Now that we only have seven games left to be played in the season, NFL player prop bets are a good way to get additional action on a limited slate. With sportsbooks now having released most of their numbers, we have a better idea as to how they see this weekend playing out from an NFL betting perspective. With some clear matchups available to exploit, let’s take a look at some of the player props you should jump on this weekend.
NFL player prop bets in the 2022 Divisional Round
Looking at each game this weekend, here are the Divisional Round NFL player props that I like the most.
All odds are provided from DraftKings Sportsbook
Bengals vs. Titans prop bets
The Bengals vs. Titans game is expected to have quite a bit of offense, as the current NFL odds total is set at 47.5. With scoring expected, here are the guys I think will prosper during the Divisional Round.
Joe Burrow over 278.5 passing yards (-115)
Last week, we saw the curse of first-time playoff QBs continue as Kyler Murray and Mac Jones both struggled. However, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow bucked the trend, albeit against Derek Carr, who was also starting his first postseason game. Against the Raiders in the Wild Card round, Burrow put up 244 passing yards with 2 touchdowns.
If you look back even further and add up Burrow’s numbers from his last three games, he has 1,215 yards, 10 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He is in record-setting form. Heading into the Divisional Round, his NFL player prop for passing yards is only set at 278.5.
In his 17-game season, Burrow finished the year ranked fourth overall in passing yards per game behind only Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes with 285.59. This Titans defense has taken a step back in 2021, ranking near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed (25th).
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In what is likely to be a close game, Burrow will need to continue to rely on his arm if the Bengals want to remain competitive. We already know that the Titans are going to want to run the ball, which will probably be effective against one of the more inconsistent run defenses in the league.
Even though Cincinnati finished as a top-five run defense this season, they’ve allowed an average of 154.3 rushing yards over their last three games. This put them third-worst in the league ahead of only Jacksonville and Atlanta.
If the Titans can score, the Bengals will need to keep up. That will need to be done in the air, so expect Burrow to go over his NFL player prop of 278.5 yards.
49ers vs. Packers player prop bets
The 49ers travel to Lambeau to take on the Packers in this Divisional Round matchup. Will we see another offensive shootout, or will these two teams try to get it done on the ground?
Deebo Samuel over 4.5 receptions (-110)
When betting on such a short slate, you can either try to find obscure props on some less popular players, or you can stick with the guys we know. Deebo Samuel has been a star for the San Francisco 49ers this season. His stat line is nothing but impressive: 121 targets, 77 catches, 1,405 yards, and 6 TDs. And that’s just what he’s done through the air — he has also developed as an exciting option out of the backfield.
Last week against the Cowboys, Samuel was a real X-factor. However, he only reeled in 3 catches for 38 yards. That shouldn’t scare you away from this reception prop of 4.5. The 49ers led early against the Cowboys, so they did not need to rely on their pass attack. Instead, they methodically ran the ball and controlled the clock. This time around, I think the game script will be very different.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have put together an impressive season and finished the year 10th overall in points scored per game (26.5). Their offense is clicking behind the likely MVP. And although the 49ers’ defense is one of the better units in the league, Rodgers at home in Lambeau is just on another level.
I expect Green Bay to be up early in this one, and San Francisco is going to need to throw the ball to keep up. If that is the case, Jimmy Garoppolo is going to want to go to his favorite weapon in Samuel. I also think that Samuel as an anytime TD scorer at -105 makes a lot of sense. The Packers have allowed 31 passing TDs this season, which is near the bottom of the league. Samuel is also targeted 14.3% of the time when the 49ers are in the red zone.
Rams vs. Buccaneers prop bets
The Rams vs. Buccaneers game has the second-highest total on the board at 48 points. Both of these teams put up over 30 points in the Wild Card round. Can we expect more of the same this week?
Matthew Stafford over 400 yards passing + Cooper Kupp over 100 yards receiving (+1100)
When looking at this game, I have a hard time seeing why we won’t easily surpass the total of 48. And, despite popular belief, I think more of the points will come from the Los Angeles Rams.
Matthew Stafford finally shook off his playoff issues and looked to be in excellent form last week against the Cardinals. Although he only put up 202 passing yards, the team didn’t need all that much else from him in what became an early blowout.
This is a correlated NFL player prop between Stafford and his go-to target Cooper Kupp. The two have developed impressive chemistry throughout the year, which put Kupp on a near record-setting pace. He finished the season with 1,947 receiving yards (114.5 per game) and was targeted a whopping 191 times.
The Buccaneers have the NFL’s 22nd-ranked pass defense this season; they’ve allowed 255.7 yards per game through the air. However, they are very good at defending the run (third-best in the NFL). So if Stafford and the Rams want to remain competitive, it will need to be in the air. We already know how much the Buccaneers love to throw the ball (they led the league in passing plays), so I expect the Rams to do the same.
Some might argue that Stafford hasn’t thrown for more than 400 yards all season. This is true, but one of the two times he came close was back in Week 3 of the season, against these same Buccaneers when he threw for 343 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Listen, the +1100 odds are large for a reason. But I can foresee this prop bet hitting in one of two ways. First, the Rams go down big and Stafford racks up the garbage time yards. Second, this is a highly competitive game, and the Rams throw often to take advantage of a bad pass defense. Either way, I think Stafford and Kupp have huge games.
Bills vs. Chiefs player props
In what is being considered the jewel in the Divisional Round’s crown, the Bills vs. Chiefs game should not be short on fireworks.
Josh Allen under 50.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Bills and Chiefs finished third and fourth in points scored per game this season (29.4 and 29, respectively). Their offenses were both in excellent shape last week, as they put up over 30 points each. Buffalo, specifically, put up the first perfect game in NFL history by scoring a touchdown on all seven of their drives.
With two offenses currently clicking, I feel like this game is going to be played in the air. However, instead of taking the passing NFL player props, I am going to look to Josh Allen and his legs. Allen is currently averaging 44.9 rushing yards per game but has gone over the total of 50.5 in four of his last five games. But in this game, I am looking to the under.
Even though Allen will go up against a Chiefs team that allowed an average of 117.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season, I am unphased by that number. If you look at last week, the Chiefs only allowed the Steelers — one of the best rushing teams in the league — to run for a total of 55 yards between their three backs. If the Chiefs want to win this one, they will need to contain Allen and keep him in the pocket.
I think Allen might rip off one or two big runs that will get him close to this number, but ultimately, I believe he falls just short.