The San Francisco 49ers will travel for a matchup against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. San Francisco is coming off a last-second win against the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay received a first-round bye and rested their injured players for another week. Below, you’ll find the latest NFL odds, plus my pick and prediction for the 49ers vs. Packers this weekend.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers pick, prediction | Divisional Round
- Spread: Packers -6 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: 49ers +215, Packers -265
- Over/Under: 47
Green Bay was playing for the top overall seed in the NFC for several reasons. Pride, an extra week to heal key injuries, and home-field advantage. Although the majority of the teams in the NFL benefit when playing at home, Green Bay’s advantage is significantly greater than most clubs.
The Packers rank fifth in the NFL in points per game at home, and they’re scoring nearly 8 more points per game in Green Bay than on the road. They also rank fourth in the league in points per play at home, which is nearly 0.1 more than on the road.
Green Bay may benefit more defensively than offensively at home. They’re allowing the second-fewest points per game at home, and the number sits nearly 10 points below what they allow on the road. Furthermore, the Packers are allowing only 0.279 points per play at home compared to 0.425 on the road.
Overall, Green Bay owns a perfect 8-0 record with a +13.9 average scoring margin in Wisconsin this season. The first-round bye was great for the Packers, but playing at home will likely be their biggest key to success in the postseason.
49ers vs. Packers betting trends
Both of these teams have found success against the spread (ATS) this year. San Francisco enters this game with a 10-8 ATS record through 18 games. They’re only covering by an average of 0.7 points per game, though. They’ve also covered in 60% of their road contests in 2021.
Green Bay’s been one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread. They boast a 12-5 ATS record, covering by an average of 0.6 points per game.
It’s important to note they lost against the Lions with their backups for the second half, lowering their ATS success. The Packers covered in 87.5% of their home matchups, and they’re covering by an average of 6.4 points per game in those contests.
Both of these teams lean toward the under in their games. San Francisco’s hit it in 55.6% of theirs, while Green Bay’s found the under in 52.9% of their contests.
49ers vs. Packers prediction
The 49ers are one of the hottest underdogs in the NFL, as they were consistently picked to upset Dallas last week.
This game will come down to San Francisco’s ability to keep the game close. If they’re playing from behind, they’ll be forced to throw, and Jimmy Garoppolo has consistently made mistakes near the end of the season.
Green Bay has the offense to capitalize on those mistakes, as long as they can slow down San Francisco’s rushing attack. I don’t believe the 49ers can keep up with Aaron Rodgers and Co., and any mistakes will prove to be entirely too costly in a setting like Green Bay.
49ers vs. Packers Prediction: Packers 28, 49ers 21