NFL FPM

PFSN's NFL Football Playoff Meter (FPM) simulates the remaining NFL schedule 100,000 times in order to calculate the outcome of every team in the 2025-26 season. The NFL FPM uses our proprietary metrics to rank every team, which is then used to fuel our simulation engine.

Our FPM produces data points on the expected number of wins for each team, their chances of winning their division, making the playoffs, and their percentage chance of getting each of the seven playoff seeds. Additionally, our FPM looks at the other end of the table to give percentage chances of teams getting the top pick, a top two pick, a top three pick, a top five pick, or a top 10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.


Select
Team Name
Conference
Division
Record
Current Win%
Avg Proj Wins
Division Win%
Make Playoff%
#1 Seed%
#2 Seed%
#3 Seed%
#4 Seed%
#5 Seed%
#6 Seed%
#7 Seed%
Make Div Round%
Make Conf Champ%
Make Super Bowl%
Win Super Bowl%
NFCNFC South7-558.3% (13)9.7 (14)64.5% (4)66.3% (12)0.6% (14)3.4% (12)13.3% (6)47.2% (2)0.0% (17)0.3% (18)1.4% (17)27.6% (14)11.4% (14)4.6% (14)1.9% (15)
AFCAFC South8-466.7% (8)10.7 (10)40.9% (9)80.1% (11)2.8% (11)9.8% (6)27.0% (2)1.4% (9)10.4% (7)15.3% (6)13.5% (9)45.1% (10)24.5% (7)13.1% (6)6.9% (6)
AFCAFC North6-650.0% (18)8.5 (19)51.5% (5)51.7% (15)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)2.3% (16)49.2% (1)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.2% (21)22.1% (15)9.1% (15)3.7% (16)1.5% (16)
AFCAFC East8-466.7% (8)11.0 (6)11.6% (17)86.2% (8)3.1% (9)5.7% (11)2.7% (14)0.0% (20)36.2% (1)23.3% (2)15.2% (7)47.8% (8)25.0% (6)12.8% (7)6.4% (7)
NFCNFC North8-3-170.8% (6)10.8 (8)45.1% (8)83.8% (9)9.6% (7)18.6% (5)14.6% (5)2.3% (8)6.6% (11)13.7% (10)18.3% (3)50.4% (5)26.1% (5)13.9% (5)7.4% (5)
NFCNFC North7-558.3% (13)9.7 (14)6.0% (20)35.0% (18)0.7% (13)2.7% (14)2.4% (15)0.2% (14)4.2% (13)9.2% (11)15.7% (6)18.0% (17)8.6% (16)4.1% (15)2.0% (14)
NFCNFC West9-375.0% (3)11.9 (4)35.3% (11)93.4% (4)24.3% (4)8.5% (9)2.3% (16)0.2% (14)27.7% (2)19.1% (3)11.3% (11)64.6% (4)36.6% (4)20.0% (3)11.0% (3)
NFCNFC West9-375.0% (3)12.1 (3)45.2% (7)94.6% (3)32.2% (3)9.6% (7)3.4% (13)0.1% (18)27.2% (3)14.1% (9)8.1% (12)69.2% (3)39.8% (1)22.5% (1)12.5% (1)
AFCAFC West10-283.3% (2)12.9 (2)89.3% (1)99.2% (2)33.2% (2)43.2% (1)12.7% (7)0.2% (14)4.6% (12)3.4% (13)1.9% (16)70.2% (2)38.8% (2)21.4% (2)11.3% (2)
AFCAFC East11-284.6% (1)13.3 (1)88.4% (2)100.0% (1)56.3% (1)26.4% (3)5.7% (9)0.0% (20)8.9% (9)2.1% (14)0.5% (19)78.8% (1)38.0% (3)18.8% (4)9.0% (4)
NFCNFC East8-466.7% (8)10.8 (8)85.4% (3)90.1% (6)6.8% (8)20.0% (4)43.2% (1)15.4% (5)0.3% (15)1.3% (16)3.1% (14)47.5% (9)23.1% (8)10.9% (8)5.2% (8)
AFCAFC West6-650.0% (18)8.9 (16)0.7% (21)21.5% (19)0.0% (16)0.2% (17)0.5% (20)0.0% (20)1.6% (14)5.6% (12)13.5% (9)10.4% (19)5.1% (19)2.7% (18)1.3% (18)
AFCAFC South8-466.7% (8)10.6 (11)34.8% (13)82.1% (10)3.0% (10)9.3% (8)21.4% (4)1.1% (10)12.0% (6)17.5% (4)17.8% (4)40.6% (11)19.6% (11)9.2% (11)4.3% (11)
AFCAFC West8-466.7% (8)10.2 (12)10.0% (18)65.0% (13)1.3% (12)3.4% (12)5.3% (10)0.0% (20)16.9% (5)17.0% (5)21.1% (1)29.6% (13)13.1% (13)5.7% (13)2.4% (13)
NFCNFC West9-469.2% (7)11.0 (6)19.5% (15)90.4% (5)11.5% (6)6.1% (10)1.7% (18)0.3% (13)26.5% (4)25.8% (1)18.6% (2)49.7% (6)22.6% (9)9.9% (10)4.6% (9)
NFCNFC South4-833.3% (22)6.3 (23)0.3% (22)0.3% (23)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.2% (14)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.1% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
NFCNFC North4-833.3% (22)6.3 (23)0.0% (24)0.2% (24)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.2% (21)0.1% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
NFCNFC East3-925.0% (25)5.3 (25)0.1% (23)0.1% (25)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.1% (18)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.0% (25)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
NFCNFC North9-375.0% (3)11.5 (5)48.9% (6)86.5% (7)14.3% (5)29.8% (2)4.2% (12)0.6% (11)7.2% (10)14.5% (8)15.8% (5)48.7% (7)21.6% (10)10.0% (9)4.6% (9)
AFCAFC South7-558.3% (13)9.9 (13)24.3% (14)64.1% (14)0.3% (15)1.9% (15)21.5% (3)0.6% (11)9.3% (8)15.3% (6)15.1% (8)33.1% (12)17.4% (12)8.7% (12)4.3% (11)
NFCNFC South7-653.8% (17)8.8 (17)35.2% (12)38.0% (17)0.0% (16)1.1% (16)9.9% (8)24.2% (4)0.0% (17)0.5% (17)2.3% (15)14.5% (18)5.5% (18)2.1% (19)0.8% (20)
NFCNFC West3-925.0% (25)4.9 (28)0.0% (24)0.0% (26)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.0% (25)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
NFCNFC East6-5-154.2% (16)8.7 (18)14.5% (16)21.4% (20)0.0% (16)0.2% (17)5.0% (11)9.3% (6)0.3% (15)1.5% (15)5.1% (13)9.7% (20)4.5% (20)2.0% (20)0.9% (19)
AFCAFC North4-833.3% (22)6.6 (22)7.7% (19)7.9% (21)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)7.7% (7)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.2% (21)3.6% (21)1.5% (21)0.7% (21)0.3% (21)
NFCNFC East2-1115.4% (31)3.8 (30)0.0% (24)0.0% (26)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.0% (25)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
AFCAFC West2-1016.7% (29)3.8 (30)0.0% (24)0.0% (26)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.0% (25)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
AFCAFC North6-650.0% (18)8.3 (20)40.7% (10)41.1% (16)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)1.1% (19)39.6% (3)0.0% (17)0.1% (20)0.3% (20)18.2% (16)7.6% (17)3.2% (17)1.4% (17)
AFCAFC East5-741.7% (21)7.3 (21)0.0% (24)1.1% (22)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.3% (18)0.8% (18)0.4% (22)0.1% (22)0.1% (22)0.0% (22)
NFCNFC South2-1016.7% (29)4.3 (29)0.0% (24)0.0% (26)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.0% (25)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
AFCAFC North3-925.0% (25)5.1 (26)0.0% (24)0.0% (26)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.0% (25)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
AFCAFC South1-118.3% (32)3.0 (32)0.0% (24)0.0% (26)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.0% (25)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
AFCAFC East3-925.0% (25)5.1 (26)0.0% (24)0.0% (26)0.0% (16)0.0% (19)0.0% (21)0.0% (20)0.0% (17)0.0% (21)0.0% (24)0.0% (25)0.0% (23)0.0% (23)0.0% (22)
Last updated: 12/5/2025, 3:56 AM