As we creep towards October, the impact of weather forecasts on NFL games will start to increase, and fantasy football managers will have to begin considering it.
We haven’t seen any major impact from the weather through three weeks, but with the lingering effects of Hurricane Helene in areas of the country, plus the weather cooling off, could that be set to change?
Let’s examine the NFL weather forecasts for Week 4, with one game having the potential to be heavily impacted by the combination of wind and rain. Which fantasy options should you be nervous about, and who could get a boost this week?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 4 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 3 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: 15% chance at kickoff decreasing throughout the game
- Wind: 17 mph northeasterly with gusts up to 24 mph
There is the potential of some weather impact in this game, with some rain in the area and winds varying between 15 to 25 miles per hour. The rain could be the crucial element here. It is expected to be gone by the end of the first quarter, if not before kickoff. However, it could linger, and then this game becomes a concern for fantasy managers.
Historically, on a clear day with winds between 15-19 mph or 20-24 mph, there is a relatively small increase in fantasy point production. Across the two, the average decrease in fantasy point production is less than 5%.
However, once you add rain into the mix, things become considerably different. Games with rain and winds between 15 to 19 mph see an average fantasy point decrease of just under 20% compared to the equivalent on a clear day. The combination of rain and winds between 20 and 24 mph see a historical fantasy point reduction of just under 24%.
Therefore, this is a game to watch. If the forecast closer to kickoff shows the rain lingering into the game, then we should start downgrading fantasy options. That is especially the case in the passing game, with passing yards per game dropping by around 50-70 yards per game when there is the rain and wind combination.
It’s worth noting that rushing yards per game see a slight uptick, so Kyren Williams and the Bears’ running backs would still be viewed in the same way. The biggest impact would be on the likes of DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Caleb Williams, Matthew Stafford, and the Rams’ pass catchers.
Kickers also tend to struggle more historically when there is wind and rain, so if that’s the case, you should look to avoid Cairo Santos and Joshua Karty in all formats.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 80s
- Showers: ~50% chance at kickoff dropping throughout the game
- Wind: 6 mph southwesterly
This game in Raymond James Stadium is going to look worse than it actually is for fantasy managers. Yes, there could be sustained rain throughout the game, but the wind speed is low enough that the impact should be minimal.
Over the last 10 years, we’ve seen a decrease of just 5% in terms of fantasy points per game when there is rain accompanied by wind speeds below 10 mph. There is a slight shift from passing fantasy points to rushing fantasy points, but you’re talking within a 10% margin, making it hard to downgrade any receivers or boost any backs too much based on the weather forecast.
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 80s
- Showers: 15% chance at kickoff with increased chance during
- Wind: 7 mph southerly
We could see some rain in Carolina this week, but the intensity is not expected to be high, so the impact should be low. Historically, games with rain at kickoff and wind in the 5-9 mph region average 88.76 PPR fantasy points, with touchdowns per drive dipping just below 20%. Those are both slight dips on games that are clear with a similar wind speed (94.32 fantasy points per game and 21.4% touchdown-to-drive ratio).
Overall, there isn’t much for fantasy managers to worry about here. The game should not be overly impacted by the weather, and any decrease should be relatively small. That impact is further mitigated by the rain potentially not arriving until the second half. Therefore, you should look at there being around a 5% decrease in fantasy point production decrease in this game.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-12 mph northeasterly with a chance of gusts during the game
The weather forecast at Lambeau Field is fairly pleasant, as we would probably expect for a late-September kickoff. The wind creeping up to around that 10 mph mark could have an impact, but we’re talking about maybe a 5% decrease at most. Even the gusts up to 18-20 mph would only take it to around a 7% decrease.
As long as rain doesn’t creep into the forecast before kickoff, which there is no indication it should, there should be no concern over the weather in terms of fantasy value for Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Reed, Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, and company.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 60s
- Showers: 18% chance at kickoff decreasing throughout the game
- Wind: 8 mph northeasterly
This game in MetLife was one that we had our eyes on as potentially getting the tail end of Hurricane Helene in some potential scenarios. However, there are relatively few concerns here as long as the rain clears up, either before the game or early in the first half.
Even if the rain does linger, the combination of rain and winds below 10 mph generally results in a fantasy point decrease of less than 5%. There is no reason to downgrade anyone in this game because of the weather as things stand.
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-10 mph northwesterly
The weather forecast in Santa Clara doesn’t offer much to be concerned about. There is no rain, winds will increase throughout the game but will reach no higher than 10 mph, and the temperature is comfortable.
There is no reason to downgrade anyone in this game, so you can approach Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Mason, Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, etc., in largely the same way you would in a dome.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Mid-60s
- Showers: 50% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7-9 mph northeasterly
We could be in for a wet Sunday Night Football in Baltimore. The current forecast projects rain throughout the game but at a relatively low intensity. Rain accompanied by winds below 10 miles per hour results in an average 5% decrease of fantasy points compared to the same wind in clear conditions.
There is around a 10% uptick in rushing output in games with these conditions compared to clear games and a corresponding 10% decrease in passing/receiving fantasy output. Additionally, kicking from a distance does get impacted, with rates beyond 40 yards dropping by up to 10%.
The upshot here is that Derrick Henry and James Cook should see a slight upturn in value. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen largely remain pretty flat as they supplement their passing production with their legs. The receiving options all get a marginal downgrade, while you may want to take a longer consideration over Justin Tucker and Tyler Bass than you might on a clear day.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins | Monday, 7:30 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Mid-80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7 mph southeasterly
We should caveat anything here by noting that we are still 36+ hours from this game when writing this article, so things could change. However, the early signs are positive.
Any rain in the area is expected to be gone ahead of kickoff. Even if it does linger, the result would be a slight increase for backs and a marginal decrease for passing, receiving, and kicking options.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions | Monday, 8:15 p.m.