The fantasy football industry rejoiced when the Atlanta Falcons parted ways with Arthur Smith. And that was without having any idea of who would take over this talented team. It just wasn’t going to matter — we were itching for change, and we’re getting it.
With the news that the Falcons have hired Zac Robinson to be their next offensive coordinator, what is the fantasy impact for players like Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London?
Zac Robinson’s Offensive Background
Atlanta hired Raheem Morris as their head coach, bringing Robinson with him to lead the offense. Robinson spent five seasons working under Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay, serving as his pass-game coordinator for the last two.
He and McVay were the brains behind that offense. Running back Kyren Williams was healthy for two stretches in 2023, and in those spurts, the Rams were essentially a printing press for managers.
Weeks 1-6
- Matthew Stafford: QB19
- Kyren Williams: RB6
- Puka Nacua: WR10
- Cooper Kupp: WR2 (only two games played)
Weeks 12-17
- Stafford: QB6
- Williams: RB2
- Nacua: WR11
- Kupp: WR19
- Demarcus Robinson was WR28 for good measure
Of course, the tools he has to work with in 2024 are a little different. Instead of a grizzled veteran under center, he has — well, he has some questions to answer. That is a major difference, but there is certainly pedigree and opportunity waiting for him:
- Robinson: No. 8 pick in 2023
- London: No. 8 pick in 2022
- Pitts: No. 4 pick in 2021
As for the opportunity side of things, don’t tell anybody, but this is a great spot to land. All three of their divisional foes were bottom-10 in third-down defense and bottom-five in rush EPA.
They get to face the NFC East in 2024, a division that housed three of the seven worst scoring defenses in 2023. They also have the AFC West on the books in 2024, a division that featured all four members posting below-league-average interception rates in 2023 and was home to two of the five worst yardage defenses in the league.
If you’re excited about this hire, you’re not alone!
Fantasy Impact on Bijan Robinson
We played this game on the PFN Fantasy Podcast, and the results were about what I expected. Grab a sheet of paper and write down what you think Robinson accomplished in 2023. Let’s keep it simple — in his 17 games, how many total yards and touchdowns did the rookie produce?
BIJAN ROBINSON GETS LOOSE 💨
The #Falcons offense is rolling today!#DirtyBirds | #NFL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 7, 2024
If you’re like me, your eyes wander while you read, so I’ll list his numbers a little further down. His jump cuts became legendary in a hurry, and his explosive potential was impossible to ignore for everyone besides Arthur Smith.
The list of running backs with more 25+ yard touches in their rookie season over the past decade than Robinson is nothing short of impressive: New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley, Carolina Panthers RB Miles Sanders, New England Patriots RB Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara.
That’s fantasy royalty, and that is the company Robinson kept last season despite what many viewed as, at times, a gross misuse of him. Back to your homework assignment.
- 1,463 scrimmage yards
- eight touchdowns
That’s more yards than Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown or Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon. That’s more touchdowns than San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk and Kamara — in a season in which we spent the entire season complaining!
It’s safe to say that greatness is very much a potential outcome for Robinson. That is why I think the first-round grade we all gave him entering 2023 should remain for 2024. His upside is tough to properly quantify, and with Robinson pulling the levers, his path to cashing in on our expectations is more clear.
MORE: Will the Falcons Target Kirk Cousins?
In Weeks 12-17, Robinson’s Rams had Williams back from injury and were pushing for a playoff berth. In those games, not a single team in the league racked up more PPR points per game.
The No. 1 seeds in both conferences checked in just under them over that stretch. That is the type of scoring environment we could be looking at if the QB situation is figured out and the second-year back profiles as the centerpiece.
Fantasy Impact on Drake London
I want to be excited about London, and his role as the clear alpha receiver in Robinson’s offense is enticing. That said, I’m taking a cautious approach for a few reasons.
The sheer depth of the WR position makes an ascent difficult. The RB position can be fed, and the TE position is top-heavy. At receiver, we’re looking at a deep crop of talent, with many of the options ranked in the top 30 having plenty of stability under center.
Don’t get me wrong, I like London more today than I did when the season ended, my optimism just isn’t the same as it is for the two teammates mentioned in this piece.
Here is how Robinson’s two seasons as pass-game coordinator with the Rams fared.
- Passer Rating: 20th
- aDOT: 24th
- Yards per attempt: 18th
In Los Angeles, he was given an above-average signal-caller and asked to work around his strengths. He won’t have that luxury in Atlanta, and that keeps London outside of my starting tier entering 2024.
We saw London increase his catch rate last season despite an increased aDOT, a stat combination that would normally have me ready to invest. That said, his downfield running came at the cost of target consistency.
- 2022: Targeted on 28% of routes
- 2023: Targeted on 22.7% of routes
I do think London pays off our optimism with time and that makes him a strong dynasty buy this offseason. I’m just entering 2024 in a measured fashion and don’t plan on drafting him ahead of his ADP.
Fantasy Impact on Kyle Pitts
The 2023 Falcons were (rightfully) critiqued for their lack of creativity. Part of that was because of limitations at quarterback, but the playcalling certainly didn’t help matters.
Even in that environment, Pitts posted the fourth-highest aDOT by a TE (minimum 60 targets) over the past decade:
- 2018 Rob Gronkowski: 12.4 yards
- 2017 Rob Gronkowski: 11.6 yards
- 2020 Jared Cook: 11.5 yards
- 2023 Kyle Pitts: 11.4 yards
Of course, 479 of his air yards went for nothing, and that made the year as a whole an underwhelming one. Is that poised to change in a significant way in 2024?
It’s tough to feel good about a projection (for better or worse) without clarity under center, but the fact that he was earning targets down the field in an offense that had no interest in challenging defenses vertically is noteworthy.
This past season, we saw a handful of young tight ends impress, while the old guard still has a handful of reliable options. After those 6-8 names, however, Pitts’ potential is as enticing as any and puts him on the starting radar for another season.
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I expect there to be some scar tissue when it comes to Pitts’ ADP in August and I’ll be happy to swoop in as long as I didn’t invest early in the position.