NFL MVP Odds: Can Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jackson Challenge Patrick Mahomes?

Patrick Mahomes is once again the betting favorite to win the award -- can anyone challenge him? A look at the NFL MVP odds and Mahomes' competition.

Well, it’s Groundhog Day, again. Through seven weeks of the 2023 season, Patrick Mahomes is once again sitting at the top in NFL MVP odds, as he is the sole betting favorite to win the award for the first time since Week 2.

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What Are the NFL MVP Odds?

Mahomes is currently the betting favorite to win NFL MVP, followed by Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy to round out the top five. The below NFL MVP odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

  1. Patrick Mahomes (+275)
  2. Tua Tagovailoa (+400)
  3. Jalen Hurts (+500)
  4. Lamar Jackson (+650)
  5. Brock Purdy (+1400)
  6. Josh Allen (+1500)
  7. Trevor Lawrence/Christian McCaffrey (+2000)
  8. Jared Goff (+3500)
  9. Joe Burrow/Justin Herbert (+4000)
  10. Tyreek Hill/Dak Prescott (+5000)

Will Patrick Mahomes Win NFL MVP Again?

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Mahomes is on pace to have yet another incredible season. While leading the Kansas City Chiefs to a 6-1 start, Mahomes has thrown for 2,017 passing yards and 15 TDs in seven games — on pace for 4,898 yards and 36 touchdowns.

While these stats are very impressive, to quote Michael Jordan, “The ceiling is the roof,” when it comes to expectations for Mahomes. And for his ridiculous standards, you could argue that these aren’t MVP-caliber numbers.

But this is an award typically given to the best quarterback on the best team, and at this rate, it appears Mahomes might not have as much competition as we previously expected.

“The NFL MVP, similarly to the Heisman Trophy, has somewhat morphed into a way of recognizing the quarterback of the best team in the league,” Ethan Useloff, Trader at PointsBet, told Pro Football Network.

“Taking a dive into the last 10 MVP winners, they share two traits: All were QBs on teams receiving a Wild Card Weekend bye. As it stands today, the shortlist of teams with the best chances to finish with this coveted bye include the Chiefs, Dolphins, Ravens, Jaguars, Eagles, 49ers, and Lions. The NFL MVP odds reflect this, as each starting QB on these teams currently stands in the top nine candidates.

“In short, the MVP race will be dictated by how well these top teams perform, so the most plausible way to dethrone Mahomes from reclaiming the award is to be as good as the Chiefs,” according to Useloff. “Although the counting stats can certainly impact a close race, the award has a precedent that team record is the most impactful measurement.”

Tua has looked like a serious MVP candidate at this point in the season, and so far, no player has a greater argument for challenging Mahomes. Through seven weeks, Tua is leading the NFL in passing yards, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and QB rating, all while quarterbacking the best offense in the NFL.

The argument against Tua, however, is that the Dolphins have beaten up on bad teams and fallen flat vs. playoff contenders. These stats might not be sustainable as the schedule gets more difficult.

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Before the season, Jalen Hurts was considered one of the players most capable of stealing the award away from Mahomes. He was the MVP favorite through 14 weeks last season before he had to miss two games due to injury.

Although Hurts has played very well this season, leading the Eagles to another terrific start at 6-1, he isn’t putting up MVP numbers and has already thrown more interceptions in seven games than he did in 15 last year.

Of the other NFL MVP contenders after Tua and Hurts, Lamar Jackson appears to be the most capable of dethroning Mahomes. The Ravens are currently 5-2 and look like perhaps the second-best team in the AFC behind the Chiefs.

Although their offense got off to a relatively slow start under new play-caller Todd Monken, Jackson is on pace to have career highs in passing yards, yards per attempt, and completion percentage. Currently, he’s the top-graded quarterback at Pro Football Focus for the season.

Joe Burrow and Josh Allen had the second and third-shortest NFL MVP odds behind Mahomes going into the season, but neither of them are in the conversation at the moment. Burrow, in particular, is a long shot to win the award due to his early-season struggles when he was playing through a calf injury.

Meanwhile, Allen’s odds have taken a big hit, with the Bills losing two of their three previous games.

Given that he’s the undisputed best quarterback in the NFL, Mahomes was the preseason betting favorite to win the award. Yet, he was expected to have plenty of competition, and voter fatigue was another potential factor.

At this rate, however, no QB is making a great enough case to challenge Mahomes from taking home the MVP trophy once again.

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