Fresh off a bye week, the Denver Broncos play the Buffalo Bills in the second round of the playoffs. The former will be without tight end Lucas Krull and linebacker Drew Sanders. That said, the Broncos are still in a good position to secure the win at home thanks to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Here are the keys to the game.
The Broncos Win if RJ Harvey Exploits the Matchup
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has seven game-winning drives this season, but it’s RJ Harvey that needs to come through in the clutch this week. The Bills’ defense allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game (136.2). And since becoming the main back in the Broncos’ backfield in Week 11, Harvey is averaging north of 16 touches per game (carries and receptions). Harvey, though, is No. 47 in PFSN’s NFL RB Impact Metric.
And the Bills’ defense allows the fewest passing yards per game, although the Broncos’ offense totals 223.9 passing yards per game (No. 11). In a passing league, pick offense over defense — but the Broncos’ offense, No. 15 in PFSN’s NFL Offense Impact Metric, is better off exploiting the matchup against the Bills on the ground. Harvey has a chance to edge Bills running back James Cook this week in scrimmage yards.
Yes, the Bills average the most rushing yards per game (159.6). But applying tacit knowledge, it’s slightly easier to attack the Broncos’ defense through the air.
The Broncos Lose if the Defense Can’t Contain Josh Allen Late
Allen is third in PFSN’s NFL QB Impact Metric. He is coming off a 300-plus scrimmage yard, three-touchdown game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars’ defense, meanwhile, totaled one turnover against Allen last week. For the Broncos to win the shootout vs. the Bills, the former’s defense will have to pull off a key turnover against the latter’s offense. A la the Bills’ defense vs. the Jaguars’ offense in the first round of the playoffs.
On the season, the Broncos’ defense has just 14 takeaways (tied for fourth-fewest). So, like with Harvey on offense, this week’s keys to the game are filled with optimism. In other words, this matchup is a coinflip. In fact, PFSN Analytics has the Broncos’ chances of winning the AFC Divisional matchup at 54.4% and the Bills’ chances at 45.6%.
Both teams are in the top five of the Power Rankings, and offensive line play as well. The Bills are fifth and fourth, respectively — and the Broncos are third and fifth, respectively. And whereas the Bills’ offense is third in PFSN’s NFL Offense Impact Metric, the Broncos’ defense is first in PFSN’s NFL Defense Impact Metric. This is an offensive juggernaut vs. a defense juggernaut, but the Broncos’ offense, if it rises to the occasion, can secure the win.
Prediction: Broncos 37–31
This prediction can very likely end up 37-31 in favor of the Bills. It’s going to be a photo finish.
