This Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens prediction examines a game lacking the star power that once made it the most anticipated rivalry game of the NFL season. Lamar Jackson is missing yet another contest, and both teams come in winning a combined seven out of their last 10 averaging a combined 16 points per game.
Winning ugly personified.
The Steelers vs. Ravens odds are impacted by both teams being mediocre at best, forcing bettors to search for the value. We find that value below, giving bettors fascinating decisions to make based on the Behavior Bets sports betting model projection.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Odds | Week 17
- Spread: Steelers +2
- Moneyline: Steelers +118
- Over/Under: Under 35.5
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model started Week 17 4-0 thanks to Thursday Night Football, including wins on the moneyline, against the spread, over/under, and player props. For the season, the model is 123-54-6* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
Lamar Jackson will miss his eighth game in two years, this one on Sunday Night Football. He has missed critical games when his team is making a playoff push at the end of each of the last two years. This has thrust backup Tyler Huntley into the spotlight.
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Luckily for the Ravens, Huntley has performed well enough. He’s not the player Jackson is, but he isn’t losing games for the team and getting in the way of winning. That said, the question becomes, for how much longer is winning sustainable?
With Jackson, the Ravens were 16th in the NFL in EPA/Drop Back. With Huntley, they’ve fallen to 28th. While both quarterbacks are better runners than they are throwers, there’s no question Jackson gives this team a better chance to win.
Since Huntley has taken over, the Ravens have seen a 27% drop in scoring rate. With Jackson, they were averaging .694 points per minute of possession time. With Huntley, that number has been cut by a whopping 58%, down to .319.
On Sunday, they’ll be taking on a Steelers defense that is only giving up .563 points per minute of opponent possession time. The Behavior Bets model projects the Ravens to score an average of only 12.6 points across possibilities.
On offense, the Steelers have been twice as good as the Ravens under Huntley in terms of scoring rate. But while Pittsburgh is up 20% in scoring rate since the bye week, that has still only yielded an average over that timespan of .628 points per minute of possession time. That’s good enough for 25th in the NFL.
Part of that stems from the growing pains of rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, and some of that is just due to having an overall non-explosive offense (aside from the occasional George Pickens highlight). Pickett and Pickens will face an eighth-ranked Baltimore defense in points allowed per minute of possession time.
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Since their bye week, the Ravens’ defense has been nothing short of superb, allowing an average of only .358 points per minute of opponent possession time. The Behavior Bets Model predicts the Steelers to average 14.7 points across all likely possibilities.
This will not be a barn burner, but we predict the underdog to win, so that’s great value ATS and on the moneyline. It’s likely safe to go with the under in this one as well.
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction:
Steelers 16, Ravens 13