By far, the most devastating news of Week 4 was the Javonte Williams injury. My least favorite part of football is having to discuss the aftermath of injuries to anyone, let alone young ascending superstars. Unfortunately, the show must go on. We must now address how much of a priority Mike Boone is for fantasy football managers to add off the waiver wire ahead of Week 5.
What Is Mike Boone’s Role Going to Be?
Fantasy is never easy. If you asked me a week ago what would happen if Williams went down with an injury, I would’ve said Melvin Gordon III would be the RB1 and Boone the RB2. Well, we saw this scenario play out in Week 4, and that is not what happened.
There’s no way to spin what we saw in Week 4 as anything other than Boone being the RB1 and Gordon being the RB2. After Williams went out, I’m sure we all assumed we would see Gordon on the next drive. Instead, it was all Boone.
Boone played 19 snaps in the game. Gordon played just 10. Boone ran 12 routes against Gordon’s five. Both handled three carries, while Boone out-targeted Gordon 3-1. The most pressing question for fantasy managers is whether this was a one-game deal or a harbinger of things to come.
One of the reasons I’m hesitant to assume Boone is “the guy” is because Gordon fumbled in the game. Gordon has now fumbled five times in his last 44 carries — to say that is wholly unacceptable would be an understatement. It also doesn’t help that three of them were returned for touchdowns.
Gordon was pretty much benched after his fumble against the Raiders. Of course, that doesn’t mean his benching will carry over into future games. It does mean that if Gordon can’t get his fumbling under control, he will continue to find himself riding the pine.
Mike Boone Has Produced in the Past
In 2019, Boone became the de facto lead back for the Vikings’ final three weeks of the season. He posted 17.6 PPR fantasy points in Week 15, carrying fantasy managers to finals. Then, he may have cost fantasy managers a title with just 4.3 points.
In his final act, he added insult to insult by rattling off 160 total yards and finishing as the RB7 with 24 PPR fantasy points in a meaningless Week 17 game.
Boone is by no means some reliable running back. But he has shown a ceiling. If he gets reasonable volume, he will be fantasy-viable.
The Broncos Sniped Latavius Murray from the Saints’ Practice Squad
Latavius Murray made his season debut in London last Sunday and looked like the best running back on the Saints’ roster (Alvin Kamara not included). Unfortunately (for them), they relegated him back to the practice squad after the game, allowing the Broncos to swoop in and steal him away.
We’ve seen this happen all too many times in the past. Boone is a 27-year-old former UDFA journeyman running back. Murray is a nine-year veteran. Teams trust him. It would not surprise me at all if he wound up being the RB2 behind Gordon or if this devolved into a three-man committee.
Should Fantasy Managers Prioritize Mike Boone on the Week 5 Waiver Wire?
I’m torn on this one. On the one hand, Boone is a potential lead back for an above-average offense. If he and Gordon operate under a similar split to the one Gordon and Williams were in last season, Boone will have weekly RB3 value with RB2 upside.
On the other hand, how valuable is an RB3 with RB2 upside? And what if Gordon ends up being the lead back with Boone as a mere handcuff? What if Murray is more involved than we think? Boone is a 27-year-old former UDFA with 78 career carries. Expecting him to be a 12-to-14-touch back suddenly seems a bit ambitious.
If you have Gordon on your roster, I’d be willing to get more aggressive targeting Boone. Even if you’re wrong and Boone doesn’t have any value, that means Gordon does, so you’ve got yourself an RB2 regardless.
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If you don’t have Gordon, it depends on league size and what’s out there on waivers. How likely is it you’ll have a better spot to dump your FAAB (or waiver priority) on an RB? How much do you need to take a shot at getting an RB2/3?
Boone is probably the top running back available on your waiver wire. I expect the range of bids on him to vary wildly. In some leagues, he will go for under 15%. In others, I can see him going for over 50%.
I recommend spending what you feel you need for your team. I absolutely would not go over 40% outside of very deep leagues. In standard-sized leagues, Murray has me pulling back on my offers as his presence inherently lowers Boone’s ceiling.