Amongst a star-studded 2020 rookie class, Baltimore Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins might end up being the most talented running back of them all. In a perfect situation to succeed on arguably the best rushing offense in the NFL, does Dobbins have the fantasy football outlook to warrant his ADP? Should fantasy managers potentially look for other options in the third round?
Update 8/29/21: During the first drive of the Ravens’ last game of the preseason, Dobbins was tackled after catching a screen pass from Lamar Jackson. He injured his left knee and needed to be carted off. A report from Adam Schefter on Sunday confirmed that Dobbins suffered a season-ending ACL tear.
Uh oh! JK Dobbins down and at first sight it appears to be serious 😳 pic.twitter.com/9Xe3xy4GSX
— JTMoney27 (@jt_money27) August 28, 2021
J.K. Dobbins’ fantasy outlook for 2021
If I am honest, I am conflicted when it comes to Dobbins for 2021. He is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL entering his second year. And while he is on arguably the best rushing team, I still feel there are questions.
It’s hard to take anything out of the first part of the 2020 season when he was in a timeshare with Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. Thus, let’s focus on the latter half of the season.
Following Baltimore’s bye, Dobbins led the Ravens’ backfield in snaps (48%) while averaging 12.8 touches, 77.4 total yards, and .77 touchdowns per game. This includes a missed game due to NFL protocols. In that span, Dobbins totaled 109 carries for 651 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Averaging 13.6 ppg, Dobbins was the RB11 in fantasy with a hyper-efficient 6 yards per carry and 1.03 points per opportunity. After he came back in Week 13, Dobbins was the RB6 in 0.5 PPR.
What are Dobbins’ downsides entering 2021?
Here is the issue. Dobbins only averaged 12.4 carries per game over those last five games. And yet, he still rushed for 6.9 yards per carry and scored a touchdown in every game (6 total). In these games, he was the RB16, RB16, RB18, RB19, and RB3. Sure he “ended” as the RB6, but that’s not what he was for your team.
The other strike on his fantasy outlook is that Dobbins was on a 16-game pace for just 17 targets since the bye week. It’s not like if Lamar Jackson is under pressure, he will dump it off when he can simply take off himself.
When I examine Dobbins at his current ADP, I see a player who may not see an increased volume next season. Furthermore, he was unsustainably efficient per touch with yards and touchdowns. It doesn’t help that he is not heavily involved in the passing game. There are just so many red flags.
Fantasy projection
I get that this might have come off a bit harsh, but I will not love every player that you might. This is only the opinion of a single dude; no matter how well-formed and researched I feel I might be on a subject.
There has been a lot of talk that the absence of Ingram will lead to a massive surge in touches for Dobbins. I’m not so sure, as we essentially already saw the same offense last season. After all, it took Ingram being hurt and then inactive for Dobbins to make that leap in touches.
The increase in touches will be from having the role of an RB1 for the whole season rather than a substantial per-game leap. I believe Dobbins will see a slight per game jump into the 14 to 15 carry range, translating to around 215 to 220 total carries.
It’s also important to remember the Ravens love Edwards way more than you might think. After all, they just extended him to the tune of a two-year, $10 million deal. He is going to receive his fair share of touches.
The concern for fantasy will be the passing work. While the Ravens have said they want to get Dobbins more involved, what does that really mean? It’s far more efficient for Jackson just to cut and run. Plus, we can already pencil in the Ravens’ RBs to see 62 targets, as that’s been the exact number for the past two seasons. Those will be split between Dobbins, Edwards, and Justice Hill.
Overall, a realistic projection for Dobbins is 220 carries for 1,050 yards and 9 touchdowns with 30 targets, 24 receptions, 175 yards, and another score.
J.K. Dobbins’ fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Dobbins currently has an ADP of 25.3 in half PPR formats. In superflex leagues, given the priority afforded to quarterbacks, he falls to 35.4. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Dobbins has an ADP of 28.15.
Should you draft Dobbins in 2021?
I don’t hate players. I hate ADPs. While I would never completely write off Dobbins in fantasy, I’m not targeting him at his current ADP based on his fantasy outlook in my projections. Suppose he falls a round or so later, then of course. But it’s unlikely that happens as many people love Dobbins in 2021.
I really thought I would be high on Dobbins in 2021 based on how his season ended. Yet, as the offseason went on and going through my process, I have soured a bit on him.
I would rather have Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who are all going after him in ADP.