The New England Patriots have way more questions than answers regarding fantasy football this season. At this stage, we are not even sure that there will be a single fantasy-relevant player on the offense, let alone multiple options.
Arguably, the biggest uncertainty is at wide receiver, where a relatively untested group is also dealing with questions at the quarterback position, further complicating their profile.
Let’s break down the fantasy football outlooks of Ja’Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, and Javon Baker to examine whether there is any potential value to be found among the Patriots’ WRs.
Ja’Lynn Polk Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 145.1 (97.1 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 48.0
- Receiving Yards: 719.5
- Receiving TDs: 4.0
Polk put up 1,159 yards and nine scores at Washington last season, impressive numbers at face value and downright remarkable when you consider that he did so alongside Rome Odunze.
I don’t have many questions about what Polk is capable of, but I have a ton of questions about the number of opportunities this offense will afford him.
Consider this: Douglas ranked 78th in the NFL in receiving yards last season — 142 yards clear of any other Patriots target.
There’s no such thing as a bad final pick in your draft, and if you want to bet on the talent, go for it. I do think Douglas has a better chance at working himself into the weekly Flex discussion, and he owns a similar ADP. The same goes for Ray Davis (Buffalo Bills) and even Roman Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers).
Polk is a very interesting dynasty play, given his ability to develop alongside (hopefully) the team’s franchise quarterback, Drake Maye. Generally speaking, I love doubling down on an offense that goes with a youth movement, especially when its short-term is underwhelming.
No one is expecting big things from the Patriots this season, but if the foundation they built in the 2024 NFL Draft sticks, the Maye-Polk tandem could impact fantasy leagues down the road significantly.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
DeMario Douglas Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 148.2 (91.2 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 57.0
- Receiving Yards: 683.4
- Receiving TDs: 2.8
Douglas averaged a mere 7.7 fantasy points per game as a rookie. Obviously, we shouldn’t care about a player who does that for fantasy. However, further context is key to understanding Douglas’ rookie campaign.
From Week 1 to Week 6, Douglas was nothing more than rotational depth. He played 41% of the snaps in Week 1 but was between 8% and 33% the next four weeks. In Week 6, he was a healthy inactive.
Then, things changed in Week 7, as Douglas became more heavily integrated into the offense. He played at least 62% of the snaps in all but one of his remaining games in which he was active. By the final two weeks of the season, Douglas was a 90%-snap-share player.
Given his lack of touchdowns, Douglas was never truly an impact fantasy asset. As we know, touchdowns are everything in fantasy football. They are also quite random.
Once upon a time, another Patriots WR, Jakobi Meyers, amassed 1,560 receiving yards before scoring a touchdown. It’s rare, but it happens. If Douglas doesn’t score any touchdowns this year, he won’t matter much in fantasy. But his usage suggests he should be able to.
Douglas enters the 2024 season as the No. 1 on the Patriots’ depth chart at WR. He could end up leading this team in targets. He also could be overtaken by Polk and Baker.
Therein lies the risk in Day 3 wide receivers. Unless they really smash like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Puka Nacua did in their respective rookie seasons, it won’t take much for them to lose their spot. As easily as Douglas could lead the Patriots in targets, he could be out of the league in two years.
With that said, there isn’t really any risk with Douglas at all. He’s going off the board as WR67. In many fantasy leagues, he won’t even be drafted.
I do think Douglas is a solid player who will remain in the NFL for the better part of the next decade. There is no risk associated with drafting him. However, what exactly is the upside?
I have Douglas ranked as my WR64, which is right in line with consensus. He’s a fine late-round dart throw, but not necessarily one I am excited to make. It’s just hard to envision the Patriots’ offense propelling any wide receiver to high enough heights that they would make an impact in fantasy matchups.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Javon Baker Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 133.9 (80.3 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 53.6
- Receiving Yards: 589.1
- Receiving TDs: 3.6
I’m all for targeting ambiguous receiver rooms, but I need to have a strong collegiate profile or a plus offensive environment to do so on a rookie.
Baker averaged 22.5 yards per catch at UCF last season; that’s nice, though his big-play production at that level of competition tells us nothing about his ability to earn targets at the professional level.
As for the “offensive environment” portion of the equation, good luck with that.
The Patriots are on the short list of favorites to be the lowest-scoring team in the NFL this season, putting all of their skill-position players in a tough spot to return value on any sort of consistent basis.
Could Baker ascend to the top-3 in the New England target hierarchy? It’s possible, but he could also finish fifth or sixth. If I’m stashing a receiver, I want the potential hit to be big.
Whether it is being an injury away or a bet on elite quarterback play, I value my roster spots, and I can only excuse occupying one on a project type if I stand to benefit in a big way.
That’s not the case here.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst