The NFL is a fluid game. The margins are so thin, and given the importance of the quarterback position, a strong performance from that individual often dictates outcomes.
You can go anywhere for objective analysis of which signal-callers played well. Many websites have their NFL talent breaking down the film to highlight what went wrong in certain instances.
That’s all great, but if we want consistency from our QBs, shouldn’t our grading of them be consistent?
What is PFN’s Quarterback Grading Process?
With that in mind, I’ve put together a formula to spit out a letter grade for every performance.
Is it perfect? No. Nothing is. I’m molding stats that include success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle in this PFN Insight is quantifying “clutch.”
We can argue all day as to what goes into that. I’ve got timely-based stats, taking into account both score and situation.
Obviously, not every game is going to give a quarterback the opportunity to thrive (or fail) in such spots, and that is why some of the weekly grades may look a little goofy (Week 1 example: Dak Prescott in the blowout of the Browns). That’s the cost of doing business.
To offset that, I’ll be posting the weekly and season report cards.
Through one week, those are the same thing, but starting next week, every QB (minimum 15 passes in that given week) will receive two grades — one for the most current week and one for the season to date.
These grades are a culmination of ranks. That is, they are graded against one another. That is done to give us the definitive rankings that we desire.
In school, multiple students can ace a test, but football includes plenty of grey area. By grading all signal-callers against one another, we will get a distinct list.
Now, because I’m in the grading business, plenty of players will fall into the same grade range. The way I am listing these players is in the order of their numerical grade. For example, the first player listed with a “C” grade earned a higher mark than the last player in that tier, but they were close enough to fall into the same bucket.
Week 1 QB Grades
1) Baker Mayfield (vs. WAS): A (95)
What didn’t Mayfield do well on Sunday? He posted a 95 overall grade, just missing the A+ threshold and quite possibly the highest grade we see all season long.
On the long list of impressive nuggets from his sparkling season debut, Mayfield completed eight of 10 passes on third down for 120 yards and two touchdowns.
Only time will tell if Sunday was the start of a career year or simply a reinforcement of the idea that this Washington defense might be as bad as we’ve seen in recent memory.
2) Josh Allen (vs. ARI): A- (90)
Twice last season did Allen reach double figures in terms of yards per pass attempt, but he’s one-for-one in 2024.
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are no longer in Buffalo, but Allen showed his passing chops by targeting not one, not two, but eight different players multiple times.
Allen ran for a pair of scores and leads the league in rushing scores since Joe Brady took over as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. If this development as a passer, despite the moving pieces, can stick, this Buffalo team is going to be a tough out.
3) Derek Carr (vs. CAR): A- (88)
If you’re not going to move Carr off his spot, you’re going to pay.
Against the Panthers on Sunday, Carr completed 13 of 16 passes for 152 yards and a touchdown. Last season, he had a higher passer rating when in the pocket than MVP Lamar Jackson, and his 2024 has started in very similar fashion.
4) Anthony Richardson (vs. HOU): B (77)
No risk it, no biscuit.
When the dots connect, what Richardson brings to the table is nothing short of special. The dime he dropped while under pressure is driving this grade — that’s the nature of a low-volume passer.
Richardson’s attempts against the Texans paid off, and that earned him a high mark. But it’s difficult to overlook the volatility in his profile.
5) Aaron Rodgers (at SF): B- (71)
The four-time MVP showed some rust on Monday night, but he did complete five of seven passes for 79 yards and a score when his Jets crossed midfield.
Rodgers’ aDOT was 7.8 yards against the 49ers, an identical rate to his final two seasons with the Packers.
We will see if Rogers can round into the elite form we’ve become accustomed to seeing from him over the past decade, but Week 1 was a decent step, all things considered.
6) C.J. Stroud (at IND): B- (71)
To open his second season, Stroud was excellent when under duress. Against the Colts, he completed five of seven passes for 102 yards when pressured, continuing the progression we saw from him over time in 2023, as his pressured passer rating spiked by 51.3% during the second half of last season.
7) Patrick Mahomes (vs. BAL): B- (71)
Mahomes wasn’t great when the game was within one score in the fourth quarter last season. I’ll take it a step forward — he was actively bad in such spots, ranking 27th in passer rating. For reference, Mac Jones and Will Levis were better.
Against one of the best defenses in the league on Thursday night, Mahomes corrected those flaws: 5-for-5 for 68 yards and a touchdown.
If you thought the Chiefs were dangerous a season ago on their run to a second consecutive title, you haven’t seen anything yet.
8) Jayden Daniels (at TB): B- (70)
The rookie wasn’t perfect as a passer during his debut, but completing 16 of 20 throws when not under pressure (172 yards) matched Mahomes’ completion percentage in such spots in Week 1.
Daniels was willing to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers (5.9 aDOT), and they rewarded his trust by averaging 8.9 yards after the catch on such looks, a rate topped by only the Dolphins and Chiefs last week.
9) Jalen Hurts (vs. GB): B- (69)
in Brazil, Hurts orchestrated a 15-play, 57-yard drive to close the first half. He completed five passes to four different teammates and displayed the type of patience that QBs who win at a high level have.
Skeptics will point to the struggles of the Tush Push, but does that matter? In Week 1, 73% of Hurts’ passing yards went to his two star receivers. Green Bay knew where he wanted to go with the ball and couldn’t stop it from happening.
10) Brock Purdy (vs. NYJ): B- (67)
Purdy was 15-for-20 when not pressured by the Jets on Monday night and is easily the highest-rated signal-caller in such games since the beginning of last season.
New York owns one of the best defenses in the league, and Purdy didn’t have the Christian McCaffrey crutch.
It didn’t matter.
11) Matthew Stafford (at DET): B- (67)
Despite losing Puka Nacua in the middle of the game, Stafford adjusted the gameplan on the fly and remained ultra-efficient as he brought his Rams back to force overtime.
In Week 1, Stafford’s aDOT was 23.4% lower than in 2023. His precision and poise were on full display when weighing down Cooper Kupp with looks (21 targets!), and as the game wore on, his accuracy only improved.
12) Kyler Murray (at BUF): C+ (63)
I thought Murray looked fine in the season opener, but I was left wanting more down the stretch.
When the game was within a scoring during the final 15 minutes, Murray turned 10 pass attempts into just 28 yards.
Of course, there is significant upside, and we were one pass away from seeing it on Sunday against the Bills. If Murray sees Marvin Harrison Jr. streaking down the right sideline uncovered, his grade threatens the top-five for Week 1.
13) Jordan Love (vs. PHI): C+ (63)
Prior to getting injured on the game’s final drive, Love completed just four of nine passes on third down as he struggled to extend drives against a pretty vulnerable Eagles defense.
Love was the third-best third-down passer during his breakout stretch last season — only Mahomes and Prescott were better — and if this Green Bay team is going to make a push when he returns, he will have to display that version of himself.
14) Sam Darnold (at NYG): C+ (59)
As good as Darnold was to open the season (12 straight completions and a score to Justin Jefferson), his pressure splits were illuminating.
- When pressured: 55.6% complete, 6.0 yards per attempt
- When not pressured: 93.3% complete, 10.3 yards per attempt
If you believe in Minnesota’s offensive line, Darnold could have a big season. If not, this above-average grade is going to be a fond memory.
15) Tua Tagovailoa (vs. JAX): C (58)
The 80-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill was great to see and a reminder that this offense is just built different.
Those splash plays are more reliable in Miami’s offense than most, but in terms of grading, I have to evaluate more traditional scoring situations, and Tagovailoa underwhelmed in those spots.
When on Jacksonville’s half of the field last week, the lefty averaged just 3.1 yards per pass attempt. The NFL average for Week 1 was 5.6 yards.
To grade better for me, Tagovailoa will have to display more consistency in addition to his ability to connect on home runs.
16) Geno Smith (vs. DEN): C (56)
Smith was effective on Sunday against the Broncos, but nothing he did was special despite having plenty of weapons around him and a successful running game.
Smith was 23rd in yards per non-pressured completion in Week 1, ranking well behind Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones.
Kenneth Walker III may be able to stabilize this offense, but if the passing game doesn’t punish the opposition for sitting back in coverage, the Seahawks’ offensive upside is capped.
17) Jacoby Brissett (at CIN): C (56)
Brissett earned an average grade, and that might be the most accurate mark of the week outside of Mayfield’s “A” because New England had zero interest in letting their quarterback impact the game (league-low six first-down pass attempts).
That’s the plan — shorten the game and hope that the other team makes more mistakes.
That doesn’t give Brissett much upside in my metrics on a weekly basis, but it also raises his floor.
I’d expect this play-calling to remain steady this week, but if things go sideways with time and the Patriots move to Drake Maye, I’d expect things to open up in a significant way.
18) Justin Fields (at ATL): C (54)
Cautious optimism.
Fields has already been named the starter for this weekend, and with him completing 75% of his pocket passes last week, he offers Pittsburgh’s offense a level of upside that Russell Wilson simply doesn’t at his age.
Fields didn’t push the ball down the field much — just three deep attempts — but he did complete two of them for 73 yards. If he can be efficient on these attempts, a “C” letter grade will prove to be on the low end of expectations.
19) Lamar Jackson (at KC): C (52)
In Week 1, quarterbacks completed 60.2% of passes when in enemy territory, a rate that the reigning MVP fell well short of at 38.9%.
I’m not worried about this blip on the radar, as Jackson completed 61.3% of those passes last season. But if the Ravens want to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this winter, they need more from their star quarterback.
20) Jared Goff (vs. LAR): C (51)
Detroit was held out of the end zone when Goff wasn’t pressured on Sunday night, and his interception came on such an attempt.
My hopes were high for Goff, and they still are, but there is no excuse for a poor performance like this against a defense in flux, especially with all of the star power he has access to.
21) Trevor Lawrence (at MIA): C (50)
Lawrence had just three completions in the second half as Jacksonville went into a shell of sorts.
For me, the problems with that extend beyond the quarterback. It indicates a lack of confidence in this coaching staff.
In fairness to the play-callers, Lawrence didn’t give them a reason to load him up with usage. For the game as a whole, Lawrence completed just six of 11 short passes, a completion percentage that ranked 31st for the week (last place: Caleb Williams).
22) Gardner Minshew (at LAC): C (50)
The Raiders have three high-end athletes supporting Minshew (Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers), so it is bordering on malpractice for him to have the lowest aDOT (4.5 yards compared to an NFL average of 7.2) in any isolated week.
Minshew did rank 10th in yards per non-pressured attempt, and that provides me with hope moving forward.
If defenses try to limit that via blitzing, Minshew will have those weapons streaking down the field in single coverage situations.
23) Joe Burrow (vs. NE): C- (42)
There were whispers this offseason that Burrow continues to operate at less than full strength, and his statistical profile from Week 1 would back that up.
Against the Patriots, Burrow ranked 28th in aDOT when not pressured, a metric that, to me, indicates the coaching staff was trying to protect him.
We will see where this trend goes when Tee Higgins returns to action and Ja’Marr Chase works into game shape, but I’m nervous.
24) Kirk Cousins (vs. PIT): C- (39)
If Cousins was under heat all day and struggled in his Falcons debut, I’d be willing to overlook an underwhelming Week 1. But that wasn’t the case.
The struggles of Nix, Williams, and Levis were obvious when watching the games last week — they were the only QBs who averaged fewer yards per non-pressured dropback than Cousins.
I’m inclined to think that this isn’t a trend to worry about continuing, as Cousins was better than Prescott, Mahomes, and Hurts in those situations last season. But in a one-week sample, Sunday wasn’t pretty for the veteran.
25) Justin Herbert (vs. LV): D+ (35)
If this offense is going to be as conservative as we think, I need to see more than completing two of five red zone passes.
Herbert finished Sunday with just four completions on 10 attempts when on Vegas’ side of the field. Like Prescott, there is some “incomplete” to this profile, but I worry that in this offense, small samples are going to be consistent, and that opens him up to some poor grades.
This was a good matchup — what happens when this team goes to Pittsburgh next week before hosting Kansas City in Week 4?
26) Dak Prescott (at CLE): D+ (33)
Prescott’s grade suffers a bit from a lack of opportunity. Due to the game script, he wasn’t pushed to make clutch plays, making this grade closer to “incomplete” than failing.
The weekly grades will occasionally spit out results like that, but over the course of a season, the expectation is for water to find its level and for Prescott to get his fair share of chances to impress in a tight situation.
That said, his yards per attempt were down 27% in Week 1 from the rate he posted last season, something that will be on my mind as we move forward.
27) Daniel Jones (vs. MIN): D (27)
Mistakes are going to happen in the NFL. We are talking about alpha athletes playing at hyper-speed — so two interceptions aren’t, on the surface, something that I’m dinging Jones for in a major way.
It’s the fact that both of those picks came in non-pressured situations, and one of them came on a failed blitz.
Jones had three such interceptions all of last season, making the first game sans Saquon Barkley a poor one by all accounts.
Good luck, Malik Nabers.
28) Will Levis (at CHI): D (25)
When pressured last week against the ever-improving Bears defense, Levis had nearly as many completions to defenders (two) as teammates (four).
I’m willing to cut the second-year quarterback a little bit of slack in a new offense with DeAndre Hopkins only running nine routes, but we didn’t see the growth we had hoped for after a spotty rookie campaign.
29) Bryce Young (at NO): D- (21)
Since the beginning of last season, 4.3% of non-pressured pass attempts result in a touchdown. On 20 such passes last week, Young had zero scores and an interception. That brings his past nine-game total to two touchdown passes on 180 qualified attempts (1.1%).
That rate is bordering on difficult to comprehend. The hope was that Dave Canales would bring creativity to this offense and that Diontae Johnson would add stability. I’m not ruling those things out long-term, but it’s difficult to be encouraged by the Week 1 returns.
30) Bo Nix (at SEA): D- (21)
Rookie QBs are going to be forced to make decisions amid chaos, and if they fail, the pressure is only going to be ramped up with each passing week.
Seattle pressured Nix on 15 of his passes in his debut, during which he tallied 20 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception.
There is upside in Nix’s profile, but until he and Sean Payton can figure out a way to correct this, his grade isn’t likely to improve in a meaningful way.
31) Deshaun Watson (vs. DAL): D- (19)
There isn’t a single box that Watson checked in his season opener. He struggled across the board. But what caught my eye most was his 3.3 yards per pass when across midfield.
Despite a positive game script regarding the passing game, Watson couldn’t connect the dots as the end zone came into focus. With Dallas largely in prevent coverage, the Browns moved the ball down the field late, and yet they still managed to record an interception inside the 25-yard line.
With David Njoku banged up and Amari Cooper catching just two of nine passes thrown his way, Watson faces an uphill battle to improve in the short term.
32) Caleb Williams (vs. TEN): F (12)
Nobody is asking a rookie QB to be perfect, but the ability to extend drives is key.
Williams threw nine passes on third down in his first NFL start, and those passes netted 10 yards. Without success in those high-leverage spots, this talented Bears offense doesn’t have a chance to access the upside we all believe they have.
My QB rubric has five categories in total. Josh Allen was a top-two producer in four of them, while Baker Mayfield was the best performer in two of them. Aaron Rodgers graded out better using the metrics than the eye test, as he checked in at the 65th percentile or better in four of five areas.
As mentioned, the lack of “clutch” opportunities knocked Prescott down in the rankings, something that I expect to level out over time.
Better times are ahead for Williams because, based on my metrics, it almost literally cannot get any worse.
You’ll notice that the mobile QBs graded all over the place. Not all rush attempts hold the same value.
Pure passing is featured in this metric, but as you can see with Daniels and Richardson earning strong grades, athleticism is helpful.
Who do you think improves their standing after Week 2? We are early in the grading process, so none of the QBs are getting a note sent home just yet. But there were certainly some red flags that popped up after the first of 18 weeks.