Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots helped eliminate 14.8% of the remaining survivor league players by upsetting the Buffalo Bills last week, which could significantly shake up the remaining contestants in your league.
Well, if you’re here reading this NFL Survivor Picks Week 8 article, that probably means you managed to advance, so congratulations! With a full slate of games heading into the final week of football in October, it’s time to dig in and formulate our strategy with my survivor picks for Week 8.
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NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 8
Last week was our biggest challenge yet, with six teams on bye in Week 7. Survivor-league players will get a bye of their own, with all 32 teams taking the field in Week 8, which should give survivor-league enthusiasts plenty of options to advance to the month of November.
Many survivor-league players have managed to get to this point by simply picking a double-digit favorite on a weekly basis. However, some savvy survivor players have advanced to Week 8 by finding a way to go against the chalk every week, allowing them to keep a handful of top-tier teams available to select as we approach November and December.
This is evident by the seven teams who were selected by the majority of survivor-league players to start the 2023 season.
The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks have been the most popular picks through the first seven weeks of the NFL season.
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games.
- Avoid picking road teams.
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast.
As we approach the month of November, things like bad weather could start playing a much bigger role in which direction we would like to go for our weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, some of the biggest favorites over the last seven weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, Rams, and Seahawks. This means we can’t turn to the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagavailoa, Matthew Stafford, or a stacked 49ers roster when we get into a pinch later in the season.
Since these were the most selected teams each week by survivor-league players — according to survivorgrid.com data — I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation for the week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel, so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor-league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of teams)
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 7: Seattle Seahawks (Selected by 55% of teams)
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorite of the week can strongly benefit you as the season progresses.
The fact that some of the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the league are unavailable for the rest of the season will start presenting some very big challenges once we get to the back half of the season.
For now, though, we still have the Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, and Detroit Lions available, who have plenty of future value to rely on in the next month of NFL action.
Week 8: Detroit Lions (vs. LV)
Week 9: Los Angeles Chargers (@ NYJ)
Week 10: Atlanta Falcons (@ ARI)
Week 11: Dallas Cowboys (@ CAR)
Top teams still available: PHI, JAX, CLE
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (vs. CHI)
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (vs. ARI)
Week 10: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. HOU)
Week 11: Detroit Lions (vs. CHI)
Top teams still available: PHI, DAL, JAX
It’s always important to keep updating your strategy once we get new information. For example, if you like to simply trail a bad team to play against every week, I suggest pivoting to the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals.
Through the first seven weeks of the NFL season, I’ve gone 12-2 with my chalk selections, which included a 1-1 record last week with the Patriots upsetting the Bills in Week 7.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 8, according to Numberfire.com.
Let’s take a look at my favorite chalk selections heading into Week 8.
Baltimore Ravens (@ ARI)
When the Ravens play the way they did against the Lions on Sunday, they look like a legit Super Bowl contender who can beat anyone in the league on any given week.
While Baltimore does have some head-scratching losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers this season, the offense appears to be hitting its stride in this new offensive system under Todd Monken.
In Week 7, against Detroit, the Ravens found the end zone on their first four possessions. Thanks in large part to Jackson’s continued growth as a passer. His 357 passing yards and four total scores give this offense a sky-high ceiling against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8.
I could see the Cardinals’ defense having issues slowing down Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers, in particular. Even if the offense doesn’t look quite as good as they did last week against Arizona, their defense — which is ranked inside the top 10 in nearly every major category — should be enough to overwhelm whoever is under center for the Cardinals this week.
Detroit Lions (vs. LV)
Speaking of the Lions, they got truly punched in the mouth for the first time in the 2023 season in an embarrassing 38-6 loss at the hands of the aforementioned Ravens.
The offense produced a season-low six points, and the defense allowed a season-high 38 points. Translation… It was an all-around failure for head coach Dan Campbell on Sunday.
Well, the Lions will return home to Detroit to take on the Las Vegas Raiders, who just lost to a one-win Chicago Bears team that rolled out a rookie QB making his starting debut in the NFL.
Expect the Lions to bounce back in a big way against the Raiders.
Houston Texans (@ CAR)
In a showdown between the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans are the team showing signs of moving in the right direction through their first six games of the season.
C.J. Stroud is comfortably ahead of Bryce Young in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. Stroud’s nine touchdown passes to just one interception have him in the conversation as a top-15 quarterback as we near the midway point of the 2023 NFL season.
Houston should get back wide receiver Tank Dell this week, which could have this Texans offense operating at close to full strength coming out of their bye week.
To be fair, Young has started playing better since he returned to the lineup after missing the team’s Week 3 matchup against the Seahawks. However, the offense still hasn’t been getting much production from anyone not named Adam Thielen this season.