Strategy is the lifeblood of DFS. When building your fantasy football lineup, you must not only consider the players you want to build around but also the opportunity cost associated with every single decision you make.
In paying up for one position, you’re taking money away from another. Every decision you make impacts the rest of your lineup, and you must also consider what your competition will be doing — how can you separate yourself from the pack?
Everyone plays DFS with different goals in mind. We all want to win, of course, but the path to success varies greatly based on game type. Below, I run through my thought process behind building a lineup for cash games and smaller tournaments.
I prefer to play in contests with entry limitations, thus ensuring that I am putting my lineup against carefully selected single entries rather than just relying on our DFS optimizer to give me multiple lineups based on my inputs.
Let’s have a big Week 4!
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Week 4 DFS Picks
Let’s do things a little bit differently here. In this article, we will give you the final product before taking you through the ingredients and recipe below.
- QB: Derek Carr
- RB1: Saquon Barkley
- RB2: Zack Moss
- WR1: Chris Olave
- WR2: Terry McLaurin
- WR3: Greg Dortch
- TE: Kyle Pitts
- FLEX: Najee Harris
- DST: Texans
DFS Game Stack: Saints at Falcons
Four games on this main slate (no SNF or MNF) jumped off the screen to me for potential stacking options, and I can’t imagine I’m alone.
- Commanders/Cardinals
- Bengals/Panthers
- Eagles/Buccaneers
- Saints/Falcons
Those look, to me, like the four games that will draw the most interest and for good reason. I listed them in the order that I think the field will prioritize them and, like any good manager, I’m targeting the end of a tier.
That’s not to say that I won’t have exposure to the others (keep reading), but this spot in the Georgia Dome has my full attention, especially if, due to the presence of the other three games, the ownership numbers come in low.
Why you ask? Let’s get nerdy.
There are only four defenses in the NFL, through three weeks, that own a bottom 10 pressure rate despite a top 10 blitz rate. Those two stats are correlated in most situations, so when they work in opposite directions, I like to take full advantage.
Of the four teams on that list, only one ranks top-12 in pace of play on the offensive side of the ball, making them a team worth attacking – they leave their defenders out on an island, can’t get pressure, and play with tempo on the other end, giving the ball back to the offense we are stacking.
That defense is the Atlanta Falcons.
Now we are getting somewhere. Derek Carr lit the fantasy world on first through two weeks before laying an egg against the Eagles in Week 3 (142 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception), a result that very well could impact his popularity this week, especially with far more “exciting” skill sets in the other three games that I expect to garner interest.
Since the beginning of last season (I didn’t want two big games to skew all of the data), here are Carr’s ranks among 31 qualifiers when not pressured.
- Interception Rate: 4th
- Completion Percentage: 3rd
- Touchdown Rate: 2nd
- Passer Rating: 2nd
- Sack Rate: 1st
In essence, he offers the exact profile that I’d want when facing a high blitz, low pressure opponent. The next question is who to pair him with. Alvin Kamara is a more viable stacking option than most running backs due to his usage in the passing game, but he has 71 touches this season and is battling a few injuries. Rashid Shaheed has seen his production mirror that of Carr, making him a logical option for a super cheap stack that will open up access to the other games, but he’s limited on the target earning front and it’s largely been the WR1’s that have feasted against Atlanta.
Since the beginning of last season, these are the receivers who cleared 18 PPR points against the Falcons during the fantasy season (excluding Week 18):
- DeAndre Hopkins: 34.8 PPR points
- DJ Moore: 30.9 PPR points
- Rashee Rice: 29.1 PPR points
- DeVonta Smith: 20.6 PPR points (AJ Brown was inactive)
- Mike Evans: 20.2 PPR points
- Jayden Reed: 19.7 PPR points
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 19.6 PPR points
- Chris Olave: 18.4 PPR points
Like I said, no surprises. Opponents have been able to funnel their targets exactly where they want to and the Falcons have been able to do little to stop it.
Olave has yet to experience a true breakout game this season, but a massive game is bubbling just beneath the surface. Among the 77 receivers with at least 10 targets this season, he ranks 10th in yards per route, fantasy points per target, and fantasy efficiency.
If I think the Saints are going to bounce back, it stands to reason to think that the Falcons are going to have to try to keep up. Drake London is coming on and Darnell Mooney has cleared expectations by a wide margin this season, but I’m filling my TE spot with Kyle Pitts.
Like Olave, Pitts’ profile looks better than his raw production – at the position, he checks in at fourth in fantasy points per target and second in aDOT. If we are going to narrow the sample and only look at the past two games, a stretch in which Kirk Cousins has looked more comfortable, this play only gains steam.
Since the beginning of last season, the Saints have proven to be the bizzaro Falcons in that they excel at creating pressure without needing a blitz. Pitts has run 12 routes over the past two weeks when Cousins has found himself in such a spot and he’s earned five targets. At his cost, I’m happy to pull on that thread at a 14% discount from the top tier – a middle zone that often goes under owned as managers tend to pay for Tier 1 or punt the position all together.
DFS Skinny Stack: Commanders at Cardinals
Just because this looks like the chalk game of the slate doesn’t mean you have to avoid it entirely to win. Remember, this game is one of putting together the best lineup as a whole – you can roster popular pieces in an unpopular way, something that I’m doing here by not having my quarterback in this game.
What Terry McLaurin did on Monday night was huge. Sure, the stat line was impressive, but Jayden Daniels looking for him in a field stretching manner creates a ceiling that I wasn’t sure we’d see after those first two weeks of conservative play-calling from Kliff Kingsbury.
JAYDEN DANIELS. TERRY MCLAURIN. THE COMMANDERS.
📺: #WASvsCIN on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/bP5qrpGN8q— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2024
We will see if Daniels can parlay his huge Week 3 into a rookie of the year performance, but I think it’s safe to say that he should be effective in this spot against a Cards defense that ranks no better than 25th in touchdown rate, YAC, yards per attempt, and completion percentage.
If this bet on McLaurin comes through, Arizona is going to be aggressive in their play-calling against the worst defense in the league in terms of average drive distance, points per drive, and touchdown rate. In fact, I’d argue that their best defense in this game could be their offense, creating a need for an efficient pass game that keeps them ahead of the change.
Enter Greg Dortch, the cheap way to get a piece of the fireworks.
Per the Week 4 Start/Sit novel, Dortch’s slot rate has more than doubled from last season (from 30.8% to 64.5%), and the slot has been an advantageous spot against the Commanders. Thus far, opponents have completed 28 of 34 passes (82.4%) when looking that way for 304 yards and four scores against Washington, producing an elite passer rating (143.1).
DFS is a game of storytelling. If Dortch pays off his price tag due to a high volume of opportunities (career: 9.5 yards per catch), Arizona is methodically moving the ball down the field. In the story I’m telling, this slows down the pace of this game, thus limiting the upside of the popular pieces in this game while I get some cheap PPR points.
DST Skeleton Key
I’ll run through my other skill position plays in a minute, but I like selecting my DST early in the process so that I’m fully aware of the money I have available in selecting my remaining skill players. The Texans struggled to get home against Anthony Richardson in the season opener, but over the past two weeks, they rank sixth in pressure rate and given the struggles of Trevor Lawrence (his QB+ grade has declined each week: C, C-, D-), that rate presents high levels of upside.
Only three teams allow pressure non-blitz pressure at a higher rate than Jacksonville this season and if you believe that this game is handicapped correctly (Texans -6.5), the Jaguars are going to be forced into an aggressive script and that’s exactly what we are looking for
Running Back Quick Hitters
Saquon Barkley at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers get pigeon-holed as a run stuffing unit, but they currently rank 30th in terms of EPA against the run. Barkley has cleared 20 touches in all three of his games with the Eagles and with his playmaking teammates banged up, I’m comfortable in paying up in a week where the top end of the RB board is full of tough matchups.
Zack Moss at Panthers
The Panthers were gashed by Alvin Kamara in Week 1 and J.K. Dobbins in Week 2. They played with a lead against the Raiders last week and that masked their struggles in stopping the run, but I find it unlikely that we get a repeat performance this weekend. Moss has distanced himself from Chase Brown in this backfield and the Bengals are a good bet to try to keep their vulnerable defense off the field.
Najee Harris at Colts
Indianapolis shutting down Chicago’s backfield last week might have some people off of their scent, but this is the same defense that coughed up over 150 yards on the ground to both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs to open the season. With Jaylen Warren ailing and Pittsburgh’s offense being one that looks to stay on the field, I’m in. Harris’ price tag is more than reasonable when you blend his projected role with a plus-plus-matchup.