NFL FPM

PFSN's NFL Football Playoff Meter (FPM) simulates the remaining NFL schedule 100,000 times in order to calculate the outcome of every team in the 2025-26 season. The NFL FPM uses our proprietary metrics to rank every team, which is then used to fuel our simulation engine.

Our FPM produces data points on the expected number of wins for each team, their chances of winning their division, making the playoffs, and their percentage chance of getting each of the seven playoff seeds. Additionally, our FPM looks at the other end of the table to give percentage chances of teams getting the top pick, a top two pick, a top three pick, a top five pick, or a top 10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.


Select
Team Name
Conference
Division
Record
Current Win%
Avg Proj Wins
Division Win%
Make Playoff%
#1 Seed%
#2 Seed%
#3 Seed%
#4 Seed%
#5 Seed%
#6 Seed%
#7 Seed%
Make Div Round%
Make Conf Champ%
Make Super Bowl%
Win Super Bowl%
NFCNFC South8-947.1% (16)8.0 (17)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC South8-947.1% (16)8.0 (17)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC North10-758.8% (12)9.5 (12)52.8% (8)52.8% (14)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)52.8% (2)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC East12-570.6% (5)12.0 (5)0.0% (10)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC North9-7-155.9% (13)9.0 (13)0.0% (10)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC North9-852.9% (14)9.0 (13)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC West14-382.3% (1)14.0 (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)
NFCNFC West12-570.6% (5)12.0 (5)0.0% (10)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC West14-382.3% (1)14.0 (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC East14-382.3% (1)14.0 (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)
NFCNFC East11-664.7% (9)11.0 (9)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC West6-1135.3% (23)6.0 (23)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC South13-476.5% (4)13.0 (4)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC West11-664.7% (9)11.0 (9)0.0% (10)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC West12-570.6% (5)12.0 (5)0.0% (10)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC South8-947.1% (16)8.0 (17)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC North9-852.9% (14)9.0 (13)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC East5-1229.4% (26)5.0 (26)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC North11-664.7% (9)11.0 (9)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC South12-570.6% (5)12.0 (5)0.0% (10)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC South8-947.1% (16)8.0 (17)100.0% (1)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)100.0% (1)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC West3-1417.6% (29)3.0 (29)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC East7-9-144.1% (21)7.0 (21)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC North6-1135.3% (23)6.0 (23)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC East4-1323.5% (28)4.0 (28)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC West3-1417.6% (29)3.0 (29)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC North8-947.1% (16)8.5 (16)47.2% (9)47.2% (15)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)47.2% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC East7-1041.2% (22)7.0 (21)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
NFCNFC South6-1135.3% (23)6.0 (23)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC North5-1229.4% (26)5.0 (26)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC South3-1417.6% (29)3.0 (29)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
AFCAFC East3-1417.6% (29)3.0 (29)0.0% (10)0.0% (16)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (4)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (3)0.0% (13)0.0% (9)0.0% (5)0.0% (3)
Last updated: 2/5/2026, 10:45 PM