The Pittsburgh Steelers snuck their way into the playoffs after a close victory over the Baltimore Ravens. They received some help from the Las Vegas Raiders, who elected to go for the win instead of the tie against the Los Angeles Chargers. Now, the Steelers get a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who aren’t seen as the obvious Super Bowl favorite in the AFC anymore. Below, you’ll find the NFL odds, along with my pick and prediction for the Steelers vs. Chiefs Wild Card matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs pick, prediction | Wild Card Weekend
- Spread: Chiefs -12.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Steelers +450, Chiefs -650
- Over/Under: 46
Kansas City’s hot streak
The Chiefs got off to a slow start during the 2021 season. They owned a 3-4 record over their first seven games. Over that span, they posted a -15 point differential. Since then, Kansas City’s posted a 9-1 record. Their only loss came by a field goal in the final seconds of the game to the Bengals. The Chiefs won eight in a row before that loss, but they returned to their winning ways with a 28-24 victory against the Broncos in Week 18.
Kansas City’s offense also caught fire in recent games, as they’ve posted 28+ points in five consecutive contests. Over that span, they’re averaging 35.4 points per game. They own a +72 point differential in those games.
Steelers vs. Chiefs betting trends
The Steelers and Chiefs have both struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. They each own an 8-9 ATS record during the regular season. Pittsburgh’s seen mixed results with the spread throughout the year. They traded wins and losses over seven consecutive weeks prior to Week 18. They broke that streak by covering against the Ravens after doing the same against the Browns in Week 17.
Kansas City’s been relatively streaky throughout the season. They covered in six consecutive games before their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. They failed to cover in that bout, following it with another ATS loss to Denver last week.
Steelers vs. Chiefs prediction
This would likely be the most shocking upset of the postseason, as the Steelers truly shouldn’t be in the playoffs. They’re the only team outside of the Raiders with a negative scoring margin in the playoffs.
The Chiefs have a massive offensive edge in this game, as Ben Roethlisberger looks like a shell of himself. He can’t push the ball down the field, and he limits the entire Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers have also struggled to consistently get the ball to their best playmaker, wide receiver Diontae Johnson.
Patrick Mahomes and Co. should continue to find success, while Kansas City’s defense boasts sneaky upside. The question isn’t who will win this game, but rather if the Chiefs have the ability to cover a near-two-touchdown spread.
Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 28, Steelers 13