The NFC West was the tightest division race for nearly the entire 2024 NFL season. As of last week, all four teams were still mathematically alive for the division crown.
However, entering Week 17, we started to gain some clarity on the NFC West. The Los Angeles Rams sat in the driver’s seat over the Seattle Seahawks, while the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers were eliminated from playoff contention.
And because the Rams defeated the Cardinals, and because they got some help from at least four other teams, they are the NFC West Champions and have eliminated the Seattle Seahawks from playoff contention.
Current NFC West Standings
Here are the NFC West standings following Saturday’s games in Week 17:
- Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
- Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
- Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
The Rams won the first head-to-head matchup vs. the Seahawks in Week 9 at Seattle, though the teams have a rematch in Week 18.
Even if Seattle wins that matchup, the Seahawks weren’t particularly likely to win the head-to-head tiebreaker (which will be explained below).
While Seattle defeated the Chicago Bears on Thursday, the Rams’ victory over the Cardinals in Week 17 spelled trouble for the Seahawks.
How Did the Rams Clinch the NFC West in Week 17?
This was the only clinching scenario that remained a possibility for the Rams this week:
- LAR win + at least 3.5 wins from WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, and CLE
Here are the results of these games:
- Buffalo defeated the New York Jets, 40-14
- Cincinnati defeated Denver, 30-24
Miami defeated Cleveland, 20-3.- Minnesota defeated Green Bay, 27-25
- Washington defeated Atlanta, 30-24
Detroit defeated San Francisco, 40-34
This is more complicated than a typical clinching scenario, but it relates to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. In the event that the Seahawks and Rams both finish 10-7 (with Seattle beating Los Angeles in Week 18), they’ll be tied on each of the first four tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head: Split 1-1
- Division Record: 4-2 each
- Common Games: 8-6 each
- Conference Record: 6-6 each
If that occurs, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, in which the Rams had a significant edge in that category. Entering this week’s slate of games, the teams that Los Angeles had defeated combined for 60 wins, compared to 51 combined wins for Seattle’s defeated opponents.
Thus, since that group of six teams combined for at least 3.5 wins in Week 17, the Rams are guaranteed to finish with a higher strength of victory regardless of what happens in Week 18.
The Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills and swept the 49ers (the Seahawks lost to both Minnesota and Buffalo and went 1-1 vs. San Francisco). Therefore, those three teams winning helps the Rams’ strength of victory.
The Washington Commanders (vs. Atlanta Falcons), Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Denver Broncos), and Cleveland Browns (vs. Miami Dolphins) all faced teams that the Seahawks beat, but the Rams either lost to or didn’t face. So, those three teams winning hurt the Seahawks’ strength of victory.
Since at least four of those six teams won, the Rams clinched strength of victory.
Even if Los Angeles didn’t clinch strength of victory this week, they would have had another week to gain those 3.5 wins. So the Rams would have almost certainly clinched the tiebreaker in Week 18 if it didn’t this week.
What Did the Los Angeles Rams Need To Win the NFC West?
The Rams were able to clinch the NFC West in Week 17, as outlined above.
Realistically, though, the Week 18 game would have been the only one that really mattered for the Rams. Los Angeles was guaranteed to win the division with a home win over Seattle, no matter what happened in Week 17.
What Did the Seattle Seahawks Need To Win the NFC West?
The Seahawks’ simplest scenario was to finish 2-0, while the Rams finished 0-2, giving Seattle the outright better record. However, with the Rams’ victory over the Cardinals in Week 17, the Seahawks were in trouble. Their only chance after that was to overcome the nine-win deficit in strength of victory — which, as expected — they could not do.
It’s worth noting that Seattle had to win the NFC West to make the playoffs — they did not have a chance to earn an NFC Wild Card spot.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.
