If the sheer thought of the 2024 NFL season starting later this week is enough to have the hair on your arms stand up or cause you to lose sleep over the next couple of nights, then I would like you to know that you’re not alone. Football is back!
This means it’s time to formulate our official strategy for your survivor league entering the upcoming 2024 campaign, which I am proud to help guide you through this journey throughout this year. Here’s a closer look at my Week 1 picks paired with a plan through the first month of the season.
Survivor Picks Strategy for NFL Week 1
If this is the first time you have ever played in a survivor league, then allow me to be the first to welcome you to the party. If this is your introduction to survivor, then allow me to describe the rules very quickly.
You pick one NFL team every week who you believe is going to win their game. If your team wins, you survive to play another week. However, if your team loses, then you’re eliminated from the competition. When there is one player remaining in the league, a champion can be crowned.
It sounds pretty simple, right? I win, I advance.
So, I should just pick the biggest favorite every week, correct? You can, but one thing you should be aware of is the potential long-term ripple effect your decision can have later in the season.
One other rule that is very important and pretty universal across survivor leagues is once you select a team as your pick for that week, you cannot select that team again for the rest of the season.
This means if you simply select the biggest favorite on a weekly basis — which will normally include some of the best teams in the league — you could leave yourself with very few quality options later in the year when bye weeks begin.
The survivor concept may be easy, but just taking a small amount of forecasting into consideration early in the year can pay huge dividends later on.
This is why I’m here to provide you with some additional long-term strategies to help optimize your weekly picks to position yourself to win now and later and, ultimately, hoist your survivor league championship trophy.
I don’t particularly have any unbreakable rules when selecting games, but I have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
I want to be clear. This doesn’t mean you can’t pick a divisional matchup when making your weekly selection — just be cognizant of the fact that opponents who are very familiar with one another could play out a bit differently than you expect if you’re just looking at team records.
This appropriately brings us to the section where we start laying out our battle plan for the first month of the season. To accomplish that objective, here are two sets of strategies you could deploy to keep those teams available heading into October.
Strategy 1
Week 1: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. NE)
Week 2: Baltimore Ravens (vs. LV)
Week 3: Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (vs. NE)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, BUF, DAL, MIA, HOU
Strategy 2
Week 1: Buffalo Bills (vs. ARI)
Week 2: Dallas Cowboys (vs. NO)
Week 3: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. WAS)
Week 4: New York Jets (vs. DEN)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, BAL, SF, MIA, HOU
In both strategies, you get to keep more than a handful of projected playoff teams with some elite options at quarterback available after the first month of the season, which really comes into play once bye weeks begin in Week 5.
Another strategy that can be popular is to simply tail a terrible football team. I am completely on board with this strategy, which means targeting teams we expect to struggle could work out very well. However, I would advise waiting until we get to Week 3 to deploy that strategy.
If you recall, most NFL pundits didn’t expect the Houston Texans to be a playoff team last year — which means they eliminated many survivor league participants in 2023 when they turned out to be far better than expected.
Sure, we expect teams like the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Tennessee Titans to struggle this year. But I would still exercise a bit of caution early on before assuming these teams will be awful in 2024.
Additionally, every NFL season sees teams expected to contend for a playoff spot fall out of contention due to injuries, which makes formulating an entire season-long plan very difficult.
Yet, for those who want to have an optimal strategy for the entire season, here’s the pick sheet I would enter for my survivor league every week prior to the start of the 2024 season.
2024 NFL Season Survivor Strategy for Every Week
Week 1: Buffalo Bills (vs. ARI)
Week 2: Dallas Cowboys (vs. NO)
Week 3: Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (vs. NE)
Week 5: Chicago Bears (vs. CAR)
Week 6: Baltimore Ravens (vs. WAS)
Week 7: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NE) neutral field
Week 8: Detroit Lions (vs. TEN)
Week 9: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. LV)
Week 10: Los Angeles Chargers (vs. TEN)
Week 11: Los Angeles Rams (@ NE)
Week 12: Kansas City Chiefs (@ CAR)
Week 13: New York Jets (vs. SEA)
Week 14: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. CAR)
Week 15: Arizona Cardinals (vs. NE)
Week 16: Atlanta Falcons (vs. NYG)
Week 17: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)
Week 18: Green Bay Packers (vs. CHI)
This strategy would see you avoid picking a road team until Week 11 and steer clear of divisional matchups until Week 17. Additionally, there would be only two occasions each where you encounter picking a road team or divisional matchup.
Chalk Picks for Week 1
Another strategy folks love to use in large survivor pool leagues is picking against the “chalk” (code for choosing a significant favorite) to help maximize your chances of winning if a big upset takes place.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 1, according to Numberfire.com.
Expect many of your leaguemates to make a safer pick by selecting a team heavily favored to win Week 1. Here are the “chalk” picks that have my stamp of approval for Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. NE)
The Bengals’ 2023 campaign is something the organization wants to put in the rearview mirror. Injuries to Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins early last season saw the Bengals get off to a very slow start, which I imagine will be a huge point of emphasis this year, considering they are a member of a loaded AFC North division.
Fortunately, Cincinnati opens at home against the Jacoby Brissett-led New England Patriots — who was recently named the starting quarterback over the immensely talented Drake Maye.
Unfortunately, Cincinnati is still in a contract squabble with star WR Ja’Marr Chase, who continues to seek a big payday prior to the start of the 2024 NFL season — which is less than a week away.
Yet, even if Chase doesn’t play against New England, I believe we’ll simply see a busier day for Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, and Jermaine Burton against a defensive unit that just traded away top edge rusher Matthew Judon.
The Bengals’ defense did experience its fair share of struggles on the defensive side of the football last year — ranking 31st by giving up an average of 374.6 yards per game. However, I have my doubts about whether or not the Patriots will be able to capitalize on this potential vulnerability.
Brissett is a middling game manager, Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off the least efficient year of his career, and the collection of New England receivers (Ja’Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, and Tyquan Thorton) doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing secondaries.
Lastly, I could see Cincinnati’s pass rush (Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard, and Joseph Ossai) give New England’s retooled offensive line some issues in long third-down passing situations.
Expect Burrow and the Bengals to make a big statement at home to start the year after a disappointing 2023 campaign.
Buffalo Bills (vs. ARI)
What was the one thing we saw the Bills do much more of when Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator? The correct answer is run the football.
Who finished dead last in rushing yards allowed in 2023? The correct answer is the Arizona Cardinals.
The true mismatch in this contest exists up front between Buffalo’s offensive line and Arizona’s defensive line. I expect Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, and Spencer Brown to have plenty of success against Justin Jones, Roy Lopez, and Bilal Nichols.
Additionally, the Cardinals’ secondary is a work in progress with multiple young players expected to see significant run this year — which certainly could be exploited by star QB Josh Allen.
Lastly, Kyler Murray did get a significant upgrade at the WR1 position with Marvin Harrison Jr.’s arrival. However, Arizona’s retooled passing game is set to be tested by a quality secondary and underrated pass-rushing unit on the road to start the season.
Contrarian Pick for Week 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. WAS)
If you’re in search of a contrarian pick to start the 2024 NFL season, look no further than the Buccaneers’ matchup against a Commanders squad that features a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut and a terrible secondary.
Dan Quinn’s arrival as Washington’s new head coach marks a shift in defensive philosophy from a quarters-heavy scheme (which the Commanders called on 21.8% of plays last year) to Cover 1 (man coverage principles with a single-high safety) — which Quinn called at the third-highest rate in the league last year, 31.1%.
Why does this matter? Well, I don’t believe the collection of Benjamin St-Juste, Emmanuel Forbes Jr., Michael Davis, or rookie Mike Sainristil will have much success locking up Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, or Jalen McMillan for the entire contest. Baker Mayfield should be able to connect on some of these shots down the field against Washington when facing Cover 1.
The Bucs’ interior offensive line received a significant upgrade with Graham Barton joining. That should help Tampa Bay limit the impacts of Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen providing interior pressure in passing situations.
Additionally, with the third-highest blitz rate (40.1%) in the NFL last year, Bucs HC Todd Bowles loves to heat up opposing quarterbacks by bringing extra defenders.
I would be a bit more concerned about rookie Jayden Daniels punishing this aggressive defense if he had dynamic playmakers on the perimeter.
But outside of Terry McLaurin, who in this passing attack should scare Tampa Bay? Luke McCaffrey? Dyami Brown? Noah Brown? Zach Ertz?
Could the rookie QB have encouraging moments in Week 1? Sure, but it will likely come with some growing pains while they figure out the pass-catching pecking order behind McLaurin. That makes me confident Daniels won’t be able to keep up with the Bucs’ offense in Week 1.