Midweek Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds: Rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game

Can Buffalo beat Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium again? Here are the odds and our prediction for Sunday's Bills vs. Chiefs matchup.

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. It’s a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, and exactly 364 days later, the Bills have another shot at KC in their own backyard. Will the outcome be different this time around? Let’s take a look at the matchup, the latest NFL odds, and make a pick and prediction.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs pick, prediction | Divisional Round

  • Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -135, Bills +115
  • Over/Under: 54

Chiefs play host to revenge-seeking Bills

Pittsburgh was no match for Kansas City in the Wild Card round. Now, the Chiefs will host Buffalo for the second time this season. Buffalo waltzed into Arrowhead in Week 5 and dominated the Chiefs, getting their revenge for their playoff loss in January 2021. But that was regular-season revenge. They will want playoff revenge even more.

The Chiefs have had a somewhat turbulent season, and they didn’t look like themselves early on. But if we’ve learned anything in recent years, it’s to not write off the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid-led Chiefs. Kansas City pulled themselves together and have won 10 of their last 11 games, with the only loss coming against the Bengals.

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The Chiefs are going into this game having scored an average of 36.5 points in their last six outings. We all know if the Chiefs are rolling on offense, they can be dangerous.

The problem the Bills will face this time around is a far improved Chiefs defense. At times this season, it’s been Steve Spagnuolo’s unit that’s held this team together. The powerful Chiefs offense, paired with a strong defense, makes KC a team you don’t want to play against. The Chiefs finished eighth in points allowed per game on defense this season.

Can the Bills do it twice in Arrowhead Stadium?

Buffalo will be riding the confidence of their regular-season win in Arrowhead all the way into the Divisional Round this weekend. Josh Allen was elite in that game — he threw for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns, adding 59 yards rushing and 1 more touchdown on the ground. The Chiefs had no answer for him, and he’ll want to emulate that performance in the playoffs to give his team the best chance at a win.

However, the Bills are another team that is just as strong defensively as they are on offense. Can they cause more problems for Mahomes after a stretch of impressive performances this season? Buffalo dominated the New England Patriots twice and held them to only 14 points in their third matchup. They’re no slouch against top AFC opposition.

But can Buffalo’s defensive front get to Mahomes enough to throw him off his passing game? Mario Addison leads the Bills in sacks (7), while Ed Oliver and rookie Greg Rousseau have had solid seasons, too. That unit will need to be in top form and affect the game if the Bills want to win this one.

Buffalo’s secondary is built around its safety tandem. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer comprise one of the best duos in the league on the back end. They have 11 interceptions and 8 pass breakups between them, and both are in the top five on the team in tackles. Either one of them is capable of making a game-changing play at any time.

Bills vs. Chiefs betting trends

The Chiefs have won seven of their last nine against the spread, dropping only their Week 17 contest to the Bengals and their Week 18 game against Denver. They beat Denver but failed to cover the 11-point spread. Kansas City has also covered six overs in a row, largely because of their high-scoring offense.

The Bills have covered in four of their last five, and the fifth one resulted in a push (they beat Atlanta by 14 against a 14-point spread). Buffalo is scoring at a high rate themselves, including the 47-point onslaught vs. the Patriots last weekend. They’ve cashed four overs in their last six games.

Bills vs. Chiefs prediction

I like the Bills. I think they’re one of, if not the most complete team in the league when you consider performance on both sides of the ball. The outcome of the game will rely heavily on whether Buffalo’s defensive line can win in the pass-rush game. If they can pressure Mahomes, collapse the pocket, and force mistakes, the Bills could take this one.

I’m anticipating a high-scoring game in the freezing cold atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium. This game sits on a knife’s edge and will likely come down to one mistake from either quarterback. I’ll take Buffalo and the over.

Bills vs. Chiefs Score Prediction: Bills 31, Chiefs 30

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