The NFL landscape is shifting fast, and that means fantasy football managers have decisions to make. Some wideouts are heating up just as others cool off, and a few teams are quietly reshaping how they spread the ball.

With bye weeks and unpredictable offenses complicating things, depth charts and usage trends are becoming crucial to monitor. There’s opportunity here for savvy managers willing to adjust before Sunday hits.

A.J. Brown | PHI

The Eagles are leaning into A.J. Brown’s physical profile, and while the lack of volume is a pain, at least he’s getting targets that let him produce top-10 numbers at the position.

Weeks 1-2: 7.2 aDOT, 11.1% deep target rate
Weeks 3-7: 13.2 aDOT, 26.2% deep target rate

Those bombs aren’t always going to connect the way they did in Minnesota over the weekend, but I’m more comfortable betting on this profile than what we saw to open the season.

The most encouraging part of Week 7 wasn’t the final stat line; it was the first touchdown. With Jalen Hurts on the move, Brown released downfield, and the pass was delivered on time and on the money.

That level of non-verbal communication makes for an almost impossible tandem to defend, one that can go on a serious run. There’s meat left on this bone (four straight games without an end zone target), and with him having earned a 28.3% target share two weeks ago against these Giants, I’m confident we get a second straight top 10 performance.

Brandon Aiyuk | SF

The 49ers were hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023, but that now sounds like a pipe dream with his status being labeled as “not close” at the beginning of the month.

By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.

In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.

I’m making a mental note of who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up. We are nearing the point in the process where a low-ball offer could be mutually beneficial, so keep your head on a swivel!

Calvin Ridley | TEN

Calvin Ridley left Week 6 in the first half with a hamstring injury and was unable to trend toward playing last week against the Patriots.

Does the veteran extend himself to get on the field for a team headed toward an early pick?

It’s hard to feel good about this situation. Ward does seem to be improving weekly, even if marginally, but with a sub-50% catch rate and zero touchdowns, the risk of reinjury isn’t worth it until we know that Ridley is fully healthy.

He’s rosterable if for no other reason than Tennessee’s mission is to develop a player they hope to be their franchise QB. That said, he’s not sniffing your lineup this week and probably not any time soon.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL

There’s nothing like scoring from 74 yards out to appease your fantasy managers after missing nearly a month.

Dallas scored 44 points on Sunday, and while that’s difficult to project as a weekly occurrence, especially in this matchup, Lamb is locked in as the piece of the puzzle that is regression-proof.

5 catches for 110 yards and a TD
9 catches for 112 yards
7 catches for 110 yards
7 catches for 105 yards
9 catches for 116 yards and a TD
6 catches for 93 yards and a TD

If I told you that those were the best stat lines for a receiver of a two-season stretch, you’d take it and be thrilled.

Those are Lamb’s last six games if you remove the contest in which he was injured.

The matchup with Patrick Surtain isn’t ideal, but this isn’t the first time Dallas has had to work around a tough spot for their WR1. I saw nothing in the way of limitations last week, and as long as nothing comes up during the week, I like him to be the first WR1 to have success against this Denver secondary.

If you want to disagree with me, that’s fine. But what’s the actionable? There’s no way you’re starting 2-3 receivers ahead of him, so there is no conversation for season-long. If you want to fade Lamb in DFS contests, that’s fair, though I’d argue that suppressed ownership for one of the best in the sport is enticing.

Chris Godwin | TB

The fibula cost Chris Godwin Monday night and continues to be labeled as “week-to-week” following this setback from the serious injury he suffered a season ago.

The lack of clarity (out this week with an unknown timeline) and Mayfield’s raw ability require us to hold onto the veteran receiver, but this is a playoff team motivated to play the long game.

As of this writing, I’m not confident that I rank Godwin as a viable starter at any point for the remainder of this season, but we can’t act on that. As of this writing, I’m not confident that I rank Godwin as a viable starter at any point for the remainder of this season, but we can’t act on that.

Not just yet.

Chris Olave | NO

Chris Olave recorded a 50-yard catch after getting behind the defense on New Orleans’ first drive of the second half, caught his breath on the sideline for a play, reentered, and scored from 21 yards out.

The touchdown came on an accurate Spencer Rattler pass that allowed Olave to flash the athleticism that we’ve seen with regularity up to this point in his career: everything aligned.

Sadly, that’s not always the case these days for the Saints.

He’s done well to own a 62% catch rate this season, and two huge connections over the past two weeks are great, but they’ve accounted for 56.1% of his receiving yards during those contests.

We saw the Rashid Shaheed explosion spot earlier this month, and that’s what this Rattler-led offense is: high-risk. If you told me that one of their top-3 players was going to produce viable fantasy numbers every week, I’d believe you, but you’re playing with fire in assuming that you know who it’ll be.

I trust the volume of Olave, and that’s why he ranks as a top 15-ish receiver for me weekly. The Bucs have allowed a receiver to gash them for over 19 PPR points in three consecutive weeks, and Olave is the best bet to make it four of five.

That said, I’m not under the illusion that one big game all of a sudden changes this profile: there’s more risk/reward in a player like Olave than a Michael Pittman type.

Christian Kirk | HOU

Christian Kirk was added to the Week 7 injury report heading into the weekend and was ruled out on Saturday with a hamstring injury.

The hamstring injury delayed his 2023 debut by two weeks and capped his snap share at 67.8% in the three games he has managed to be active for. This team pretty clearly needs a secondary threat next to Collins, and Kirk is a clear favorite to assume that role, but with three DNPs working against him this season after missing nine in 2024 and five in 2023, he’s going to need to prove full health before getting the least bit of fantasy lineup consideration.

The short-term schedule isn’t friendly (Denver comes to Houston next week), but if he can round into form by December, there’s a world in which he’s a viable flex (against Arizona and Las Vegas in Weeks 15-16).

Courtland Sutton | DEN

The banged-up Commanders ruined a nice trend, but the Cowboys have allowed a receiver to clear 17.5 PPR points in five of six games now, and there is no debating who is the most likely Bronco to expose this secondary.

Courtland Sutton is benefiting from the volume that this offense gives him. The clear-cut WR1 has run 40+ routes in four games this season, including three of four games during their current win streak. He leads this team in receiving by 200 yards and has as many splash plays as any two of his teammates combined.

There is no denying that Bo Nix has had some growing pains at points this season, but Sutton has largely been unaffected with five top-20 finishes this young season.

With six teams on a bye, that’s something of a floor: he’s got a seat at the top 10 table this week for me, the first time this season holding such a designation.

Darius Slayton | NYG

A hamstring injury that occurred in Week 5 continues to keep Darius Slayton on the shelf, and that’s a shame.

It’s not just sapping you of an upside option during these bye weeks; it’s limiting his rep count with Jaxson Dart. Asking him to impact your lineup positively, should he return this weekend, in his first game back, isn’t something that I’d be remotely comfortable considering.

There’s big-play potential in Slayton’s profile, and it’ll be interesting to see how that meshes with the abilities of Dart, but that’s just it. “To see.” This is a connection I’m going to need to see produce well before investing.

Suppose you have a spot to burn, by all means. But in leagues with shallow benches, this isn’t a player you’re expecting to count on in the short term, and that’s a tough sell.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL

DeAndre Hopkins is used almost exclusively as a boundary receiver and is on the field for only 27.7% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps.

If that were all you knew and there was no name next to the profile, you wouldn’t be even remotely interested. Hopkins has had a great career, and if the Ravens are going to pull this season out of the flames, he will probably make a few plays along the way. But when they come and how much impact they make in our fantasy world is TBD at best.

Hopkins has yet to reach 6.5 expected points in a game this season, and that doesn’t project as likely to change any time soon.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS

We weren’t sure this heel injury would cost Deebo Samuel time, but he sat out last week and should be approached with caution.

He’s looked great for the majority of this season (TD or 10 targets in four of six games), though some of that production has come with Terry McLaurin sidelined.

The hope is that this offense is close to full strength this week, though it’s obviously something you need to track as the weekend nears. This Chiefs defense is among the best in the game, but Samuel’s versatility gives him paths to success in virtually any spot.

If all health concerns fade, Samuel will check in as a reasonable flex play for me in Week 8.

DeMario Douglas | NE

If it weren’t for the big catch against the Saints in Week 6, DeMario Douglas probably wouldn’t be anywhere near roster consideration (one game with 20+ receiving yards).

He made an important play on a touchdown drive last week, but his holding value for New England isn’t the same as his holding value to us.

Douglas is hovering around 10 yards per catch for his career and has scored just five times on 189 targets. For him to be of interest to us, we need high-end volume, and that’s just not happening under Drake Maye.

There’s no need to hold out hope in 2025.

DeVonta Smith | PHI

An early touchdown to Brown and a pick-6 had Week 7 lining up as a bust week for Smith.

Not the case.

Philadelphia’s offense stalled enough in the middle third of the game to allow the Vikings to stay tight and thus keep the passing game in play. Their pressure-oriented scheme left both Eagle receivers on islands at times, and man did they take advantage.

Smith turned 11 targets into 183 yards and a touchdown, looking unguardable for much of the afternoon. It was his second big game in October … the catch being that the dud came in Week 6, against these Giants.

I’m not too worried and am playing Smith as an acceptable WR2 this week.

The Giants allow the fourth-most yards per slot pass this season, and that is what has changed for Smith this season (57% slot rate, up from 47.5% a season ago).

I think the 11 targets will be tough to repeat, but he’s been ultra-efficient with his looks, and if he can land one splash play, asking him to flirt with 15 PPR points isn’t too much.

DJ Moore | CHI

DJ Moore hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 1 and hasn’t earned more than six targets in a single game this season after finishing the 2024 season with eight straight games of 7+ targets earned.

Caleb Williams has struggled since the bye, but even when he was playing at a higher level, the veteran receiver was only marginally involved.

The limited volume could stand to be offset if he were using his savvy to separate in scoring situations, but his red zone target rate is trending for a career low. Ben Johnson is having more fun scheming around the specific talents of his young pass catchers and, recently, leaning into the running game.

Things are certainly trending in the wrong direction for Moore. The Ravens’ defense has struggled across the board, and that’s why he remains on the fringe of my top 30 at the position, but he’s far from a must-start.

I’ve got home run threats like Matthew Golden (at PIT), ranked ahead of Moore for Week 8.

DK Metcalf | PIT

All of the math continues to work against DK Metcalf.

Even with another nice sideline catch, he’s not being targeted with regularity down the field, and that caps his upside.

As for his floor, that’s capped by a lack of volume. He has 22 catches in six games this season, and if you tuned in late on Thursday night, it’s possible you didn’t hear his name called once until the fourth quarter (two catches in the first nine minutes, with his third coming in the fourth quarter).

He figures to draw significant attention this week from the Packers’ strong defense, and, in the past, that wouldn’t terrify me. Nothing against Green Bay, but if an offense wants to prioritize a 6’4″ athlete like Metcalf, the production has a way of finding him, even in tough spots.

That’s not the case in Pittsburgh.

Rodgers trusts him to make the bail-out plays, but this offense isn’t built to get the best version of Metcalf.

Appreciate you, Arthur Smith.

With six teams on a bye, there’s only so much you can do here, but should he make one of those Metcalf, score-10-points-on-a-single-catch plays this week, I wouldn’t hesitate at all to cash in this chip for a receiver you think holds top 20 value the rest of the way.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB

You could argue that we don’t have a definitive answer on who the WR1 in Lambeau is, but we are getting pretty strong signals about who is no longer in that mix.

Dontayvion Wicks is battling an ankle injury, and that’s impacting his data to some degree, but 39 yards on 57 routes over the past month isn’t getting it done, not with Jayden Reed shelved.

The Packers have an advantageous schedule over the final seven weeks of the fantasy season, and that gives Wicks the potential to work into a role should the depth chart ahead of him give him a chance, but at this point, it appears that his fate is out of his hands.

I’m comfortable cutting ties here if the roster crunch of bye-maggedon is too much for you to deal with in other ways.

Drake London | ATL

That’s now three straight games with double-digit targets for Drake London, the return of Darnell Mooney not really impacting his usage last week in the loss to the 49ers.

The value of his opportunities is up for debate, with Michael Penix struggling to find consistency in his first season as the leader of this offense. Still, I’m happy to gamble on this target/talent combination every single week, regardless of the matchup.

Miami has allowed a WR to reach 20 PPR points in three of seven weeks, a major weakness given that they haven’t exactly played a murderers’ row of opponents. London has cleared 15 expected points in every game this month, and I expect him to more than pay off his opportunities in this spot.

London is a Tier 1 receiver for me this week, checking in as my WR5.

Emeka Egbuka | TB

A week ago, there was a discussion about how much time Emeka Egbuka would miss due to a hamstring injury.

Over the weekend, it became clear that there was a chance he’d suit up on Monday night in Detroit.

Fast forward, and the rookie sees a season-high 12 passes thrown his way and sees his value to this team spike beyond where it already stood after Evans broke his collarbone late in the first half of the 24-9 loss.

Egbuka wasn’t effective at the level that we’ve come to expect in Week 17 (58 yards on 12 targets), but I think we can cut him some slack when you consider all of the moving pieces.

This is a great spot for him to get on the same page as Mayfield and reestablish himself as a top 15 receiver for the remainder of the season. The bye comes next week, and the hope is that Egbuka is back to his early-season form for a favorable finishing stretch that is highlighted by games in Carolina and Miami during the final two weeks of our season.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ

The hyperextended knee Garrett Wilson suffered in Week 6 against the Broncos was initially identified as a multi-week injury, so managers should count on being without New York’s alpha target until at least Week 10’s game against Cleveland (Week 9 bye).

Despite the obvious limitations of this offense, Wilson has four WR1 finishes on his 2025 resume, and that requires him to be started in all formats. We can nitpick about the ceiling/floor profile for him compared to those around him in the ranks, but his talent has shown the ability to rise above his supporting case.

Assuming reasonable practice participation heading into that Week 10 game, I’ll feel fine about reinserting him into lineups the second the Jets decide he is healthy enough to return.

George Pickens | DAL

A 44-yard catch made the day for George Pickens against the Commanders, and while spike plays like that aren’t the most reliable, it’s his specific role in this high-functioning pass game.

Lamb returned last week, and while there was a minor downtick in target share of Pickens, he still saw over 100 air yards (he’s averaging 106 per game this season) and produced over expectations.

The ceiling is naturally going to be lower as the WR2 in this offense than when he was the WR1, but that doesn’t mean he falls out of your lineups.

If anything, the case could be made that, in the DFS streets, he’s now more attractive because fewer managers are flocking to him.

There will be some duds on weeks that the deep ball doesn’t connect, but assuming that Patrick Surtain draws the Lamb shadow, Pickens should have plenty of chances to impact your lineup as a rock-solid WR2.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN

221 catches
2,168 yards

Easy game. That’s the pace for Ja’Marr Chase if you simply extrapolate his two stat lines with Joe Flacco as the starter, obviously a very statistically responsible thing to do.

OK, so that’s not true. The pace is, but his seeing 17.5 targets per game probably doesn’t stick.

That said, what’s not to like? The deep shots are always going to be an option with an athletic profile like Chase’s, but how about 62.9% of his targets coming less than 10 yards downfield (first five weeks: 54.4%)?

Pair that with the Bengals trusting Flacco to determine their fate with 45 passes a game, and we are approaching the preseason version of Chase — the version where it’s hard to see exactly how he fails over the course of 60 minutes.

I’ll warn for some natural regression (a 765-pass pace for Flacco since joining the team isn’t happening), and it could hit this week with a Jets team that wants to muddy the game. Sauce Gardner (if active) figures to be in Chase’s shadow for most of the night, and while that’s not enough to make any moves to your fantasy roster, it is certainly a difficult spot.

Less than a month ago, we wondered if Chase was a lineup lock after a two-week run where all seemed lost with 14 targets turning into 73 touchdownless yards. Now, we are full steam ahead.

I don’t think Cincinnati is a playoff team, but it doesn’t matter what I think. They are in the AFC North race now and could rattle off wins this week and next (vs. CHI) before their Week 9 bye, really making things interesting.

Chase is a top 5 receiver the rest of the way, and that might be conservative.

Jalen Coker | CAR

Jalen Coker (quad) made his season debut against the Jets last weekend, but unless you were paying awfully close attention, you may not have noticed.

While Xavier Legette was busy making plays left and right, Coker turned 17 routes into zero catches (two targets). It’s only natural to give him a little time to ramp up, though most of us don’t have time for that with bye weeks taking a bite out of our depth this week.

Is it really worth waiting on a player whose best-case scenario is the WR2 in a Bryce Young-led offense that would prefer to run the ball a million times?

I say no.

In deeper leagues, you could convince me of it because I’m intrigued by this profile, but if that’s not your situation, I’d be looking elsewhere for upside both in Week 8 and the rest of 2025.

Jauan Jennings | SF

If Jauan Jennings’ broken rib count is going to continue to outpace his reception number, you can’t justify starting him with any level of confidence.

Over the past two weeks, he’s turned 63 routes into 38 receiving yards, and that’s with a banged-up cast around him. What happens when Ricky Pearsall returns or when George Kittle is prioritized?

I respect the Kyle Shanahan system, and that’s why I’m not entertaining the idea of moving on. With that understood, he’s not a top 30 receiver for me this week in a game I suspect could be rather ugly.

Jayden Higgins | HOU

Jayden Higgins profiles more as Collins’ insurance than Christian Kirk, so it wasn’t surprising to see him not see a massive role change to open last week’s loss to the Seahawks with the slot weapon sidelined (hamstring).

He’s earned 13 targets this season and really hasn’t proven himself to the Texans, let alone fantasy managers. That said, Collins (concussion) did exit early on Monday night and the 49ers are one of four defenses yet to intercept a deep pass.

They also rank 20th on completion percentage when it comes to those chunk plays, making Higgins an interesting desperation dart throw in a week where you may be required to take such a shot.

That’s if Collins is sidelined. If he plays, that’s where those shot passes are going, and you can find better lottery tickets to scratch.

Jayden Reed | GB

Jayden Reed underwent foot and clavicle surgeries in the middle of September, and the first half of November has remained the target ever since.

Green Bay’s presumed WR1 scored in Week 1 and was injured on a play in Week 2 that was inches from being a score. It’s only a six-target sample, so do with it what you will, but three came 15+ yards downfield (sub 30% rate in each of his first two seasons).

My thought is that the team was aware of what Tucker Kraft could do in the short receiving game, and the speed of Matthew Golden was anything but a secret, thus opening up Reed to expand his route tree a bit. That’s how he can become a weekly fantasy asset, but he needs to prove himself healthy before anything.

The Packers play the Bears twice in December, matchups that give Reed the potential to crack my top 24 in those impact weeks, should his usage trend in the direction we saw out of the gates.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA

Jaylen Waddle cleared 15 PPR points in each of the first two games following the Tyreek Hill injury, but when Tua Tagovailoa was asked to support him in anything less than ideal conditions, he vanished.

In the blowout loss, Waddle picked up 15 yards on his 25 routes, and we saw next to zero signs of life from this passing game.

If you want to talk yourself into this being a weatherproof game and thus a spot to trust Waddle, go crazy. I like my mental stability, so I’m opting to look elsewhere when given the opportunity and have him ranked as a low-end WR3.

Only twice this season has a team seen a receiver score even a dozen PPR points against the Falcons, and Waddle doesn’t exactly fit the mold of those two instances (Emeka Egbuka in Week 1 and Deebo Samuel in Week 4).

Give me Worthy or Khalil Shakir over Miami’s WR1 this week: I’d rather bet on those quarterbacks and take my chances.

Jaylin Noel | HOU

The broadcast on Monday night continued to insist that Jaylin Noel was an asset in the making, and while his long-term outlook will depend on how this Texans team builds out their offense, he certainly looked like the better Iowa State wide receiver.

Week 7 Data

Noel: 44.9% snap share, 4 catches, 7 targets
Jayden Higgins: 65.2% snap share, 0 catches, 3 targets

He was filling a void left by Christian Kirk (hamstring) and later by Collins, so I’m not ready to say he’s close to redraft flex radars, but he did show well for himself against a tough Seahawks defense that was living in the backfield.

Stashing him is a sound strategy: Houston will want to get him as many live reps as possible this season, and the lingering nature of the Kirk injury could accelerate that process in a meaningful way.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE

Your waiver wire probably isn’t packed with receivers who see 7-8 targets weekly, and that’s the only redeeming quality to Jerry Jeudy at this point.

He’s holding steady at a 42.3% catch rate this season and has one end zone target to his name (267 routes run). Dillon Gabriel is running a low-octane offense, and that’s a tough sell for a speed-oriented receiver like Jeudy at face value, never mind that the shortening of targets hasn’t helped the efficiency issues in the least.

Is Jeudy any better than an Alec Pierce or Kayshon Boutte type? Lesser talents with a similar skill set that have access to a QB playing at a far higher level?

That’s the tier he calls home this week in my rankings, and I’m not motivated to look this direction in any format, even in a script that I believe will force the Browns to pass more than they’d like to.

Josh Downs | IND

A concussion kept Downs out last week against the Chargers, and the hope is that the absence doesn’t extend beyond that.

The third-year receiver seemed to find a little bit of a groove before the DNP, catching 12 passes in two October games after hauling in 14 during all of September.

The issue I have with the Downs profile is that he needs volume in an offense that would be more than happy to put the ball in the belly of Taylor 30 times as a big favorite this week (he turned 17 carries into 102 yards during the Week 2 meeting).

We are now more than a month removed from Downs’ last 15-yard catch, and with eight scores on 239 career targets, we can’t exactly bank on a bailout play.

I’m confident to project a handful of targets this week, assuming all recovery boxes are checked, and he’ll probably be efficient with them. I’m just not sure there’s a ceiling to chase. If you have built a strong team and need to lock in 8-10 PPR points, Downs is very much in the conversation.

If you’re an underdog and are thus willing to swallow some risk for potential reward, I’d look elsewhere.

Joshua Palmer | BUF

Josh Palmer took two targets and led Buffalo in receiving yards (60) against the Falcons before the bye.

Great.

Don’t care.

Palmer hasn’t reached a 50% snap share since Week 1, and his expected point total has been under five points in four of those five.

This is where I draw the line. Wanting to chase exposure to this offense is logical, but you’re taking on far too much risk for little reward by way of Palmer. You’d be much better off rostering a handcuff running back instead of a weekly swing-for-the-fences receiver and hoping you catch lightning in a bottle.

Kayshon Boutte | NE

We’ve gone over this for a few weeks now, and it keeps paying off, so let’s stick with it: Kayshon Boutte is the apple of Maye’s eye when he has a clean pocket and an afterthought otherwise.

Over the past two weeks, he’s made spike plays against the Titans and Saints, two defenses that rank in the bottom 10 in pressure rate.

At first blush, you’d assume that this isn’t a great spot, and you’d be right.

Sort of.

Cleveland ranks 17th in overall pressure rate and 13th when not blitzing. That’s better than the past two opponents and could lead you to fade this heater in DFS, but if you look a little bit closer, I think there’s some juice to squeeze as long as the ownership numbers stay low.

Browns’ Pressure Rankings By Month

September: 7th
October: 26th

Boutte has run hot on the seven targets he’s earned during this stretch (148 yards and three touchdowns), so I’m not selling you on him as a “safe” play in any regard. I’d rather steer clear in season-long leagues because of the variance and my belief that this could be an ugly game, but in top-heavy weekly leagues?

I’ve seen worse statistical decisions made.

Kendrick Bourne | SF

This may have run its course.

Kendrick Bourne posted consecutive 142-yard games to open October. Still, this team is gradually getting healthier, and that has the ninth-year man in danger of phasing off our radar altogether.

On Sunday against the Falcons, he turned 23 routes into just two targets (14 yards). It was his fourth game with under 40 receiving yards this season, struggles that I expect to sustain moving forward.

Bourne needs to be held until we have proof that the receivers ahead of him on the depth chart are reasonably healthy, but I think it’s far more likely that he’s on the cut list before Thanksgiving than in the flex conversation.

Keon Coleman | BUF

By now, you know what this profile is: low volume, high upside.

But that last part really hasn’t happened. Through six weeks of this season, the man with impressive hoops highlights in his profile was not one of the 147 players across the league with a catch gaining more than 25 yards.

If the big plays aren’t going to be there, Coleman isn’t close to lineup consideration. He’s been held under 30 receiving yards in four of his past five games, and while I do think there is talent here in a great offense, the risk isn’t worth the reward at this moment in time.

Sit back and wait. Maybe things look different coming out of the bye, but you have to take the patient route at this point.

Khalil Shakir | BUF

The YAC skills of Shakir are no secret (over 7.0 in every season of his career), but with more than five targets just once since the opener, a player who we once lauded for the elevated floor is no longer a safe bet.

Before the bye, 100% of Buffalo’s yards against the Falcons came when trailing. It was also a contest played without Dalton Kincaid and AJ Terrell lurking on the perimeter with Keon Coleman.

If there was ever a spot for Shakir to rack up the looks, that was it. He posted just a 19.2% target share and was one of six Bills to finish with 11-33 receiving yards. Tyrell Shavers doubled his season targets in that game, and while I don’t think it sticks, it’s at least worth noting that Buffalo was getting a little creative.

Shakir is a low-ceiling PPR flex that doesn’t need to be started. This is obviously a good spot, but if Buffalo controls the game as expected, how many targets are there to be had?

Luther Burden III | CHI

Remember the last time Luther Burden ran 15+ routes in a football game?

It was in college.

The speedster has yet to get there as a pro, and with Olamide Zaccheaus essentially playing ahead of him, not to mention both tight ends seeing work, there’s not nearly enough meat on this bone to justify holding.

This offense has weekly upside, and Ben Johnson is always capable of crafting up packages, but in a redraft situation, this is a no-fly zone. In a GPP? I could see it as a punt play, as long as you understand the risks at hand.

Marquise Brown | KC

Hollywood Brown scored last week, but under a yard per route is discouraging, and it’s tough to find consistent looks for him in this offense with Rice stepping right back into the alpha earner role.

I’m selling to the highest bidder and not thinking twice about it.

I said two weeks ago that I’d move him for the Packers D/ST, and you’ve lost out big time if you executed at the time of that suggestion.

I’d still do it.

Green Bay has a very reasonable schedule for the rest of the way, and that’s a starting spot, whereas you’d really need to be in a tough spot to plug in Brown, barring an injury around him.

Brown sits outside of my top 40 at the position this week, behind lesser talents like Troy Franklin and Mooney, who are in great matchups.

Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN

Marvin Mims set season highs in routes, targets, and receiving yards last week against the Giants. While a crazy game script certainly played into that, it’s a positive step for a player who has struggled to produce such data points this season.

This is exactly the type of player that you could be forced into playing for this goofy week, with six teams on a bye and various injuries impacting the teams that are in action.

Is Mims safe?

Not close.

But you’re taking a stab at a high-upside receiver attached to an offense with upside in a matchup that is a fantasy steroid.

Mims’ average touchdown length for his career is 37.9 yards, making him a real threat to land a single punch in this favorable spot.

Matthew Golden | GB

Either I’m confused about the plan or the Packers are confused about the prospect.

I’m not sure either is a good outcome.

Matthew Golden had a 14.8-yard aDOT through five career games before checking in at 3.8 last week in Arizona.

Is he a field stretcher? A gadget guy? At risk of disappearing altogether when the WR room is at full strength with Jayden Reed and Christian Watson on the mend?

I maintain my thought that there is potential here. Jordan Love is going to take his shots, and Golden has proven capable of getting vertical, but the odds of us achieving any level of consistency are declining week by week.

Pittsburgh has allowed at least four deep completions in two of its past three games, and if that trend continues, Green Bay’s talented rookie could bail you out during a tough week.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND

The Colts have been the story of the 2025 season up to this point, and the team’s success is driving fantasy value to just about anyone you have on your roster.

Michael Pittman has finished as WR22 or better in five of seven weeks this season, a heck of a bargain for a player who was rarely drafted inside the top 36 at the position this summer.

It all looks sustainable to me.

The types of targets he is earning (spot on the field and depth) are within the range of acceptable outcomes based on his career norms, and his targets-per-route mark is identical to what we’ve come to expect.

Realistically, the only thing that has changed has been the QB play in town.

2025: 74.5% catch rate
2024: 62.2% catch rate
2023: 69.9% catch rate
2022: 70.2% catch rate
2021: 68.2% catch rate
2020: 63.4% catch rate

Maybe we see that slip a touch, but this offense is geared to make Daniel Jones comfortable, and he’s delivering. Pittman has given us at least five receptions in four of his past five games and continues to produce without the aid of chunk plays (35 receptions this season, and his longest is 27 yards).

If we regress the efficiency a little, but add in some splash plays, he remains a locked-in WR2 with relatively little downside. Jones spread the ball around against these Titans back in Week 3 (three Colts earned 5-6 targets), and it was Pittman that did the damage (6-73-1).

I have him penciled in as my WR15 this week, and I’m more likely to shift him up than back the closer we get to kickoff.

Mike Evans | TB

Mike Evans returned from three straight DNP’s due to a hamstring injury and looked reasonably healthy.

That is, until he landed hard late in the second quarter and broke his collarbone. For now, you’re keeping him stashed until we get confirmation that his season is over, but early reports suggest that it’s possible.

Even if it’s not, the odds seem long that he will play a full complement of snaps during the remainder of the fantasy season. This is a tough blow for one of the better players of a generation, but Mayfield is going to continue to throw the ball, and this opens up interesting waivers on the waiver wire.

Leading Target Earners Post Evans Injury

Egbuka: 10
Tez Johnson: 8
Cade Otton: 7
Sterling Shepard: 5
Kam Johnson: 1

Nico Collins | HOU

An apparent head injury (now deemed a concussion) cost Collins the majority of the fourth quarter on Monday night, but was anything really going to change during the final 15 minutes?

He had a chunk play taken off the board due to a penalty early in addition to an inexcusable drop, but after that, he really wasn’t in a spot to succeed based on the type of target he was seeing in Seattle.

With Stroud fearing for his life, a lot of Collins’ targets were in traffic at best and ludicrous at worst. We are talking about basically jump-ball situations — something I don’t mind with an athlete like this if they carry upside-down less than 10 yards down the field, because the pressure is getting home before he even hits the top of his drop.

Collins finished with 27 yards on 10 targets, his fourth game this season with under 55 yards, and the third time this season he’s failed to come down with over 60% of his targets.

These high-risk, low-reward targets are generally a losing formula. We’ve seen Collins’ average depth of target (aDOT) slowly dip in each of his past four games, and with it, all upside is being sucked out of this profile.

You’re starting him because Houston is low on trusted options, and Stroud’s reflex is to put the ball in the air for his WR1, but this situation very much handcuffs the ceiling. The 49ers have allowed a receiver to reach 11 PPR points in just two of their past five games, putting Collins (assuming health) at risk of another sub-standard performance based on the capital you spent on him this summer.

Pat Bryant | DEN

If ever there was an opportunity for Pat Bryant to have “a moment,” it would have been Sunday’s crazy win, when Nix thought in colors for the final 15 minutes and produced big plays left and right.

But it didn’t happen. Denver authored potentially the best comeback of the season, and their rookie receiver finished with six yards on 24 routes.

Half of his routes came in that dramatic fourth quarter, and even with everything seeming to go right for this offense, he failed to catch the one ball thrown in his direction.

It’s time to move on. We fought the good fight, but we have to call it on the 2025 upside.

Is it possible that Bryant improves as this season continues to wear on? Of course it is, but part of that is that he really has no other option: he’s ninth on this team in receiving yards. If there’s nobody of interest to you on the wire, I’d hold for one more week, simply because any team that hosts the Cowboys has the potential to show us new ways of putting points on the board.

But if you’re in the same type of roster crunch that most of us are this week, moving on is plenty reasonable.

Rashee Rice | KC

The “everyone will eat” mantra is cute, and it makes sense if you’re a team with a bunch of equally skilled players. It’s a good way to boost morale and keep everyone engaged when scheming up plays.

It’s also not a sharp strategy when you have an alpha target earner, and Reid is a sharp offensive mind, so we should have never read into the idea of a democratic approach to the target distribution in Kansas City once it was made official that Rice was good to go.

100 catches
128 targets
8 touchdowns

That would be a career year for most: it’s the last 14 healthy games for Rice, a stretch that includes four playoff games in which the defenses stiffen.

Forget the volume for a minute and focus on that 78.1% catch rate that trends closer to what we expect from a running back than a top-notch receiver.

The argument could be made that he’s like 90% of St. Brown, but couldn’t Patrick Mahomes playing at an MVP rate cover that 10% difference?

There were designed screens, there were flip plays, and there were back-shoulder timing plays. There was a bit of everything on Sunday, and I can’t help but think we are just getting started.

I think it would be more difficult to argue against Rice being a top-seven receiver this week than slotting him at the top overall spot.

Rashid Shaheed | NO

I spend a lot of time talking about offensive environment and how it stands to impact fantasy players, for better or worse, and Rashid Shaheed is a great example.

He earned a season-high nine targets in Chicago last week, but it didn’t really matter. For the fifth time in six weeks, he caught exactly four passes and finished with 28-52 receiving yards.

When I talk about the limitations of an offense like that of New Orleans, it’s not that all options are useless; it’s more that no one is safe.

It was a Chris Olave game last week (5-98-2). That’s going to happen. A bad offensive environment in 2023 doesn’t mean the value is sucked out of all involved; it means that there is a direct push-and-pull effect that doesn’t happen in stable situations.

Ja’Marr Chase’s triple crown season didn’t stop Tee Higgins from having a great season because that offensive environment was sound. James Cook can succeed next to Josh Allen because there’s plenty of food at the table.

That’s not the case for the Saints, obviously. I believe Shaheed is a good player, but so is Chris Olave (didn’t have 60 receiving yards in a game until Week 6), and I don’t think Alvin Kamara (3.6 yards per carry and hasn’t scored since Week 1) is completely finished.

But a bet on any one of them is inherently a bet against the other two. This offense isn’t going to consistently support multiple assets, and the math works out that you’re going to be underwhelmed more often than not in a situation like this.

The Bucs are better against the run than the pass, and that gives Shaheed hope, but nothing is assured in this system. I rank for mean outcomes, and with him finishing outside of the top 35 at the position in four of the past five weeks (shootout to the WR9 finish in Week 5), it’s hard to justify getting him into any tier other than the very low-end flex conversation.

Rashod Bateman | BAL

I’m all in on wanting to bet on the Jackson comeback, but I’m not doing it by way of Rashod Bateman.

For his career, 25.3% of his targets have come deep down the field, and that’s a dangerous way to live in the best of situations. It gets even worse when you’re not exceptionally good at shaking free (pacing for a sub-17% target share in a third straight season).

Bateman can be left on waiver wires for now, and if we see him being featured in a new way after the bye, we can reassess. At the end of the day, this is a profile I’m more willing to be late on than early.

Ricky Pearsall | SF

The truth of the matter is that we don’t know.

Ricky Pearsall complained of “instability” in his knee at the end of September, and we have yet to see him in October. Positive reports have been few and far between, and the best approach seems simple: see it before you believe it.

Every week is going to bring its own set of struggles for you, but I’m having a hard time seeing a situation in which you play Pearsall when he first returns. The 15.9-yard aDOT speaks to a very specific skill that requires high-end athleticism to pay off on a good day, not to mention physical limitations that can also creep into the mental side of things.

I’m not a doctor or a psychologist, so I can’t give you in-depth details about what he is going through or the boxes he needs to check before returning to the WR, who had a pair of top-20 finishes in the first month of the season.

What I can tell you is that you’re not required to play him when the 49ers do, and that I’ll give him at least a one-week buffer between that date and his return to my radar.

Rome Odunze | CHI

I’ll admit it.

I spent too much time looking at this Rome Odunze profile and trying to figure out exactly what has changed following the bye.

Weeks 1-4: 2.10 yards per route, 34.1% slot usage, 2.27 points per target
Weeks 6-7: 1.11 yards per route, 31.7% slot usage, 0.94 points per target

The time spent in the slot is usually my default for drastic swings like this. Those are the layup-type targets that typically fuel fantasy efficiency. That rate isn’t different enough to catch my eye, but what his routes look like when in the slot is where we start to make sense of things.

Weeks 1-4: 10.3 aDOT when in the slot
Weeks 6-7: 23.8 aDOT when in the slot

Is Ben Johnson trying to get cute, or is this part of a master plan that could have his second-year receiver thriving with time?

I trust him as an offensive mind and Odunze as a talent, and I believe we’ve lost a few weekly battles lately to win the long-term role, but I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing this role change yield some fruit along the way.

The Ravens have been a mess over the past month against every type of opponent, and, to be honest, things weren’t great when this team was at full strength.

I’m staying the course. His average weekly finish during the first month of the season was WR15, and that’s on the low end of what I’m expecting come Sunday afternoon.

Romeo Doubs | GB

I’d never dream of jinxing something, so I’m just going to lay out the facts for the past month.

Romeo Doubs has as many catches as any other Packer has targets (17)
Romeo Doubs has four of Green Bay’s six end zone targets
Romeo Doubs leads the Packers in average depth of target

Again, I’m going to catch myself before I suggest that this team has made it clear as to who their WR1 is, seemingly for the first time in the post-Davante Adams world. We’ve seen runs from other receivers, and we’ve had the carpet pulled out from under us when we felt ready to commit.

But if someone were to think such a thing, a matchup against a Steelers defense that is allowing the fifth-most red zone drives per game would be of interest to me. The same defense that has allowed a receiver to clear 18 PPR points in four of six games.

All hypothetical. If Green Bay had, in this make-believe world in which we are speculating about, landed on a WR1, said player would be flirting with top 20 status for this Sunday night showdown.

Stefon Diggs | NE

Stefon Diggs’ timeline isn’t the same as Drake Maye’s, but it’s clear that the veteran receiver offers comfort for the breakout star, and that’s paying the fantasy bills.

The 31-year-old has caught 6+ passes four times this season, including three times over the past month. He’s yet to find the end zone (one end zone target), but if you trust the trajectory of this offense, it would stand to reason that the scores come (32 touchdowns in 58 games in his four seasons leading into this one) with him looking as healthy as we’ve seen in a bit.

For the record, I find it difficult to believe that, in his 11th season, Diggs posts a career high in yards per route. Some regression is to be expected, but we are looking at the top target in an offense moving in the right direction, who clearly has the trust of his QB (11 catches on 13 third-down looks this season).

Diggs is in the top 20 conversation for me this week, even against a good defense.

Tee Higgins | CIN

Let’s get this out of the way first: I’m sorry if you rostered Tee Higgins and lost your matchup by 6.7 or fewer points last week. His 6-96-1 stat line is obviously great, but his electing to slide at the seven-yard line late instead of extending for a touchdown hurts.

It won the game for the Steelers, but you’re still allowed to be frustrated.

Cincinnati’s WR2 recorded season highs in catches, targets, and yards in Joe Flacco’s debut with the team, and he bettered all of them on Thursday night. The bar was set low, but it’s obvious that the veteran QB is aware that his job is to load up his top two receivers with as much volume as humanly possible, and that is why we can feel good about starting Higgins again after a rough first month.

With six teams on a bye and Sauce Gardner more likely to square up with Ja’Marr Chase, you should feel great about rolling Higgins out there as your WR2 in all formats, understanding that, as long as the volume sticks in this offense, he could be a top 15 asset at the position the rest of the way.

Terry McLaurin | WAS

This annoying quad injury has now cost Terry McLaurin four straight games, though reports indicate he is making progress.

That’s obviously great to hear, but I don’t care. If he returns this week, I’m looking for an excuse to go elsewhere. A month of missed time is a lot and carries with it reinjury risk, not to mention this being one of the better defensive units in the league.

McLaurin’s aDOT is pacing for his highest mark since his rookie campaign, and if he’s limited physically, a cardio-centric outing is certainly within the range of outcomes.

Pay attention to his practice habits as the weekend approaches; it’s possible that, with six teams on bye, you’re really short on options. With this game being the last one of the week, I’d need more than a questionable label come Sunday action to sit active receivers for McLaurin this week.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR

Tetairoa McMillan is a talented player who could follow a Collins-like trajectory, with a physical mismatch that develops into stardom over time.

In brutal situations, it can take more time than we are willing to accept. McMillan drew the Sauce Gardner shadow for large portions of Week 7, and there’s no shame in struggling in such a spot, but he’s failed to catch more than four passes in four of his past five games, and Gardner doesn’t play for all of those defenses.

He’s a raw rookie with lots of upside. That profile can work in the right spot, but a Bryce Young offense isn’t that spot.

I like the odds of Carolina playing from behind, and that’s a good thing. In their three losses this season, their WR1 is averaging 9.0 targets and 76.7 yards (wins: 6.5 targets and 45.8 yards). He’s a low-end WR2 that ranks in the same range as Stefon Diggs (vs. CLE) and Romeo Doubs (at PIT).

Tez Johnson | TB

Tez Johnson has scored in consecutive games, and while he’s roughly the same build as a fantasy sports researcher, he makes for a nice midseason add to your roster.

It’s unlikely that he scores every week, but he did wrap his collegiate career with a pair of 80+ catch, 10-TD seasons at Oregon. He’s averaging 17 yards per catch in his limited run this season. He should have some single coverage situations to attack with plenty of attention likely to be paid toward fellow rookie Emeka Egbuka.

Egbuka is the clear WR1 in this offense, and Cade Otton holds more value than Johnson due to the position he plays, but I’ve got him just inside my top 40 at the position and ahead of the other fill-in options on this roster.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG

Where did the Wan’Dale Robinson that we had come to know and tolerate go?

I drafted him this summer with the thought being that I’d never play him, but if forced to, I’d embrace the elevated floor and hope that my stars do the heavy lifting for that one-off week.

That’s the furthest thing from what he is.

Over the past six weeks, he has cleared 80 yards three times, scoring in two of those contests. He’s also failed to clear 30 yards three times.

One of those good games did come against these Eagles (6-84-1 in Week 6), and the profile looks reasonably clean from that victory. The part that worries me is that he primarily thrived with a game script I don’t expect to repeat.

In that game, five of his receptions came with the G-Men holding a lead. As a seven-point underdog, on the road, against a superior team that has a full week to prepare for the film Jaxson Dart has put together, this isn’t a spot I’m comfortable.

If he reaches any of the thresholds he hit in the first meeting, I’d be surprised. I’ll take whatever 49er wide receivers decide to suit up this week (at HOU) over Robinson, and I’d be receptive to the idea of playing boom/bust options in better scoring environments like Golden or Shaheed over him.

Xavier Legette | CAR

Sauce Gardner was a shadow on Tetairoa McMillan, and that allowed Xavier Legette to get loose (9-92-1).

I’m not reading into this.

New York has struggled to defend secondary receivers all season lon,g and that allowed Bryce Young to play with rare levels of confidence.

I need to see a lot more before considering Legette as anything beyond a dart-throw flex. In the two weeks before the strong game in New York, he earned five targets and totaled 42 yards on 53 routes against the Cowboys and Dolphins.

Two tremendous matchups, and he wasn’t close to being playable.

The Bills are coming off their bye and offer much more versatility across the board than their divisional counterpart. You need to hit on a two-leg parlay for this to work out: Young and Legette to both play above their well-established baselines.

I’m not comfortable banking on either, much less both.

Xavier Worthy | KC

As the Mahomes stock increases, Worthy’s fantasy production declines, and that’s a terrifying trend for those who thought they had a long-term difference maker.

During the first three quarters last season (Mahomes was yanked at the end of the quarter with the result no longer in doubt), Worthy led the team in routes run.

He turned that playing time into an 11.8% target share.

I don’t care how good Mahomes is; a lack of target earning at that level is a red flag that gets even more red when you dig in and realize that none of his targets came deep downfield.

We saw Worthy prove himself as more than just a burner last season, and that was great. WAS. With Rice (10 targets, 2.0 aDOT) a full go, the running backs earning volume, and Kelce continuing to move the chains, the deep targets are Worthy’s path to success.

Thornton is averaging 22.2 yards per catch and hauled in a 39-yard pass last week. Jameson Williams has been a spotty player in this exact role for the Lions this season, and I’m not sure this situation profiles as different in a meaningful way.

If you play Worthy, you’d better feel great about it: his odds of determining your result, in either direction, are as high as anyone in this tier of flex options. Washington is one of four defenses without a deep interception, so maybe there’s a thread to pull, but they also have the eighth-lowest opponent TD% on those passes.

Worthy sits just outside of my top 20 this week, and that’s saying something given the lack of available WRs.

Zay Flowers | BAL

Zay Flowers was huge in the Week 1 loss against the Bills (7-143-1), but despite consistent volume, he’s averaged just 56 yards since with zero scores.

Of course, the Jackson injury plays a big role in that. We’ve seen Flowers’ aDOT drop since his QB1 went down, an injury that coincided with the return of Isaiah Likely. His rate of slot snaps fell off a cliff in Week 6, with Likely as healthy as he’s been, but again, there is a chicken-and-egg thing at play with the shift in overall offensive philosophy.

This matchup doesn’t scare me, nor do the other receivers in this offense (Flowers has 34 receptions, and no other receiver on this team has more than 22 targets). That’s enough for me to rank him as a viable flex option in the return of Jackson in a spot where Baltimore could score 30 points without much trouble.

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