Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top Underdog Pick’em plays for the Monday Night Football Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Monday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Note: I currently only have two picks for tonight’s game. There will be a third that shows up later tonight once we have projections for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ running backs. With Leonard Fournette questionable, Underdog understandably cannot give out numbers for Rachaad White (or Fournette himself) without knowing if Fournette is playing. Once we get confirmation, I will add the third pick, and that will complete our entry for tonight.
Tom Brady Lower Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Let’s give the old man some credit — he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in two straight games now. That brings Tom Brady’s total games with 2+ touchdown passes to three. It also came against the Browns and Seahawks.
The New Orleans Saints allow just 1.17 passing touchdowns per game. Only Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, and Geno Smith have thrown multiple touchdowns against the Saints.
MORE: Buccaneers vs. Saints Player Props for Monday Night Football
Back in Week 2, when these teams first met, Brady threw for 190 yards and just a single touchdown. While I do think we see a more efficient and prolific Brady through the air, I’m once again expecting no more than a single touchdown pass.
Alvin Kamara Lower Than 49.5 Rushing Yards
Over the past month, we’ve seen Alvin Kamara’s production tick down considerably. In Weeks 1-8, Kamara averaged 15.8 carries per game. However, from Weeks 9-12, that number has dipped to 9.0 carries per game.
For Kamara to produce on the ground, he would have to be efficient. He can definitely still make things happen through the air, seeing as he is 12th in yards after the catch per reception among running backs with at least 30 targets. However, on the ground, it’s a different story.
Just 3.1% of Kamara’s carries have gone for 15+ yards. His evaded tackles rate is outside the top 40. This is all despite over 50% of his carries coming against a defensive front with six or fewer defenders in the box.
When running backs decline late in their career, the receiving tends to stick around while the rushing ability diminishes rapidly. I believe that is what we are seeing with Kamara.
The Bucs allow 4.4 yards per carry and 95.4 rushing yards per game. For Kamara to get to 50 rushing yards, he will either need volume or efficiency. With Mark Ingram II in the lineup, the volume is unlikely. And Kamara has proven to be inefficient all season. He should finish with something like 10-12 carries for 35-45 yards.
Rachaad White Lower Than 9.95 Fantasy Points
Rachaad White’s projections all reflect Leonard Fournette being active tonight, which was the expectation after he got in three full practices this week. For White to hit double-digit fantasy points, he either needs to be really efficient or he needs to score. With Fournette active, the volume he’s seen his past two games just won’t be there.
The Saints allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. They allow just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs.
Against the Saints, White’s odds of scoring are below 50% under ideal circumstances. As half of a timeshare with Fournette, the only way he is scoring is if the Bucs happen to get near the goal line on a series where it’s his turn. So, we’ve got a 50/50 shot at a sub-50% proposition.
Without a touchdown, White will need to either rack up the receptions — something he hasn’t done with Fournette in the lineup — or total about 70+ yards. Both of those scenarios seem unlikely. White should be limited to single digits in what I like to be a low-scoring game.