Of all the lists, I find that the fantasy football running back sleepers one holds the most weight. Don’t get me wrong, the others are valuable, but the RB position is one of limited resources, thus making the mining of value incredibly valuable.
The “sleeper” definition varies by source. For the purposes of this article, I’m keeping it simple: my favorite values are at the position in the middle-to-back half of the draft. I’ve got for you my three top plays in the Round 7-10 range, as well as my three targets in the depth-developing portion of the festivities.
Fantasy Football RB Sleepers | First 10 Rounds
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Am I missing something here? In Year 2, Brian Robinson Jr. improved across the board. After a disrupted rookie season, Robinson’s yards per carry increased, his touchdown rate spiked, and his involvement in the passing game flipped from non-existent to a legitimate asset.
Robinson is on the right side of the age curve. Eight of the top 14 running backs last season were aged 25 or younger, and Robinson turned 25 in March. He checked all of the growth boxes last season, but we’re dragging his ADP down into the late eighth round because Austin Ekeler is now in the mix?
Forget the “age curve” when it comes to the former Charger. We saw a cliff last season.
Ekeler, Fantasy Points Compared to Expectation
- 2017-22: 17.7% above
- 2023: 21.1% under
Robinson was a viable option last season despite the Commanders being a pass-centric offense that ranked 25th in scoring. At this price, a repeat performance would be just fine, but it’s fair to expect a massive step forward in terms of the scoring environment as a whole with the duality of Jayden Daniels under center (two of the top four offenses over the past three seasons have been led by an athletic marvel calling the shots in Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts).
For his career, Robinson has 15 games with at least 15 touches, and he averaged 12.9 PPR points per game across those contests (RB24 last season). I think he’ll get there with consistency in 2024, and this level of production would return a profit based on his price.
I’m of the belief that Robinson’s involvement in the passing game sticks, even with Ekeler by his side. So it’s worth noting that he averages 14.2 ppg for his career when he sees multiple targets (RB18 last season).
With a trajectory like this and his physical peak awaiting, Robinson is a weekly starter masked as a running back with role question marks. It’s responsible to diversify your shares of players, but I’m certainly overweight on Robinson up to this point, and I don’t regret it.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
This pick is going to require some finesse, as I expect Javonte Williams’ ADP to shift as the reporting out of Denver comes in. This offseason, we’ve heard everything from Williams’ physique making him a brand new player to him being very much on the roster bubble.
The premise here is simple. We saw some special traits during Williams’ rookie season, and he’s now far enough removed from the ACL tear to expect him to build on that success.
Over the past 20 years, only six rookies who were not drafted in the first round posted a 200-carry, 40-reception season.
- 2008 Matt Forte
- 2008 Steve Slaton
- 2013 Le’Veon Bell
- 2017 Kareem Hunt
- 2020 James Robinson
- 2021 Javonte Williams
That’s not a bad list to be on, and the three most recent prior to Williams all took nice strides forward in their second season.
- Bell: YPC jumped over 34%, targets per game up over 29% in Year 2
- Hunt: Rush TD% and yards per catch increased in Year 2
- Robinson: Rush TD% and YPC up in Year 2
This obviously isn’t Year 2 for Williams. However, after losing his second season to a brutal knee injury that often takes over a full season to return to form, you could argue that, if he’s going to take the steps forward like those before him, that this is the season we see it.
Denver is a backfield with competition. Although that adds risk to Williams’ profile, it’s also very much driving down the asking price to the point where the risk/reward analysis swings in our favor.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
This feels gross to type, and clicking Ezekiel Elliott’s name in a draft room isn’t going to generate excitement, but maybe it should.
Why can’t he be 2024’s version of 2023 Gus Edwards? That is, an average-to-below-average back in terms of efficiency who piles up the touchdowns thanks to opportunities generated by an otherwise elite offense.
Edwards and Elliott are the same age and of similar build. The profile fits; there are few offenses to feel better about entering 2024.
Cowboys Ranks in 2023
- 1st in points
- 1st in red-zone drives
- 3rd in offensive plays
- 4th in offensive success rate
The industry, in my humble opinion, is overweighing what we saw from Elliott last season with the New England Patriots. That was a mess of a situation, something that isn’t the case as he rejoins the Cowboys.
Last season, a career-high 72.6% of Elliott’s rushing yards came after contact. That was the product of both a poor offensive line and a lack of respect for the passing game.
Dak Prescott is on the MVP radar entering 2024, and while Dallas’ offensive line may not be elite, it was 11th in creating yards for its running backs before contact through the first half of last season.
If the Cowboys can sustain that level of blocking, Elliott can pay off his current price tag in a major way with an Edwards-like season that also features plenty of pass-game usage.
Fantasy Football RB Sleepers | Outside the First 10 Rounds
Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings
We only have 129 NFL touches to judge Ty Chandler, and with only one collegiate season of 150+ touches, his evaluation requires some guesswork. What we can say with confidence is that Chandler runs hard, or, at the very least, he’s good at falling forward.
Touchdown Ty Chandler!
📺: MINvsCIN @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/O8u6w4GMCV— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2023
That may not seem like the sexiest of skills, but if Chandler can carve out a 10-to-15-touch role, he’s going to be on Flex radars. A season ago, 49 running backs had at least 100 carries, and Chandler ranked seventh among them in the percentage of carries that gained yardage.
For reference, here’s what the back end of that metric’s top 10 looked like:
7. Ty Chandler: 86.3%
8. Christian McCaffrey: 84.9%
9. De’Von Achane: 84.5%
10. Derrick Henry: 84.3%
I’m going to guess you didn’t think you’d see those four names on the same statistical list. Chandler isn’t on par with those fantasy superstars, but the fact that he’s been viable when given the opportunity is encouraging if you’re buying my argument that he could find himself on the plus side of a committee with time.
Even if you’re not with me, the contingent value is worth a dart throw at his current price. Aaron Jones has missed multiple games in three of the past four seasons, including six DNPs in 2023.
MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers
Thanks to the massive 2022 season (2,053 yards and 12 touchdowns), the perception of Josh Jacobs is a little more favorable than his résumé suggests is wise. That was the only season of his career in which he’s played every game and saw him rack up 4.9 yards per carry. He’s been held under 4.1 in his three most recent seasons outside of that outlier year.
I think it’s fair to say that AJ Dillon isn’t what this franchise thought he was (YPC down every season of his career with just two scores on 178 carries last season), thus meaning my bet against Jacobs is one on MarShawn Lloyd (1,052 yards on 129 touches at USC last season).
Lloyd has been the subject of some positive reviews this summer, and Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur has made it clear that he wants to implement a committee.
Some fantasy managers are viewing that as a reason to fade Lloyd, citing a lack of true role upside. I’ll take the other side of that argument and say that early opportunity gives the rookie a chance to earn more volume.
The risk right now is minimal, and I don’t expect that to change given how the industry is viewing Jacobs — take advantage.
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
From a profile standpoint, the idea of Tyler Allgeier is simple: I’ll never have to make a decision about playing him.
If Bijan Robinson is healthy, I have better options. If Robinson were to get hurt, I’m penciling in Allgeier for 70% of his production and starting him (context: Robinson is my RB2 this season, and 70% of RB2 last season would have been 14.9 ppg, good for RB15 honors).
Situation aside, Allgeier might just be a decent player. Last season, he ranked 22nd among running backs in production compared to expectation, one slot behind what Robinson produced in the exact same environment. I don’t doubt that he’s an NFL-caliber running back, and I’d be comfortable playing him as a high-floor option if the situation presented itself.
The ceiling is where Robinson distances himself from his backup. Allgeier had the 12th-highest percentage of carries last season that failed to gain yardage (19.4%), a flaw that some of the game’s best backs have (Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Breece Hall all actually had higher rates in 2023). The difference is that those running backs carry game-breaking upside.
The only player with a higher failure rate and a lower 10+ yard rush rate than Allgeier last season was Elliott, another sleeper we’re actively trying to talk ourselves out of drafting.
Those two (Elliott and Allgeier) ranked in the Edwards/Dillon range in terms of explosive runs, making top-10 production in any given week a long shot, even if he were to be used the way we expect Robinson to be.
There wasn’t room for two fantasy running backs in Atlanta last season, and that was a year in which they led the league in rush rate over expectation. Allgeier isn’t a “draft and hope he carves out a niche” type of player; he’s strictly a handcuff. With that understanding, I’m adding him with regularity in the late rounds.
Players in this ADP range include Antonio Gibson, Roschon Johnson, and Ray Davis. I’d wager, with confidence, that all of those backs outscore Allgeier in the majority of weeks. Yet, barring an injury, it’s unlikely you’re ever starting any of them. So why not swing for the option in the best spot should an injury occur ahead of Allgeier on the depth chart?