The San Francisco 49ers represent one of the most intriguing teams from a narrative standpoint in 2022, but the team could also be one rich in fantasy football upside. One such name that has been debated as roster-worthy is running back Jeff Wilson Jr. The veteran’s increased role has him in waiver wire consideration as San Francisco looks to take on the Chicago Bears to open the season.
What is Wilson’s projected Week 1 role, and is he worth adding off your waiver wire?
Should Jeff Wilson Jr. be on the shortlist of Week 1 waiver wire targets?
While all eyes will be on the performance of Trey Lance this week, the 49ers’ ever-present rushing game will be critical to the team’s success and could take some of the weight off of the second-year QB’s shoulders. While Elijah Mitchell is the top option, head coach Kyle Shanahan will rely on the team’s depth too.
As of now, Wilson is the projected No. 2 back behind Mitchell on the team’s depth chart. Wilson, who is in his fifth season with the team, finished with 294 rushing yards on 79 carries and two touchdowns through nine games last season. Working in Wilson’s favor is that he is fully healthy and now further removed from the meniscus injury that hindered him following an eight-game absence to start the 2021 season.
When Wilson is healthy, he is one of the best running backs on the 49ers roster, especially in short-yardage situations. In 2020, Wilson led the team with seven rushing touchdowns while also registering a team-high 25 red-zone carries. Despite missing half the season in 2021, Wilson ranked second among 49ers rushers in red-zone carries (9).
The explosiveness and power are back in Wilson’s legs, and it appears that he will be receiving a more significant workload in 2022. What that means is hard to pin down, as Shanahan-led offenses have been notoriously hard to predict when it comes to who will receive a significant number of carries.
How will Kyle Shanahan rotate his running backs?
Playing in 11 games in 2021, Mitchell rushed 207 times for 963 yards (4.7 ypc) and five touchdowns. Of those 963 yards, 765 came after contact, as Mitchell’s blend of power, speed, and elusiveness allowed him to sustain longer runs. He ended the season as the No. 26 ranked RB in PPR scoring while averaging 13.8 PPR points per game. In 11 of his 14 games in 2021 (including the playoffs), Mitchell recorded 17 or more rushes per contest. He crossed the 20-carry barrier six times.
Given Mitchell’s struggle to stay healthy last season, depth will be crucial at the running back position, and Shanahan has indicated as much this offseason. The team felt good enough about their depth to cut Trey Sermon, a third-round pick in 2021, and JaMycal Hasty. These moves left Mitchell, Wilson, rookie third-round pick Tyrion Davis-Price, and rookie undrafted free agent Jordan Mason on the depth chart, respectively.
Davis-Price and Mason had up-and-down preseasons. The two rookies, who combined for a total of 98 yards against the Minnesota Vikings, saw a drastic drop in production against the Houston Texans with Wilson out of the game. Davis-Price struggled, recording four carries for a net loss of three yards, while Mason managed seven yards on his four attempts. Neither has been able to unseat Wilson from his standing on the depth chart.
Will a change at QB impact the ceiling of the 49ers running backs?
Lance’s rushing ability needs to be factored into projections for the 49ers running backs. In his two starts last season, Lance had 24 rushes compared to 32 for the running backs. That’s something you never saw with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
Lance’s ability to take off with the rock can be a positive when it comes to RB production, as the additional threat of zone reads freezes up linebackers and widens running lanes. But the question remains — will those lanes be used by Lance or by Mitchell, Wilson, Davis-Price, and Mason?
A soft Week 1 matchup against the Chicago Bears could be used as a tune-up game for Lance, a 49ers offensive line that struggled mightily in the preseason, and the running game as a whole. While I like Mitchell as an RB2 this week, it’s harder for me to trust Wilson as anything more than an RB4/5.
Right now, with virtually everyone healthy, Wilson shouldn’t be seeing starting snaps. You can only really justify starting him in very deep fantasy football leagues.
While I can make a case for picking up Wilson off the waiver wire in Week 1, especially for insurance purposes if you roster Mitchell, the former shouldn’t be a top priority. With that said, if Mitchell misses time, Wilson will see a significant bump in fantasy value and could reach Flex territory, assuming a favorable matchup.