2, you will still have gotten good value.