Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 4. We all know how time-consuming gathering all the information can be, which is why we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to!

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (TNF)

Dallas Cowboys

Team: The Cowboys have won 5 straight Thursday games, averaging 33.6 PPG and outscoring opponents by 14.6 PPG in those wins.

QB: Like the Cowboys to handle their business in this spot? Dak Prescott has averaged 325.3 passing yards with 10 touchdowns against one interception (118.9 Passer Rating) in his last three wins over New York.

Offense: The Cowboys are averaging the 4th-fewest yards per rush (3.6). It’s their worst yards per rush average through 3 games since 2012.

Defense: The Cowboys are the only team to have a sub-50% success rate against the run this season (47.9%). Dallas has allowed 3 Rush TD in back-to-back games for the first time in franchise history. They’re trying to avoid becoming the first team since the 2010 Panthers to allow 3 Rush TD in 3 straight games.

Fantasy: Dak Prescott is averaging 325.3 passing yards with 10 touchdown tosses against just one interception over his past three wins at the Giants.

Betting: Dak Prescott is 22-13-1 ATS (62.9%) for his career in primetime with five of his past seven games under the bright lights coming in under the total.

New York Giants

Team: The Giants have lost 8 straight Thursday games, tied for the 3rd-longest streak in NFL history. With another loss they would tie the 2004-12 Lions for the 2nd-longest streak ever, behind the 1950-2013 Cardinals (11 straight).

QB: Daniel Jones is the only QB this season with consecutive games of 20+ rushing yards and 2+ passing touchdowns. This is his third such streak of his career, he’s never done it in three straight games.

Offense: Malik Nabers has accounted for a NFL-high 37.8% of his team’s targets so far. The only players with more through three games in the last 10 seasons:

2015 Julio Jones (40.0%)
2017 DeAndre Hopkins (39.8%)
2023 Davante Adams (39.8%)

Defense: The Giants had 8 sacks vs the Browns, their most in a game since 2014. Dak Prescott has been sacked on 6.9% of his dropbacks, on pace to be the 2nd-highest rate of his career.

Fantasy: Daniel Jones has finished each of the past two weeks as a top-12 fantasy QB and is the only QB this season with consecutive games that featured 20+ rushing yards and multiple passing scores.

Betting: Daniel Jones is 9-4 ATS for his career on short rest (9-1 when not facing an AFC East opponent).

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans Saints

Team: Script specialist. The Saints half scored a touchdown on half of their drives (3.92 points per drive) taking place in either the first or third quarter. They remain elite in quarters two and four, but not at the same level (2.92 points per drive, 31.6% TD rate).

QB: Derek Carr has zero touchdown passes over his last 71 attempts in road games that occur indoors.

Offense: New Orleans began the season 12-for-12 scoring on 1st half drives before punting in the first quarter on Sunday. That passed the 2023 Cowboys & 2018 Saints for most consecutive 1st half scoring drives within a season by any team since 2000

Offense: New Orleans ranks 3rd in play-action rate this year (17.9%) after ranking last in 2023 (8.4%).

Defense: The Saints are playing man coverage at the 6th-highest rate (37.2%), but allowing the 5th-most yards per attempt in man coverage (9.2).

Fantasy: Alvin Kamara has been held under 12 PPR fantasy points in back-to-back-to-back games against the Falcons (30.3% production below expectation).

Betting: Sports books are having a problem judging over/unders in Saint games. Week 1 went over the projected line by 15 points, Week 2 over by 16 points, and Week 3 under by 22 points.

Atlanta Falcons

Team: Atlanta is just 1-2 despite having scored first in all three games. They haven’t scored first in the majority of their games for a season since 2020 and teams that scored first last season won 66.9% of their games.

QB: The Falcons tweaked their offensive play calling in Week 3 – Kirk Cousins had a 75.9% quick pass rate last week after posting a 60.7% rate through two weeks.

Offense: The Falcons have just 49 points on their resume this season (55 points through three weeks last season).

Defense: Atlanta is allowing the 2nd-fewest yards after the catch per reception (3.8). Sunday they’ll face a Saints team that ranks 7th in average YAC on offense (6.3).

Fantasy: Bijan Robinson had no problem with the Saints last season, even in the Arthur Smith system – over 120 scrimmage yards in both meeting (three touchdowns and 14 targets across those games).

Betting: The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as an underdog within the division, cashing under tickets in each of their past four covers in such games.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Los Angeles Rams

Team: Including the playoff loss, the Rams have managed just 53 points in their past three road games (all losses) after averaging 28.8 PPG during their four road games prior.

QB: Matthew Stafford is making the most of what he has – five different Rams saw 3-5 targets (five Rams finished with 20-32 receiving yards in the upset win over the 49ers).

Offense: Kyren Williams has scored multiple touchdowns six times in his young career and has now scored in six straight regular season games, tying him for the longest streak by a Rams RB since Marshall Faulk (2001).

Defense: The Rams rank last in both yards per attempt (10.0) and EPA per dropback (-0.48) when playing zone coverage this season. However, Caleb Williams has thrown 0 TD to 3 Int against zone this season.

Fantasy: Kyren Williams doesn’t yet have a touch this season that has gained more than 15 yards and yet, he’s posted three straight top-20 finishes at the position,

Betting: The Rams stormed back last week, earning them their eight over in their past 10 regular season games (one of those unders went under by half-a-point in a game that featured a missed PAT and a missed 43-yard field goal).

Chicago Bears

Team: Chicago has scored 30 points in fourth quarters this season and 23 points, total, through the first three frames (fourth quarters: 25% of minutes, 56.6% of pts).

QB: Despite impressive counting numbers (363 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts), Caleb Williams again graded out below league average in our PFN QB Grading metrics (QB+). He was, however, 5-8 with a touchdown against the blitz last week (Weeks 1-2: 8-15 against the blitz with zero touchdowns and an INT).

Offense: The Bears are averaging 3.0 yards per rush, 2nd-worst through Week 3. They’ll face a Rams defense allowing the 5th-most yards per rush so far (5.1).

Defense: Matthew Stafford is targeting WRs at the highest rate in the league (72.3%). The Bears have allowed 1 TD with 3 Int against opposing WRs, good for the 5th-best passer rating in the league (61.2).

Fantasy: The thought with the Bears was that they had a chance at supporting three viable receivers – through three weeks, they don’t have a single top-30 option at the position in terms of total PPR points.

Betting: The Bears have cashed three under tickets this season and have seen unders come through in 19 of the franchise’s past 23 games started by a rookie QB (10-13 ATS over the course of those games).

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Minnesota Vikings

Team: The Vikings have a +55 point differential this season. That’s the 2nd-best through 3 games in franchise history, trailing the 1975 season (+67 – finished 12-2, lost in the Divisional Round).

QB: Kevin O’Connell had his starting quarterback under center once against the Packers last season and in that game, Kirk Cousins posted his highest QBR of the season (23-of-31 passing for 274 yards and two touchdowns).

Offense: Justin Jefferson has played three games at Lambeau during his career:

89 routes run
20 targets
10 catches
99 receiving yards
0 TD

Defense: The Vikings have at least 5 sacks in every game this season. They’re the first team since the 2001 Saints with at least 5 sacks in each of their first 3 games of the season

Fantasy: The offseason concern was about the viability of the pass catchers in this offense – Justin Jefferon has been a top-20 WR and Jalen Nailor a top-40 WR in all three games this season.

Betting: Sam Darnold has covered in all three games this season – a cover this week would give him his second most in a season (he covered six times in 13 starts with the Jets in 2019).

Green Bay Packers

Team: All signs point to Jordan Love returning, but Malik Willis gave us as unique a run as you could ask for. He won both starts and the Packers didn’t have 20 pass attempts in either game. They had one such win in the 357 prior to Willis taking over.

QB: Jordan Love picked apart this Vikings defense on the road in Week 17 last season by completing 24-of-33 passes for 256 yards and three scores

Offense: Green Bay is +26 in first quarters this season, their best mark through three weeks this millennium. They haven’t had a season where they finished +26 (or better) in first quarters since 2019.

Defense: The Packers have a league-best 9 takeaways this season, already halfway to last year’s total of 18. They’ve forced 3 turnovers in every game, and if they do that again:

The 2013 Bears are the last team to force at least 3 TO in the first 4 games of a season
The 1996 Packers are the last Green Bay team to force at least 3 TO in their first 4 games, and that team went on to win the Super Bowl.

Fantasy: Deebo Samuel broke out for fantasy purposes in 2021, a season that saw him have a 70+ yard TD catch in the opener and be handed the ball multiple times in two of his first three games – Jayden Reed has checked both of those boxes this season.

Betting: The Packers are 10-5 ATS in divisional home games since the start of 2019.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers

Team: Pittsburgh is seeking to start 4-0 for the 5th time in franchise history, and first time since 2020 (began 11-0). The other three teams were all from the 70s Steel Curtain dynasty (1973, ‘78, ‘79).

QB: Justin Fields is the highest rated quarterback in fourth quarters this season (129.6 Passer Rating, 7/10 for 86 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions).

Offense: Fields has never completed even 61.5% of his passes for an entire season – he’s 55-of-75 three games into his tenure with the Steelers (73.3%).

Defense: The Steelers have allowed 10 or fewer points in every game, their longest streak to begin a season since 1973. If they do that again, they would join the 1940 team as the only ones in franchise history to allow 10 points or fewer in each of their first 4 games.

Fantasy: Calvin Austin III failed to score a full PPR fantasy point in both Weeks 1 and 2 – after a productive Week 3, he now leads Steeler WR in PPR fantasy points.

Betting: Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS to start a season for the first time since 2015 and under tickets have cashed in 10 of their past 12 September games.

Indianapolis Colts

Team: The Colts picked up five of their 10 third downs in Week 1 against the Texans – they are five-of-21 since.

QB: Anthony Richardson has posted a completion percentage of 50% or worse in all three starts this season. Every other starting QB has combined to do that four times (Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love have all done it once).

Offense: The Colts scored 14 points in just under 10 minutes during a spurt in their Week 1 loss to the Texans – they have scored 34 points in their other 170 minutes of action this season (three points per 15 mins).

Defense: The Colts have forced a 3-and-out on a league-low 15.6% of drives (league average hovers in the 33% rate).

Fantasy: Michael Pittman has 8.8 PPR points this season, a total he eclipsed in seven individual games last season.

Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Colts are 6-2 ATS when favored (under tickets have cashed in both of their games as a favorite this season).

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Denver Broncos

Team: Denver scored 2.60 points per drive on Sunday, more than triple their rate from the first two weeks (0.85).

QB: Players who were selected in the NFL Draft, since 2000, that had 25+ rush yards and 30+ pass attempts in each of his first three NFL career starts: Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix.

Offense: The Broncos posted a 54.7% offensive success rate in the win vs the Bucs, their highest in a game over the last 3 seasons. Denver has not posted a 50% offensive success rate in back-to-back games since 2021 (Weeks 13-14).

Defense: Strength-on-strength: Denver has the highest pressure rate in the league (44.7%), but Aaron Rodgers has been pressured at the 3rd-lowest rate (24.2%).

Fantasy: Nix is averaging more yards per carry (5.9) than his WR1 in Courtland Sutton is averaging per target (4.9).

Betting: Sean Payton led teams have cashed 13 over tickets in 20 games when the total closes at no more than 40 points.

New York Jets

Team: New York had 106 yards on Thursday night against the Patriots, their second most in a victory over their past 50 games (exception: Week 16 last season: 150 penalty yards against the Commanders, 30-28 win).

QB: A different script. During his final two seasons in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers saw his first quarter aDOT check in over 7.0 yards. This season, it sits at 4.8.

QB: Rodgers was a perfect 6-6 for 88 yards last week when throwing from outside of the pocket, his most such completions in a game since Week 3, 2020.

Offense: Since the beginning of 2022, when Aaron Rodgers starts, two-thirds of the time has his team failed to reach 25 points (0;3 this season).

Defense: New York is allowing just 4.7 yards per play, their best rate through three weeks since 2018 and getting increasingly aggressive. Blitz rate, through three games, by season:

2022: 19.0%
2023: 20.2%
2024: 26.2%

Fantasy: Braelon Allen has looked great to open his career (141 yards and two TDs on 25 touches) – should Breece Hall managers worry? Maybe. Hall picked up 10+ yards on 9% of his carries last season, a rate that has ticked down to 6.5% through three weeks this year.

Betting: The Jets kicked off last week on Thursday night and you’d think that the extra rest would play into their favor – not so much. New York is 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games at home on extended rest, failing to cover the spread by an average of 7.0 points over those contests.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia Eagles

Team: The Eagles have scored points on five of seven fourth quarter drives this season, averaging 4.14 points per drive. This is a continued strength – they ranked fourth in points per four quarter drive last season (2.67).

QB: Jalen Hurts has thrown an interception in seven straight regular season games, the longest streak by a NFC QB since former Eagle hero Nick Foles across three seasons (2018-20).

Offense: This remains the only offense yet to score a first quarter point this season in the NFL. Only once over the past six seasons has a team failed to score a first quarter point through three weeks and made the playoffs (2021 Steelers).

Defense: After allowing 6.4 yards per rush the first 2 games, the Eagles held the Saints to 3.1 yards per rush, their best mark since Week 3 of last season vs Tampa Bay. Philly accumulated 12.2 EPA in run defense, their most in a game since 2020.

Fantasy: Saquon Barkley has at least 95 yards and four catches in consecutive games – we haven’t seen a player do it in three straight games since James Conner and Ezekiel Elliott both did it in 2018).

Betting: Unders are 8-1 in Philadelphia’s past nine road games, including an active streak of five straight cashes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Team: The Eagles have created pressure on 41.1% of opponent dropbacks, up from 36% last season – Baker Mayfield has thrown an interception AND been sacked at least five times in each of the past two weeks.

QB: Mayfield has completed 19-of-22 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions in fourth quarters this season (129.5 Passer Rating).

Offense: The Bucs picked up 9-of-13 third downs in the Week 1 domination of the Commanders (69.2%). They’ve converted just five-of-21 since (23.8%).

Defense: The Bucs are the only team yet to allow a passing TD so far, tied with the 2003 team for the longest streak to begin a season in franchise history. The 2019 Patriots are the only team in the last 15 seasons to not allow a Pass TD in their first four games (did so in first 5 games).

Fantasy: Bucky Irving has produced 13.2% over fantasy expectation this season while Rachaad White’s rate sits at -25.3%.

Betting: Unders are 10-5 when Baker Mayfield starts as an underdog (4-0 last season).

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals

Team: Cincinnati has lost three games this season – they’ve only lost four quarters (Week 1 Q2, Week 2 Q3, Week 2 Q4, and Week 3 Q2).

QB: Joe Burrow has completed 52-of-74 passes over the past two weeks, racking up 582 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions over that run.

Offense: The Bengals are 0-3 with a -12 point differential. That’s tied with the 2010 Browns for the lowest mark over the past 20 years for a team that opened 0-3.

Defense: Jayden Daniels had accounted for more touchdowns against the Bengals on Monday night (3) than incompletions (2).

Fantasy: Ja’Marr Chase had 80 yards and a touchdown in the first half against the Commanders – he was the only Bengal with 20 receiving yards over the first 30 minutes (all of his teammates combined: 77 first half receiving yards).

Betting: Joe Burrow is 9-4 ATS for his career as a road favorite, covering seven of his past nine such games.

Carolina Panthers

Team: By the time this game kicks off, it will have been 1,101 days since the last time the Panthers won in consecutive weeks (they won consecutive games in 2022, but they had a bye week in the middle).

QB: Andy Dalton has never been considered “elite”, but he now has two more games with 315+ passing yards and multiple passing scores than Joe Flacco (21-19) despite having 33 fewer professional starts (Week 3 at Raiders: 319 passing yards with 3 passing touchdowns).

Offense: Carolina has allowed the 2nd-lowest pressure rate (24.3%), despite being blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate (41.1%).

Defense: Carolina generated pressure on 35.6% of the Raiders’ dropbacks in Week 3, and had 3 sacks after posting 2 sacks the first two games combined. From Weeks 1-2, the Panthers had the lowest pressure rate in the league (18.8%).

Fantasy: In the first two weeks of his career as a Panther, Diontae Johnson scored 3.4 PPR fantasy points despite having a role with an expected total of 23.1 points. With Andy Dalton under center last week, he turned 26.9 expected points into 18.2 for your boxscore.

Betting: Under tickets have come through in eight of Carolina’s past nine games as a home underdog (five of those unders have cashed by at least 9.5 points).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars

Team: The Jags own a -45 point differential, their worst mark through three games since 2014 (-75, a season in which they won just three games).

QB: Trevor Lawrence three three touchdown passes in his first career game against the Texans – two touchdowns (and five interceptions) on 184 attempts in five games against the divisional rival ever since.

Offense: In the first half of Week 1, the Jaguars scored 17 points. Over their next 10 quarters, they totaled 16 points

Defense: The Jaguars are the only team in the NFL yet to force a turnover (they’ve played MIA, CLE, and BUF)

Fantasy: It hasn’t been pretty, but Travis Etienne has seen his yards per carry and reception count increase each week this season.

Betting: Trevor Lawrence is just 11-18 ATS as an underdog on normal-to-extended rest, but this game comes on a short work week, a situation in which he has covered three of four games as an underdog.

Houston Texans

Team: The Texans lost by 27 points to the Vikings last week. Last season, three teams (Dolphins, Cowboys, and Lions) made the playoffs after having lost a regular season game by 27+ points.

QB: How C.J. Stroud is attacking the blitz is very different from a season ago. As a rookie, he averaged 8.7 air yards per throw when the defense brought an extra defender but, with Stefon Diggs on the team this year, that number has dropped to 5.9.

Offense: The Texans ran for 213 yards in their season opening win over the Colts – they’ve run for just 113 yards in the two games since (Bears and Vikings).

Defense: The Texans are playing more man coverage this season (up from 18.1% in 2023 to 23.7% this year) and it’s working. Houston ranks 1st in EPA per dropback in man coverage (0.58).

Fantasy: Over his last 16 games, including the playoffs, Stefon Diggs has caught one of 19 targets that have come 20+ yards down field (0-2 as a Texan).

Betting: Unders are 7-3 when C.J. Stroud plays at home (the under against the Bears in Week 2 was the fifth time an under has hit in Stroud’s past six home games).

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals

Washington Commanders

Team: In the first half against the Bengals, three Commanders had a rush attempt – they all had a rush TD. In the first half against the Bengals, four players saw multiple targets – they all had a 14+ yard reception.

QB: Jayden Daniels joined pretty exclusive company by completing 7-of-8 passes for 139 yards, along with a rush TD in the first half on Monday night.

Offense: Terry McLaurin ran past a double team to haul-in a 55-yard bomb from Daniels – he had a total of 39 receiving yards through the first two weeks this season.

Offense: Daniels is the only player since at least 2000 with three straight games of … 10 rush attempts, 20 pass attempts, and 70% complete. In fact, only three other QBs have done it in consecutive games over that stretch:

Lamar Jackson (2020 and 2023)
Kyler Murray (2020)
Cam Newton (2018)

Defense: Ja’Marr Chase buried past this defense for a 41-yard TD in the first quarter on Monday night. The Commanders have allowed a league-high 23 touchdown passes on passes traveling 15+ yards in the air since the beginning of last season – the same number the entire AFC East has allowed over that stretch.

Fantasy: Austin Ekeler got three of the first four touches on Monday night and recorded the longest road rushing touchdown of his career (24 yards) in the second quarter.

Betting: Rookie QBs on short rest are 13-8 ATS over their past 21 such games. Extend the scope back to the start of 2012 and under tickets cash 58.1% of the time in such spots (63.2% over that stretch when on the road).

Arizona Cardinals

Team: These are two of the four worst teams from Week 4 onward since 2022:

Commanders: 9-18-1 (33.9% win)
Bears: 8-20 (28.6% win)
Panthers: 8-20 (28.6% win)
Cardinals: 6-22 (21.4% win)

QB: Kyler Murray is the highest rated first quarter passer in the NFL (155.9):

23 attempts
21 completions
274 yards
4 touchdowns
0 interceptions

Offense: The Cardinals have a win sandwiched between two losses this season. Their offensive splits:

One win: 41 points, 7.9 yards per play
Two losses: 41 points, 4.8 yards per play

Offense: The Cardinals are running play-action 20.6% of the time, the highest rate in the league and a significant pike from their 14.6% rate of last season.

Defense: Arizona has the lowest success rate against dropbacks this season (43.2%). It’s the lowest success rate against dropbacks through 3 games since the 2021, when both the Chiefs and Seahawks were worse.

Fantasy: In Week 1, Marvin Harrison Jr. was targeted once with zero catches on 12 first quarter routes. Since, he’s turned 14 first quarter routes into seven targets, 156 yards, and three scores.

Betting: Unders are 9-4 when Kyler Murray starts and is favored by at least four points.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

New England Patriots

Team: For the first time since Week 16, 2021 (vs. BUF) the Patriots had more fourth down conversions in a game (3) than third down conversions (2) last week.

QB: Jacoby Brissett has 368 passing yards through three games this season – a QB surpassed that total in a single game 15 times last season (Sam Howell, Nick Mullens, C.J. Stroud, and Dak Prescott all did it twice in 2023).

Offense: New England managed just 139 yards of offense on Thursday night against the Jets, their fewest in a game this millennium (exception: Week 18 of last season, 119 yards against … the Jets).

Defense: The Patriots need to get off the field to succeed and they are struggling to do so this season. Through three weeks last season, they posted a 27% opponent third down conversion rate. This season? 21-of-41 (51.2%).

Fantasy: DeMario Douglas is coming off a career-high seven receptions against the Jets as the Patriots embraced what he does well (his aDOT is down 28.8% from the rate he posted as a rookie).

Betting: The Patriots opened up last week on Thursday night, affording them extra rest ahead of this game – be careful, they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games in such spots (-6.1 points against the spread per game).

San Francisco 49ers

Team: The 49ers played in the Super Bowl last year despite a losing streak in the first half of the season that included a pair of one-score defeats, including a loss in Minnesota. They’ve now lost two straight games, a stretch of poor play that started in Minnesota.

QB: Brock Purdy has consecutive games with a triple digit Passer Rating despite losing both contests. He’s the first 49er QB to do that (100+ Passer Rating and lose in consecutive weeks) since Jeff Garcia (Weeks 6-7, 2000).

Offense: The 49ers lead the league in yards per drive (41.9), but have struggled to finish drives like usual. San Francisco ranks 15th in red zone TD rate (50%) after leading the NFL in that category last season (67%).

Defense: San Francisco has allowed opponents to pick up 52.9% of third downs this season. From 2019-23, that rate was 37.9%, eighth best in the league.

Fantasy: Jauan Jennings became the 4th player in 49ers history with 175 receiving yards & 3 Rec TD in a game. He joined Terrell Owens (2001), Jerry Rice (2x) and Dave Parks (1965).

Betting: Kyle Shanahan teams are, including the playoffs, 2-8 ATS in their past 10 against a team on extended rest (the Patriots lost to the Jets on Thursday night).

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders

Cleveland Browns

Team: Through three weeks, the Browns have scored just 50 points (their fewest since 2019) and own a -17 point differential (their worst since 2017).

QB: Deshaun Watson completed 70.8% of his pocket passes during his two seasons with the Texans. That number dropped to 64.7% during his first two with the Browns and currently sits at 60.4% through three weeks.

Offense: The Browns have allowed the 2nd-highest pressure rate (44.7%) behind only the Patriots. The volume is even more wild, as their 63 total pressures allowed is 13 more than any other team. Since PFF began tracking pressures in 2006, only the 2023 Panthers and 2018 Texans have allowed more pressures through 3 games.

Defense: The Browns are playing man coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the league (43.5%). Raiders QBs have averaged the 2nd-lowest yards per dropback when facing man coverage this season (2.9).

Fantasy: Amari Cooper made some highlight plays on Sunday but, including the playoffs, he has been held without a 25-yard catch in eight of his past 10 games.

Betting: Unders are 2-1 in Cleveland games through three weeks for second consecutive season. Overs were 7-2 in Cleveland games from 2020-22, the highest hit rate in the league over that stretch.

Las Vegas Raiders

Team: In consecutive weeks, the Raiders won by three as an 8.5-point underdog (at BAL) and lost by 14 as a 5.5-point favorite. (vs. CAR).

QB: Gardner Minshew is the only QB with 200 pass yards, 1+ touchdown passes, and 1+ interceptions in all three games this season.

Offense: The Raiders are averaging a league-worst 2.8 yards per rush. It’s their 2nd-lowest yards per rush through 3 games in franchise history (averaged 2.7 in 1966).

Defense: Something has to give: the Raiders rank last in defensive pressure rate (20.4%), while the Browns have allowed the 2nd-highest offensive pressure rate (44.7%).

Fantasy: Since the beginning of last season, Jakobi Meyers averages 34.3% more PPR points per target from Aidan O’Connell than Davante Adams.

Betting: The Raiders are 1-2 ATS and all three games have had a cover margin north of 8.5 points (failed to cover by 8.5 points in Week 1, covered by 11.5 in Week 2, and lost by 14 last week against the Panthers as a 5.5-point favorite).

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs

Team: The Chiefs have won 10 straight games when playing the Chargers on the road , their last loss coming in a 2013 Week 17 27-24 win for the home team that saw Dexter McCluster lead Kansas City in receptions and Danny Woodhead hold that crown for then San Diego. Justin Herbert was still more than three months away from turning 16 years old when that game occurred.

QB: Among QBs slated to start this week, no QB in the league has a lower first quarter Passer Rating than Patrick Mahomes (48.0, down from 103.7 last season):

21 attempts, 13 completions
131 yards
0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

Offense: Since 2021, the Chiefs are the best road team in the NFL (19-7) and average a league-best 28.0 PPG in those contests (average point differential: +5.6 PPG).

Defense: The Chiefs are allowing a league-worst 8.8 yards per attempt to RBs and TEs this season. Last season Kansas City allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per attempt to RBs and TEs (5.9).

Fantasy: If you extend the stats from Rashee Rice’s 12 highest regular season route games over a full 17-game season: 114 catches for 1,366 yards, and 8.5 TDs.

Betting: The road win streak over the Chargers is one thing, but these two teams have split the last four games against the spread.

Week 18, 2023: 13-12 Chiefs (3.5-point dog)
Week 11, 2022: 30-27 Chiefs (5.5-point favorite)
Week 15, 2021: 34-28 Chiefs (3-point favorite)
Week 2, 2020: 23-20 Chiefs (8.5-point favorite)

Los Angeles Chargers

Team: The Chargers are the only team yet to go for it on 4th down this season. Under Brandon Staley (2021 through Week 15 of last season), the Chargers had the 3rd-highest go rate in the NFL (25.8%).

QB: Justin Herbert has thrown just nine deep passes this season (15+ air yards) – he had three individual games last season in which he threw at least 10.

Offense: Quentin Johnston scored twice as a rookie – his TD in the first quarter against the Steelers gave him three scores in less than a five-quarter stretch.

Defense: The Chargers have the 3rd-highest success rate on 1st down this season (66.7%). They’ll face a Chiefs offense that leads the NFL in 1st down success rate this year (60.2%).

Fantasy: Regression comes at you quick. J.K. Dobbins gave fantasy managers more than double his expected point total in both Week 1 and Week 2, but last week against the Steelers, he under-delivered by 30.3%.

Betting: The Chargers are 2-8 outright in divisional games as an underdog with Herbert under center, but they’ve managed a 6-4 ATS record. Eight of those 10 games have seen the game finish within six points of the spread.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills

Team: The Bills went TD-TD-TD-TD-TD in the first half of their win over the Jaguars, averaging 7.4 yards per play in the process with four different players catching a touchdown pass from Josh Allen.

QB: Josh Allen has accounted for nine touchdowns, thrown zero interceptions, and completed 75% of his passes through three weeks, landing him atop the MVP betting market and putting him on a promising trajectory if history holds.

Offense: The Bills have scored 112 points, their most through three weeks since scoring 113 in 2011 behind Ryan Fitzpatrick/

Defense: The Bills have a +64 point differential (out-scoring opponents 112-48), the largest number through three weeks since the 2019 Patriots (+89).

Fantasy: Allen wasn’t asked to do much in Week 2’s blowout win over the Dolphins. In his most recent 11 games played on short rest prior to that one:

292.5 pass yards
28 TDs / 2 INTs
7 rush TD
28.3 FPPG

Betting: In Allen’s last 11 starts as an underdog, the Bills are 8-3 ATS and overs are 8-3 (average over margin: +8.32 PPG)

Baltimore Ravens

Team: Since 2019, twice has a team posted a +170 point differential or better in Weeks 4-17:

2019 Ravens: +199
2023 Ravens: +194

QB: Lamar Jackson is averaging 6.7 air yards per throw through three weeks – the lowest rate of his career for a full season is 8.4 yards.

Offense: The Ravens lead the NFL in yards per rush (5.9), and they’re tough to stop even when teams know the run is coming. When leading in the 2nd half, Baltimore averages 6.8 yards per rush, also best in the league.

Defense: As the near-collapse in Dallas showed, closing games has been a problem. Baltimore ranks 7th in defensive EPA per play over the first 3 quarters (0.13), but 31st in the 4th quarter (-0.40).

Fantasy: Derrick Henry has played 51.3% of the snaps and has 57.6 PPR fantasy points through three weeks. Those are nearly identical to the numbers he had in 2019 (53.5% snaps, 57.9 points), a season that saw him decide fantasy leagues with a season ending 211-yard, 3-touchdown effort in Houston. Guess where the Ravens reside in Week 17 this season?

Betting: The Ravens are 6-3 ATS when Lamar Jackson starts at home in primetime and in five of those covers, the game went over the total due to Baltimore scoring at least 34 points in each of those instances.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (MNF, 7:30)

Tennessee Titans

Team: Tennessee has lost 11 of their past 12 road games and have been out-scored 289-158 across those contests (-10.9 PPG).

QB: Will Levis’ average depth of throw this season is 7.9 yards, down from 10.5 a season ago and his completion percentage is up from 58.4% to 68.1%.

Offense: The Titans rank last in EPA per dropback (-0.31). In the last five seasons, only the Jets (3 different times!) have had a worse EPA per dropback through three games.

Defense: The Titans blitzed 40% of the time in Week 3, their highest rate since 2021 and nearly double their 21% average from the first two weeks. Miami has been blitzed at the lowest rate in the league (12%) but will likely be starting its third different QB in as many weeks.

Fantasy: After averaging 5.1 yards per carry in Week 1 against the Bears, Tony Pollard is averaging 3.3 yards per carry – he’s been able to sustain come value with 3+ catches in all three games (he didn’t have a single three-catch game during his final four regular season games with the Cowboys).

Betting: For the second time in the past 20 years, the Titans are 0-3 ATS through three weeks (other instance: 2020, managed to finish 7-9 ATS).

Miami Dolphins

Team: The Dolphins have lost nine straight Week 4 games and have been outscored 270-113 across those games (every other team has multiple Week 4 wins over that run – the Titans are 4-3, 10th best Week 4 win%).

QB: Miami scored three points on Sunday with the one scoring drive netting two yards after an interception put them on the doorstep. No Dolphin earned 17% of the targets last week, as neither QB locked into a specific option.

Offense: In 10 games without Tua Tagovailoa as their starting QB since 2021, the Dolphins have posted a positive offensive EPA once. They produced -25.2 offensive EPA in Sunday’s loss vs the Seahawks, their worst in a game since 2021 Week 2 vs the Bills (when Tua was injured in the 1st quarter).

Defense: Wrapping up ball carriers has been a problem. Miami is allowing the 4th-fewest yards before contact per rush (0.9), but the 5th-most yards after contact per rush (3.9).

Fantasy: There were two weeks last season in which Hill wasn’t a top-35 fantasy receiver, something he’s now done in consecutive games.

Betting: Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins are just 2-8 ATS in primetime (playoffs included) with five straight failures to cover. Unders are 8-2 in those games (5-1 in the past six such games).

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (MNF, 8:15)

Seattle Seahawks

Team: The Seahawks have won a league-best 10 straight Week 4 games. Their last Week 4 loss came at the hands of Sam Bradford’s then St. Louis Rams (Danny Amendola led the game in targets, receptions, receiving yards and caught the only TD pass of that game – from Johnny Hekker).

QB: Geno Smith has a touchdown pass on a ball thrown 30+ yards in the air in consecutive games – he had one such pass all of last season.

Offense: The Seahawks rank 5th in PPG (14.3) and 8th in yards per play (6.1) in the 1st half this season. That falls to 18th in PPG (9.0) and 19th in yards per play (4.9) in the 2nd half.

Defense: Seattle is allowing a league-low 18.8 yards per drive. This week, they face the third best yards per drive offense since the beginning of last season (35.5 yards).

Fantasy: DK Metcalf has been anything but an elite asset under the bright lights of primetime – he’s been held under 10 PPR points in seven of his past eight primetime games (the Week 13 explosion at Dallas last season being the lone exception, 31.4 FP).

Betting: Geno Smith is 9-3 ATS when starting in primetime, 9-1 when facing any team that is not the San Francisco 49ers (notable: the “they wrote me off, I ain’t write back” outright win over the Broncos as a six-point underdog in Week 1, 2022).

Detroit Lions

Team: In 2023, a breakout season for the Lions, they opened with a 2-1 record that included an overtime game and a Week 3 victory that saw them score just 20 points. This season? Overtime in Week 1 and a 20-13 win in Week 3..

QB: Jared Goff iced Week 3’s win with an 8-yard rush, his longest since Week 4 of 2023. He now has 25 carries of at least eight yards in his 129-game career.

Offense: Has the league figured them out? Including the playoffs, Detroit has averaged 5.7 yards per play, down from 6.2 in their previous five (their rate has decreased each game this season: 6.0-5.6-5.5).

Defense: The Lions have blitzed under 36% of the time in all three games this season and in five of their past eight regular season games (over 36% in nine of their previous 10).

Fantasy: Amon-Ra St. Brown has received 31.1% of his team’s targets this season, 3rd-highest behind Malik Nabers and Rashee Rice. He faces a Seahawks defense allowing the 3rd-fewest fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season.

Betting: Since 2020, Jared Goff led teams are 8-2 ATS when playing at home on extended rest.

NFL Notes

We are three weeks into the NFL season and while there are a few outlier teams, the league has seen scoring decline, resulting in greater variance week-over-week in terms of results.

Cover-2 Discussion

Mel Kiper Jr. mentioned last week that “The NFL is being ruined by these two-high safeties” and it shook the football community.

While the rates are up, we dug into the numbers and found that the spike in usage is actually making the league more competitive due to the profile of the quarterback who has struggled the most in these spots.

Answers To The Test

As we approach Week 4, it’s possible that the picture of the complicated NFL is … clear? Through four weeks last season, seven of the eight teams that went on to win their division held at least a share of the lead (exception: Eagles).

In 2022, we saw all eventual divisional champions hold at least a share of the lead through four weeks.

Scheduling Note

Bye weeks start in Week 5 (Lions, Chargers, Eagles, and Titans) and it never hurts to get ahead in your analysis. We saw some significant stumbles for the teams in the first wave of byes last season …

Browns: 45-14 playoff loss at Houston
Chargers: Five straight losses to end the season
Seahawks: Four straight losses in Weeks 11-14
Buccaneers: Four straight losses post-bye

Mr. October

As we near the flipping of the calendar to October, let’s take a look at the top teams over the past five seasons for the month:

Ravens: 16-4 (80% win rate)
Vikings: 15-5 (75%)
Bills: 14-6 (70%)
Titans: 14-6 (70%)
Saints: 14-7 (66.7%)
Seahawks: 14-7 (66.7%)

NFL Week 4 Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes For Every Game