Raheem Mostert is an intriguing waiver wire target in Week 5 as fantasy football managers look for more depth at the RB position. With Mostert’s role for the Miami Dolphins having grown through the season, let’s examine whether fantasy managers should add him and how he should be prioritized.
Is Raheem Mostert a Week 5 Waiver Wire Target for Fantasy Managers?
It’s an intriguing situation for the Dolphins through the first four weeks. Mostert’s snap share has grown from 42% in Week 1 to around 55% in Weeks 2 and 3, before peaking at 72% in Week 4. His opportunities also have trended upwards during that stretch. Mostert has had double-digit opportunities in each of the past three weeks, topping out at 18 opportunities in Week 4 — tripling the amount he saw in Week 1.
Over the past three weeks, Mostert has had 34 rushing attempts and eight targets. Additionally, after Chase Edmonds had the only two carries inside the 5-yard line prior to Week 4, it was Mostert who had both carries inside the 5 this past week.
However, the negative for Mostert is that Edmonds continued to see usage inside the red zone, with all three RB targets in that part of the field. That included two targets for Edmonds inside the 10-yard line. With Mostert continuing to lose opportunities inside the red zone, it caps his ceiling considerably.
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Mostert has yet to find the end zone in 2022, while Edmonds has scored three touchdowns in the past two weeks. Therefore, Edmonds has actually been the better fantasy-point producer in that stretch, despite Mostert seeing the bigger role.
It’s not a huge surprise that we’ve seen a shift towards Mostert in the Dolphins’ backfield. According to Next Gen Stats, Edmonds is averaging more than two yards below expectation per rushing attempt, by far the worst number in the league. However, Mostert is hardly performing incredibly, either. He’s averaging -0.36 yards below expectation per attempt and is only outperforming expectations on 31.6% of his rushing attempts.
The other thing that is key to note with Mostert is that his career high in touches for a single season is 151. He’s already over 30% of the way to that total. Therefore, any view to adding Mostert on the waiver wire this week should be limited. Additionally, Edmonds will likely continue to mix in at the goal line, which will limit Mostert’s upside.
How Should Fantasy Managers Prioritize Mostert on the Week 5 Waiver Wire?
The situation when it comes to Mostert as a waiver wire target is somewhat frustrating. Usually, a back seeing a jump to a 70% snap share and a consistent double-digit target share would be a safe player to add on waivers and start on a weekly basis. However, that is not the case with Mostert right now because of Edmonds’ role around the goal line. That, therefore, limits how you prioritize Mostert on waivers in Week 5.
The injuries to Javonte Williams and Cordarrelle Patterson have created intriguing questions on the waiver wire this week. With the backfield situations in Denver and Atlanta now seemingly open to be claimed, fantasy managers can either gamble on the upside of finding the lead back in those situations or look for the seemingly safer option of Mostert, whose ceiling is currently capped.
An additional aspect with Mostert is the injury concerns capping how you can view him. If it wasn’t for those injury concerns, you could potentially see Mostert as a regular Flex starter through the rest of the year, which would increase his waiver wire value. However, with him having only managed 243 rushing attempts in the past three seasons, that concern is hard to overlook.
Injuries are tough to predict, and we’ve seen in recent weeks how they can come out of nowhere. Yet, with Mostert, you’re taking on that risk while also seemingly getting a limited ceiling with his current role in the offense.
If you’re looking for an RB to plug and play in Week 5, then Mostert is a solid option for that. However, Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley are also intriguing options for that as they look set to take over from Patterson. Mostert potentially has a longer-term appeal than either of those two, with Damien Williams set to return from IR. Mostert sits slightly higher on the priority list than Latavius Murray and Mike Boone, who are in their own tricky situation in Denver, with Melvin Gordon III also involved.