The Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off in one of the most highly anticipated rematches of the season. Los Angeles defeated Tampa Bay 34-24 in September, although the game took place in California rather than Florida. Both teams are coming off massive wins in the first round of the NFL playoffs. In this article, you’ll find the NFL odds along with my pick and Rams vs. Buccaneers prediction.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick, prediction | Divisional Round
- Spread: Buccaneers -3 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Rams +130, Buccaneers -150
- Over/Under: 48.5
Tampa Bay’s home success
Similar to the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay is one of the best teams in the NFL at home. They boast some of the largest splits in the league, and having home-field advantage against one of the best teams in the NFC will go a long way in their success.
The Bucs are averaging 33 points per game at home, which ranks second in the NFL. They’re averaging roughly 6 more points per game at home this season. They’re also averaging .477 points per play at home compared to .417 on the road.
Tampa Bay is allowing over a touchdown less per game at home compared to on the road. Furthermore, the Bucs are allowing a league-low .26 points per play at home. They’re giving up .379 points per play on the road in 2021.
Ultimately, the Bucs boast a league-high +16.1 average margin of victory in Tampa Bay. This is nearly 13 points higher than on the road.
Rams vs. Buccaneers betting trends
Los Angeles has seen mixed results against the spread (ATS) this season. They own a 9-9 ATS record, covering the spread by an average of 0.3 points per game. The Rams have found more success recently, covering in five of their last seven games.
Tampa Bay has been a little better, posting a 10-8 ATS record in 2021. They’re covering by an average of 0.9 points per game, although they’ve covered in 77.8% of their home matchups. The Bucs have covered in seven of their last nine contests as well.
The Rams lean toward the over in their games, as they’ve hit it in 52.9% of their contests this year.
The Bucs have been neutral, recording a 9-9 over/under record thus far. Tampa Bay does lean slightly toward the over at home, though.
Rams vs. Buccaneers prediction
This is arguably the most difficult game in the Divisional Round to predict. They’ve already played with Los Angeles emerging victorious, but the location of this game plays a major factor.
It’s impossible to overstate the importance of Tampa Bay playing at home. They’ve consistently found success at Raymond James Stadium, as they own a 7-1 home record this season.
The Rams possess the offense to stick with Tampa Bay, and their defense can at least slow down an injured Bucs offense. They’re live dogs in this one, although it’s nearly impossible to bet against Tom Brady at this point.
I’m slightly leaning toward the favorites, although I’d prefer the points with the underdog.
Rams vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Rams 27