Soppe’s Week 8 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (vs GB)

It would be difficult for Aaron Rodgers to enter this revenge game with better fantasy vibes. The loss on Thursday night in Cincinnati wasn’t great for Pittsburgh fans, and you could argue that his two poor decisions ended up costing them dearly, but the 41-year-old threw four touchdowns, all to tight ends, and showed nice touch in the process.

Of course, it was the Bengals, the fantasy performance enhancer (his first top 15 finish at the position since Week 1).

Rodgers has multiple touchdown passes in four of six games this season, but he’s yet to reach 250 yards through the air, and his days of threatening defenses with his legs are long gone.

Green Bay has been solid against starting QBs who are pocket-passer-locked (Jared Goff and Joe Flacco combined to average 4.9 YPA across three starts), and I don’t think that’s a mistake.

I’m sorry if you missed the strong showing last week, but I’d advise against chasing those points in a matchup that couldn’t be more different.

Even with six teams on a bye, Rodgers isn’t a top streaming priority for me this week.

Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton | CAR (vs BUF)

An ankle has kept Bryce Young out of practice all week, and that has Andy Dalton taking snaps this week in a “hope it doesn’t matter in the least for you” spot. If he plays, he might be a slight upgrade for the surrounding pieces in this offense, but nothing should change in your plan of attack.

Dalton has the veteran experience, but he’s reached 16 fantasy points in just two of his past 13 starts and is obviously on the back-9, if not Hole #18 of his NFL career. The Bills struggle against the run, and the Panthers want to run the ball to set up the run.

Carolina isn’t motivated to give Dalton (or Young, for that matter) a ton of work, and that makes him nearly impossible to sell in any sort of fantasy situation.

Baker Mayfield | TB (at NO)

The injuries ultimately caught up to the Buccaneers on Monday night, especially with the game script falling out of favor in Detroit.

When all was said and done, Baker Mayfield threw 50 passes, but only accounted for one score and 228 yards. After completing multiple passes of 20+ air yards in each of the first six weeks this season, Mayfield went 0-for-9 on those deep shots, and there’s certainly the risk of more games like that coming up with Mike Evans (broken collarbone) potentially done for the season.

Baker Mayfield on Mike Evans: “We’ve just gotta support him in any way we can and he’ll do the same. … He’s going through it right now but he’ll be alright. He’s as tough as they come, especially mentally. He’s made for it. But we know it’s a long season. He’s gonna heal up and… pic.twitter.com/3Y49d4EhbW

— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) October 22, 2025

Those are concerns for another day. Emeka Egbuka certainly appeared to be healthy, and he alone should help put Mayfield into the starter conversation against a Saints defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in pass TD%, passer rating, and yards per pass this season.

Bo Nix | DEN (vs DAL)

In a crazy win over the Giants, Bo Nix gave us easily his best fantasy game of his career. He racked up 40 points (previous best: 33.5) in an effort that saw him score the second-most points as a passer this season, in addition to nearly doubling his 2022 season output on the ground.

But what does it mean (besides the fact that he won you your Week 7 matchup)?

My take: not much. Let’s get the obvious out of the way first … his Broncos host the Cowboys this week, so whether he scored 40 or 4.0 fantasy points over the weekend, you’d be playing him.

Okay, now onto the chaos that was Sunday.

For the season, a seven-game sample, 61.4% of Nix’s fourth-quarter fantasy points came against the G-Men (35.56).

Big fantasy games can obviously happen in a variety of ways, but he’s just the third player since 2020 to score 30+ fantasy points while averaging no more than 5.6 yards per pass:

• Justin Fields: 42.7 points with 4.4 YPA (Week 9, 2022)
• Nix: 40 points with 5.6 YPA (Sunday)
• Tyler Huntley: 35.9 points with 5.4 YPA (Week 15, 2021)

It doesn’t happen often, and it’s not the most predictive of spike performance.

Oh, and then there are the tipped-pass touchdowns. Nix had a deflected pass find Troy Franklin for a TD early in the fourth quarter. It was very likely, but the cascading effect was rather unique.

That pass just as easily could have been intercepted and ended the game (-2 points). Instead, it’s a touchdown (+4.1 points), leads to a converted two-pointer (+2), and keeps the Giants on the attack.

If New York was still up 19-0, are they throwing on 3rd-and-17 on the following drive?

If they aren’t passing, the bonkers bounce that ended in Theo Johnson’s hands in stride for a 41-yard touchdown doesn’t happen, and the game doesn’t have a chance to get crazy.

But it did. It all did.

The Giants were either racking up chunk plays or taking up less than 70 seconds on their possessions, the optimal opponent runout to give us the stage for Nix to do what he did.

He doesn’t have to apologize for a single one of his points scored, and neither do you. That said, using this as an excuse to revisit your preseason priors that had the second-year QB threatening to lead the second tier in scoring is irresponsible.

Prior to everything lining up in his favor on Sunday, Nix had one finish better than QB12 this season. He’d largely underachieved both as a passer and a runner, leaving fantasy managers disappointed more often than not.

He’s a clear start this week and is in the conversation for QB1 status the rest of the way, but not locked into it. Do I feel great about two Kansas City games still on the schedule, one of which comes during a tough Packers-Jags-Chiefs end to the fantasy season?

I do not. If someone is willing to overpay based on the vibes from the weekend, a Dallas matchup this week, and a Vegas spot looming, I make the deal and laugh all the way to the bank.

Brock Purdy | SF (at HOU)

Brock Purdy has appeared in just two games this season as the toe injury continues to limit what the fourth-year QB can do.

That said, the practice reps continue to move in the right direction, and that gives us hope that this offense can get its point man back sooner rather than later.

He was on the borderline of usable when active, and I anticipate that being his spot in the ranks once he’s deemed healthy. This matchup is no walk in the park, but with six teams on a bye, you might be tracking these injury updates like a hawk.

The 49ers go on bye in Week 14 before a Titans-Colts-Bears run to close the fantasy season, a stretch that is favorable for this offense as a whole and essentially weatherproof. Purdy should clearly be rostered in all formats and could prove to be a valuable commodity at the perfect time.

Bryce Young | CAR (vs BUF)

An ankle injury led to Young being pulled early from the win over the Jets, and as of Oct. 23, he has yet to practice. But it’s not as if we were trending toward a useful day anyway.

When not playing layup matchups (MIA or DAL), Young has six touchdown passes in five games. He hasn’t thrown for 200 yards since Week 2 and offers little big-play upside.

This team is finally reasonably healthy, and that’s a start, but we are a long way away from it mattering. He’s not nearly enough of a threat with his legs, and banking on Xavier Legette to go 9-92-1 to account for nearly half of his yardage is … well, it’s living on the edge at the very best.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs SF)

He doesn’t have a chance.

I’m not saying C.J. Stroud has been great this season, but I’m not sure what realistic expectations are given this offensive line’s struggles.

Stroud shone as a rookie, and guess what? His completion percentage when not pressured has actually increased every season of his career. His 6% TD rate when not pressured is pacing for a career high, while his 0.7% INT% in such spots would be the lowest of his career.

If you want to tell me that the great QBs overcome things like this, I’ll agree with you. But this talk that Stroud is a flop is a bit over the top for me.

At this point, you can’t go this direction, and I wish I could tell you that we will see things change at some point moving forward this season, but I can’t. He hasn’t reached 235 passing yards in a game this season, and without offensive balance, his throwing multiple touchdown passes once a month or so tracks.

I’ve liked what I’ve seen in terms of his rushing production (20+ yards in five of six games), but he’s running for his life rather than as part of a thoughtful effort to move the ball downfield.

I can see a situation where this offensive line improves, and I’m in on Stroud at a significant discount this summer, but asking him to put up numbers in this current situation isn’t wise.

Caleb Williams | CHI (at BAL)

We are taking on water.

I wasn’t shy about driving the Caleb Williams ship this summer, and we are taking on water in large quantities.

After seemingly turning a corner early, we are in the midst of a three-game run in which the Year 2 QB has completed under 60% of his passes in each contest and has totaled just 2 touchdown passes.

The rushing that bailed us out at times early? Not as stable as he had hoped: 16 carries for nine yards during this stretch of fantasy flopping.

The worst part? The Bears have won each of those games and four straight overall.

I’m not anti-Bear. That’s a bad thing because this is a results-driven business, and if the results are suitable, the team is naturally less likely to adjust what they are doing in a major way.

The shot plays are down (21.7% deep throw rate in these games compared to 24.7% in the first three), and he’s seemingly accepting the “live to play another down” mantra, having completed just 35.5% of his pressured passes since Week 4.

That’s down from 54.2% prior, but it hasn’t included a turnover, and that seems to be the message: trust our offense and try to limit the superhero desires.

Good for Chicago, bad for us. Very bad.

This will be a good spot to see what we have moving forward. He’s hovering around QB1 status for me because we don’t know exactly how healthy this Ravens defense truly is.

But my antenna is raised.

For now, I have enough buckets and enough help to keep the ship afloat. But as people leave and more water comes on board, this could get tough to save sooner than later unless things change in a meaningful way.

Cameron Ward | TEN (at IND)

Another week passes, and nothing changes.

The 38-yard touchdown pass to Chimere Dike on the second drive was placed right where it needed to be, highlighting a 10-of-11 start.

But then they made some questionable decisions, and he turned the ball over multiple times. The rookie has yet to have a clear game and hasn’t even reached average in any grading metric once this season.

He’s holding onto the ball at times and at others, simply isn’t surrounded by a ton of talent. I really don’t care who you blame for all the fumbles and 30 sacks: Ward is a future asset and nothing more.

I say that to save you from yourself.

Ward is going to put some more highlight plays on film, and there is going to be one person reading this who is streaming the QB position in a fantasy championship setting … “vs. Saints”.

Good matchup and a team motivated to develop their young QB, but I can’t imagine battling all season and trusting Ward to guide your team to glory.

Carson Wentz | MIN (at LAC)

I don’t think any of us were under the impression that Carson Wentz was playing for the lead role in Minnesota as much as he was keeping the seat warm for J.J. McCarthy. Still, with more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three) over the past month, he’s clearly a Band-Aid that we need not worry about.

Yes, I’m aware that he’s cleared 310 passing yards in two of those games, but for me, that’s more of a positive signal for McCarthy than anything: you don’t have to play the position at a high level to put up some impressive numbers.

There’s a chance Wentz handles this week on short rest before the team goes back to McCarthy (that was the rough timeline when he was injured back in Week 2). But even with six teams on a bye, I can’t imagine you having to go this deep in the player pool to roster a competitive team for Week 8.

Dak Prescott | DAL (at DEN)

Welcome back, CeeDee Lamb!

Not that the profile of Dak Prescott needed help, but having his WR1 back and looking healthy certainly helps the sustainability of the monster season that he’s in the middle of orchestrating.

Streaks of 4 Straight Games With 3 TD Passes & 0 INT Since 2021

• Prescott (active)
• Joe Burrow (2024)
• Baker Mayfield (2024)
• Jared Goff (2024)
• Patrick Mahomes (2021)
• Prescott (2021)

When he’s seeing the field clearly, he’s on a short list of players that can get this hot. What is fueling his success are the aggressive passes. While asking him to sustain his current trajectory is almost impossible, this team was built around these shot plays, which naturally makes it more projectable than a random Geno Smith hot streak would be.

Throwing Past The Sticks

• 2024: 102 attempts, 47 completions, 960 yards, 7 TD, 8 INT
• 2025: 100 attempts, 62 completions, 1,184 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT

The Cowboys aren’t asking Prescott to move the chains; they are asking him to move mountains. This is the 2024 Bengals all over again, and we had no concerns about Joe Burrow that season, did we?

This isn’t a great matchup, obviously, but in a league structured for offenses, it’s not a good one for Denver either. Two vertical threats and a stable running game are a true “pick-your-position” roster construction, and until something changes, Prescott is to be viewed as the best pocket producer in the game.

Daniel Jones | IND (vs TEN)

After zero games with multiple touchdown passes in September, Daniel Jones is three-of-three in that regard this month, and a date with the Titans doesn’t exactly project as a bump in the road situation (72% complete with 27 rushing yards in the Week 3 meeting).

He led the Colts 6.9 yards per play over the weekend in Los Angeles against the Chargers, and that was without Josh Downs at his disposal.

Daniel Jones on when he thought the #Colts offense had this potential: pic.twitter.com/7D8UxPr4NC

— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) October 22, 2025

This offense is obviously centered around Jonathan Taylor, and that’s not going to change. His success is certainly a big reason why Jones has failed to exceed seven rushing yards in three of his past four games, but he is also what opens up all of the passing lanes (three-game win streak: 69.9% complete).

Decisive Danny projects as an efficient fantasy option both this week and moving forward, but it is worrisome that the Colts don’t need him to put up big numbers to find success. I’ve lowered his volume expectations this week, and that has him sliding down the ranks a bit. But on a positive note, it very well could be the last time we have to make such an adjustment, as a difficult schedule awaits Indy for the rest of the fantasy season.

Dillon Gabriel | CLE (at NE)

Dillon Gabriel completed 13 of 18 passes against the Dolphins last week in a game with less-than-favorable conditions.

That’s fine. This offense isn’t built for big numbers, and that’s going to continue to be the case, likely well beyond this season. If one tight end sits, I have no issue in considering the other as a fringe TE1, but outside of that, it’s Quinshon Judkins or bust.

Drake Maye | NE (vs CLE)

Drake Maye is weaponizing his legs, and the season-high 62 rushing yards last week are a sign of that, but they aren’t the only sign.

The respect that Tennessee was paying to his mobility helped Rhamondre Stevenson walk in for a five-yard score, and resulted in no help over the top on the Kayshon Boutte deep strike.

Everywhere you look, there are signs of growth. The touchdown to Austin Hooper last week was a “trust your teammate” throw that he probably wouldn’t have made 12 months ago. The coverage was scrambling and chasing his tight end, not knowing where the ball was, and Maye took advantage of it.

I like most of the schedule more than this week for Maye’s ceiling potential: give me offenses that have a chance to press him. Cleveland obviously doesn’t offer that, and that’s why he’s not in the top tier this week, but he deserves to be in that conversation when the game environment works in his favor.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at LAC)

J.J. McCarthy suffered a high-ankle sprain back in Week 2 and was reported to be a six-week injury.

According to Adam Schefter, nothing has changed on that front, so this week is another TBD situation. However, we are operating under the assumption that he’s currently on the wrong side of questionable.

He showed well late in Week 1, his first action as an NFL starter, but McCarthy struggled before and in Week 2 before getting injured. He’s the future of the quarterback position in Minnesota and might even be a future fantasy asset, but the future is not now.

If you want to circle back to this conversation in December, we can. By then, we will have more data points and a few favorable spots on tap (Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants in Weeks 15-17). I’m not turning out the light on McCarthy, seeing his stock increase as this season wears on, though we do need to see it before we waste time getting excited about that favorable late-season run.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs NYG)

Jalen Hurts played a game as if he rostered himself in fantasy, and that’s what we love to see.

There was an early pick-six, which raised game-script concerns, but the Vikings battled, which helped all parties involved.

Hurts threw for a season high of 326 yards, his third straight contest with at least 280. The numbers are one thing, but the “how” behind them was what had a stupid grin on my face.

• 68.4% completions
• 73.9% targets
• 93.3% receiving yards

Those are the combined shares of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown in Week 7. That’s how it’s done.

We aren’t under the assumption that Hurts is going to be Joe Flacco and fire 45+ passes, but if the passes he does throw are aimed at his top two targets, then he’s in the conversation for the best in the game at the position.

He’ll be awfully popular in the DFS streets this week (six teams on a bye, not to mention Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts doing battle off the main slate), and I’m not sure that’s wrong.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (at PHI)

It wasn’t a work of art last week (45.5% complete with a crippling injury), but fantasy box scores don’t have pictures.

• 283 pass yards
• 3 pass TDs
• 11 rush yards
• 1 rush TD

That box score will work every week when playing anyone, so it certainly works against the Broncos in Denver.

Jaxson Dart is a very raw prospect, and the weaknesses are predictable. There are weekly decision-making issues, and his passer rating is 99.2% higher when not pressured than when kept clean (league average: 55.6%).

But we aren’t asking for perfection as much as we are asking for confidence, and Dart has that in spades. We saw his eighth pass of last week go for a 44-yard TD to a wide-open Daniel Bellinger, a play made possible by his mobility.

The Broncos are great, but even the most disciplined unit eventually collapses.

I don’t think Dart is matchup-proof, but he showed well two weeks ago in this spot (195 pass yards, TD, 58 rush yards, TD) and should never be counted out.

That said, I do think he benefited from a game script that I don’t expect to be repeated in the first game against the Birds, and that is why Dart sits just outside of my top 12 this week for Week 8.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (at KC)

This hamstring injury is a worry, given how Jayden Daniels makes his fantasy bones.

The apparent limitations that it could put on his rushing production are there, but let’s not rule out the fact that he has a 108.3 career passer rating when outside of the pocket.

I remain bullish on this offense as a whole for when your chips are in the middle of the table in December. Still, with all of the injuries in this matchup, I’m not sure this would have been anything better than an average offense in Week 8, even if Daniels were to have been ruled active.

I’m adding a QB off the waiver wire (Joe Flacco or Michael Penix, assuming health) instead of picking up Marcus Mariota in a brutal spot.

Joe Flacco | CIN (vs NYJ)

Playing quarterback is a complicated gig … until it’s not.

In his two starts with the Bengals, Joe Flacco has funneled 62.4% of his targets to his top two receivers, and guess what?

• Five touchdowns
• Zero interceptions
• 51 points scored (he joined a team that had lost three straight with a total of 37 points)

Eat your vegetables, and you get sick less often. Get sleep and you have more energy. Target a pair of monster receivers and … well, you get the picture. Flacco’s pocket dependency is a hindrance in today’s game, though. If you took a snapshot of the leaderboard after Thursday night, you would have noticed something funny.

After that game, there were two QBs with 45+ pass attempts this season for a single team: Flacco as a Brown and Flacco as a Bengal.

The best way to overcome a lack of versatility is with extreme volume and talented teammates. Flacco has both right now, and that makes him at least an option for those looking to stream.

The apparent concern is the opponent’s buy-in. Rodgers and the Steelers got caught up in a shootout last week because they have enough offensive talent to entertain such a game state.

To put it bluntly, the Jets do not. Joe Cool was a run-of-the-mill QB in Week 6 against the Packers despite the volume (219 yards and two TDs), and I think that’s closer to what we get this week than the 342-3 he posted in Week 7.

That has some utility in a week that is missing Goff, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, and Trevor Lawrence, but this isn’t a weekly winning profile in my eyes.

Jordan Love | GB (at PIT)

With a spike in completion percentage, TD/INT rate, and a willingness to move the chains with his legs, Jordan Love is making the Packers brass happy.

With one finish this season better than QB11, he’s not really doing that for his fantasy managers.

That’s a tough combination. This is a team that wants to win with Josh Jacobs and the defense, something they are very capable of doing.

Joe Flacco performed in this matchup last week, and Dillon Gabriel is the only QB Pittsburgh has held under 19 fantasy points over the past month. I think we are looking at a narrow range of outcomes for Love (under 20 completions in five of six games), and in the right spot, that’s helpful, but because so many QBs carry higher ceilings, I couldn’t get Love higher than QB10 for this upcoming weekend.

Josh Allen | BUF (at CAR)

With the bye week to catch our breaths, I think we can all relax.

Following the Week 6 loss to the Falcons, media coverage focused mainly on potential regression from Josh Allen.

With four interceptions in a three-game stretch, no shortage of pundits were speculating about whether the growth we saw earlier this season from the reigning MVP was a smokescreen if this risk-taking version of Allen is what we will get moving forward.

First of all, I think that’s insane.

Second of all, I don’t think fantasy managers care.

A reckless version of Allen may open up the range of outcomes for him, but the ceiling remains elite. But I think the interception run is the outlier, not the norm.

Before the three weeks pre-bye, Allen had been picked off twice in 13 games (including playoffs), and I think that’s the version we’ll see for the rest of 2025.

Allen has a trio of top-7 finishes at the position this season and should very much be considered a Tier 1 option the rest of the way (and maybe for the rest of the decade). He’ll use the bye week to regroup and should be ready to carry your fantasy team in the way he was in September.

Your selection of Allen this summer was a strong one, and I fully expect him to remind your leaguemates of that over the next month.

Justin Fields | NYJ (at CIN)

At this point, you know what you’re getting with Justin Fields.

And so do the Jets, so the fact that they refused to name a starter to open the week should tell you all you need to know. And now, we know Fields is starting.

Fields was benched for the second half last week and has now finished three games this season with double-digit pass attempts and under 50 passing yards.

That’s hard to do in today’s era of football.

This is an interesting math project. Should he start? Where do we draw the line when it comes to how much air a bad defense can put in the tires of a bad quarterback?

READ MORE: Fantasy Football Cut List Week 8: TreVeyon Henderson, Justin Fields, Jerry Jeudy, and Others

I understand it’s the Bengals, but with Garrett Wilson’s status TBD at best and a mid-game benching in the range of outcomes, I can’t imagine going this direction in a league I care about.

Would I hold? I would. We’ve seen the upside, and he’s got a terrible defense on tap: it takes him like four plays to remind us of the value of his legs, and if he puts on a show, New York probably commits to him.

But playing him this week? I’d struggle to sleep with that penciled in.

Justin Herbert | LAC (vs MIN)

The game script got completely away from Los Angeles last week, and that was golden for owners of Justin Herbert (420 passing yards on 55 attempts to go along with 31 yards on the ground).

You obviously can’t rely on that sort of game weekly, but Jim Harbaugh continues to lean into this high pass rate (38+ attempts in four of his past five), and we have to assume it stays this way with the running backs struggling to impact the game much on the ground.

The comfort in the system looks better and better on Herbert with each passing week. In September, he completed 39.2% of his pressured passes with a 50.2 passer rating, since he’s at 52.5% and 94.7.

That type of growth comes with confidence and allows him to project well in this spot. He has three receivers that he very much trusts, and the sudden usage of Oronde Gadsden is just another reason to like Herbert as a top-5 QB this week and for the rest of the season.

Kirk Cousins | ATL (vs MIA)

Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter Schefter, Kirk Cousins is expected to get the start on Sunday. The veteran draws a plus-matchup, but considering that the veteran cleared 12.5 fantasy points in just three of his past 13 starts, there’s not much utility in anything but two-QB leagues.

Drake London managers should feel fine about their star receiver’s production, and the same goes for those with Bijan Robinson. The fringe pieces don’t see their value change much, either, given the low level at which Michael Penix Jr. was playing.

Mac Jones | SF (at HOU)

Mac Jones has won four of his five starts for the 49ers and is doing everything they need while they await the return of Brock Purdy.

Everything “they” need and everything “we” need are two entirely different ball games.

Spencer Rattler is averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game and is someone you’d never consider: Jones has been held under that figure in three of his past four.

It’s not all his fault. San Francisco has dealt with pass catcher injuries all season long and operated a run-centric plan in Week 7, but facts are facts. Kyle Shanahan is a master of playing to strengths, so it should be illuminating that Jones hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in consecutive games (65 attempts).

Marcus Mariota | WAS (at KC)

Marcus Mariota is averaging one rush attempt for every 3.5 completions this season, and that’s what has the potential to make him interesting whenever he gets the call.

I’m passing if at all possible on Monday night.

Only once has a QB scored 17 fantasy points against the Chiefs since Week 1 and Mariota with a group of dinged up pass catchers doesn’t exactly profile as the type to break that mold.

In his last start, Mariota spread the ball around, targeting seven different players multiple times despite throwing just 27 passes. Fading players opposing Kansas City is good practice as it is, and that train of thought is magnified for a limited player like this trying to navigate various injuries.

Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs MIA)

A bone bruise on his foot has saddled Penix with a day-to-day designation — hopefully you’re not losing sleep over it. The second-year QB has just one multi-TD pass effort this season, and given that it is very possible that Atlanta asks him to do very little in a game they should control, it’s hard to find much upside in this profile.

The 21 rushing yards in Week 1 against the Bucs piqued my interest, but with just 22 since, it’s become obvious that was nothing more than a flash in the pan.

Penix is concentrating his targets at a high level, so we want him in there for our Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts shares, but he himself offers little of interest in the fantasy space.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs WAS)

He came, he saw, he conquered.

Patrick Mahomes didn’t take a snap in the fourth quarter, but he didn’t need to. He’s thrown at least three touchdown passes in three of his past four games and has reached 28 rushing yards in five of seven contests this season.

After years of a conservative script, Andy Reid is back in the business of wanting #15 to put up monster numbers, and so it shall be done.

Rashee Rice looked like Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy was making plays, and Travis Kelce picked apart zone coverage schemes.

Oh, did I not mention that the running game showed signs of life? That Tyquan Thornton continues to stretch the field with vertical routes or that Hollywood Brown found the end zone?

I’m not sure what you’re supposed to take away here. No matter what you do, Mahomes is a surefire starter in all formats and is a real threat to lead the position in scoring for the remainder of the season.

Spencer Rattler | NO (vs TB)

Spencer Rattler had his second multi-pass TD game of the season in Chicago over the weekend, but he sucked all of the value out of his good plays with three interceptions and his second-lowest rushing total of the season.

He’s good about funneling targets in the places that we want, and that’s nice to see, but there’s essentially no upside in this spot against a Bucs defense that can create chaos (Rattler has been blitzed 39 times over the past five weeks and hasn’t punished opposing defenses with a single TD toss in those spots).

Tyler Huntley | BAL (vs CHI)

Add Tyler Huntley to the growing list of unexpected Week 8 starters. It’s bad enough we have Bye-mageddon. Apparently, we also have the injury apocalypse. Huntley is making his first start of the season after the Ravens inexplicably thought Cooper Rush, who is the polar opposite of Lamar Jackson, was the better backup. Huntley has experience in the system and has won games for them before.

With that said, fantasy managers should not be looking to the Pro Bowl QB as a one-week fill-in (yes, Huntley made a Pro Bowl). He started four games for the Dolphins last season and scored more than 11.8 fantasy points just once. He did make three starts and two relief appearances for an injured Jackson in 2022 and averaged 31.8 rushing yards per game. Huntley won’t get you zero because of his mobility, but he’s probably not throwing for more than 175 yards. Look elsewhere for a streamer.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at ATL)

Consecutive three-interception games aren’t ideal in any circumstance, but if this were a Jameis Winston all-or-nothing game plan, I’d be willing to swallow the risk for the reward.

But it’s not.

Tua Tagovailoa has posted a sub-7.0 aDOT in both of those dreadful games, and without much in the way of playmakers, the ceiling outcome isn’t nearly enough to outweigh the tremendous risk.

You could try to sell me on the weatherproof nature of this game, but there weren’t any issues in Week 6 at Los Angeles (three interceptions) or in the season opener at Indianapolis (114 passing yards and two interceptions).

Tagovailoa shouldn’t be starting for you in anything but two-QB formats where you’re locked into him without any sort of ability to move off of it — he might not be the man in Miami for long, even with a contract that extends through the 2028 season.

Not. Ideal.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at LAC)

Aaron Jones was eligible to be activated off of IR last weekend, but the hamstring continues to plague the veteran, and the specifics surrounding his return remain cloudy. His return window opened on Tuesday afternoon, though that doesn’t include an exact plan.

On one hand, Jordan Mason hasn’t exactly stolen this role the way I thought he might (last three games: 3.77 yards per carry), and he failed to earn a single one of Carson Wentz’s 40 targeted passes in the loss to the Eagles.

On the other hand, we are 11 months clear of the last time Jones had a 20-yard run.

READ MORE: Aaron Jones Injury Update: What’s the Latest on the Vikings RB, and Will He Play in Week 8?

The moving piece here is the quarterback position. We think this team will lean toward J.J. McCarthy when given the green light, but who he is more comfortable with is unknown. Jones profiles as the pass catcher, and that holds value, though with an unproven quarterback, it’s hard to label that skill set as one that will elevate his floor every week.

For me, Jones is the type of running back that I’m happy to wait on. I’m not 100% sure Jones is a fantasy starter as it is, so I’m really not going this direction if his health is a question mark. If he proves he’s healthy and produces on my bench, I’ll live with it.

Alvin Kamara | NO (vs TB)

At this point, if you’re starting Alvin Kamara, it’s because you’re stubborn.

I’m stubborn to a fault, and even I’m not tempted by this Kamara profile based solely on the production from last season.

The veteran hasn’t run for 35 yards a game in October and hasn’t scored in any capacity since Week 1. The age curve is certainly part of it, but under a yard per carry over his past five games isn’t exactly helpful.

Kamara hasn’t been a plus-per-carry runner since 2020, and that means that a bet on him these days is a version of betting on Spencer Rattler.

Sorry, but I have better ways to spend my weeks.

The Bucs are more of a pass funnel, and that leaves the door open for Kamara to score 10 points as a pass catcher, but I’d rather not play that game. Not in this offensive environment.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs MIA)

If it weren’t for Christian McCaffrey existing, what Bijan Robinson is doing would be the topic of even more stories. He’s pacing to be the rare 5+ YPC and 5+ receptions per game player, proving himself as one of the most script-proof backs in recent memory.

Nothing against Rico Dowdle (32.4 PPR points against the Dolphins), Kimani Vidal (22.8), or Quinshon Judkins (26.4), but none of them are in the same zip code as Robinson. They all had their way with this fading franchise, and that puts Robinson in a position to do special things.

He’s my RB1 for Week 8, and if the Falcons want to make a statement for their best player, this could be a crowning moment on a historic season.

Braelon Allen | NYJ (at CIN)

A “pretty serious” knee injury landed Braelon Allen on IR ahead of Week 5, and it’s generally believed that we are looking at an absence that extends well beyond the required four weeks.

Isaiah Davis is the new Breece Hall handcuff to make sure is rostered, though his path to value hinges fully on the health of RB1. That said, if Hall were to go down, the Jets have December dates with the Dolphins and Saints, matchups that will require us to start whoever is atop this depth chart then.

Brashard Smith | KC (vs WAS)

It’s not like we’ve seen this Reid system elevate a Round 7 running back before, right?

Brashard Smith looks like he has some juice, though I would caution against reading too much into the Week 7 box score, as he was featured in the fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes wearing a baseball cap.

Before last week, Smith had more catches (nine) than carries (eight). He was hardly used during his time at Miami, and when he was, it was in a third-down type of role (69 catches against 18 rushes). That said, he was a bell cow during his final collegiate season, running 235 times and catching 39 passes last season with SMU.

I’m less worried about what he can do at this level; I’m sold on the film, but the opportunity count. Isiah Pacheco is certainly running hard enough to make us think he is now fully healthy, and Kareem Hunt is a veteran who is trusted at a high level.

If he’s on your waiver wire, I’d make the add. I prefer him to a player like Ollie Gordon: someone who might be closer to the top of his depth chart but projects to be limited by his surroundings, even if given the lead role.

Breece Hall | NYJ (at CIN)

There are a lot of moving pieces for the Jets, and very few of them have a positive note for Breece Hall.

I take that back: he’s a trade candidate and that’s a positive.

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While a part of this team, I’m not sure what you want him to do. His PPR points per touch are down 20% from a season ago and, thanks in large part to a lack of offensive versatility, doesn’t have a touch gaining more than eight yards in consecutive games.

If you want to cry “tough matchups,” fine. You do that. I’m not sure this Jets team could hang 30 points on 11 of PFSN’s finest, and without a ceiling, the low floor (zero touchdowns this season and only one 25-yard touch) is concerning.

I do think this is his role for as long as he’s in town, but even that comes with some level of risk (Isaiah Davis handled New York’s second rushing attempt last week). You’re starting Hall most weeks because his path to 15+ touches is reasonably clear, and this week specifically because … #Bengals.

That said, it’s important to manage expectations moving forward unless he gets dealt. If that’s the case, there’s no telling how excited I’ll get.

Bucky Irving | TB (at NO)

Bucky Irving was ruled out well in advance of last week, and that’s not a great sign. The Bucs are aware of what Irving offers, so it stands that they will be cautious.

In a weird way, this is good for us. Having to replace a borderline first-round pick is a pain, but losing him mid-game because he rushed back is even worse. Tampa Bay goes on bye next week, and thanks to their success up to this point, it makes sense that they’ve ruled him out for this game with an eye on the future.

Tampa Bay goes on bye next week, and with their record being what it is, it wouldn’t shock me if the team targets Week 10 as a return date.

You want him back into his bell cow role, not for this meeting with the Saints, but for his next one, a part of a very light December schedule (Saints-Falcons-Panthers-Dolphins).

Cam Skattebo | NYG (at PHI)

The first receiving touchdown of Cam Skattebo’s career came last week in Denver, and it showcased some precision to go with the reckless power that we’ve come to know and love from the rookie.

He continues to hold the lead role and catch multiple passes every week, elevating his floor in a way that most rankings outside my top 10 at the position don’t.

He’s more of a grinder than a big-play threat (121 touches this season and not one of them has picked up 25 yards), but with the proven versatility, there’s no such thing as a real bad spot for him.

Every Cam Skattebo run is an adventure #RTDB #NYGiants pic.twitter.com/zoKY0ZvPl4

— Run The Damn Ball (@Run_TheDamnBaII) October 22, 2025

On the surface, it’d be easy to argue that if such a spot existed, the Eagles would be it — a solid defense with an offense that can chew up the clock while putting points on the board.

That sure wasn’t the case two weeks ago when Skattebo racked up 110 yards and scored three times in the upset win on Thursday night.

I don’t expect him to run that hot again (six red zone touches and a 100% success rate), but in this era of committees, I find it almost impossible to knock him out of my top 15.

Chase Brown | CIN (vs NYJ)

I’m going to stop well short of saying that Chase Brown was unlocked on Thursday night, but with 108 yards on 11 carries (four games prior: 112 yards on 37 carries) against the Steelers, we certainly got the production we’ve been waiting for.

Does it sustain?

Not in the way you’re hoping, at least not for me.

He can be a viable RB2, but I don’t think there’s a ton of upside to chase. Even in the big effort last week, he averaged less than a yard per carry before contact and came up short of a dozen rush attempts for a fourth straight game.

The latter wouldn’t scare me as much if this offense looked the way it did last season (22.5 receiving yards per game), but it doesn’t.

I understand we are looking at small samples across three quarterbacks, but he has just one game with as many receiving yards as he averaged last season. If this team is truly going to embrace a high PROE plan, the floor is too low to consider Brown a top-15 player at the position moving forward.

He’s a talented RB whose role, even with the recent spike in Samaje Perine’s usage, is strong enough to merit a spot in our lineups. I’m OK with that evaluation, but I’d caution against using last week as a way to hop back on your preseason notion that this is a back with top 10 potential.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at KC)

The nagging calf injury didn’t stop Chris Rodriguez from taking the field against the Cowboys last week, and he cashed in a short carry, but with eight touches in October, there’s no reason to look this way.

This isn’t a backfield I want to handcuff, and even if it was, we aren’t sure of what the touch distribution would be between Jeremy McNichols and Rodriguez.

There are going to be weeks where he falls into the end zone, like last, but there aren’t going to be weeks where you’re seriously considering flexing him, so why hold?

Christian McCaffrey | SF (at HOU)

After six straight games of posting gain rates under 85%, Christian McCaffrey punched the Falcons in the mouth for 129 yards on the ground with a 91.7% gain rate.

He was already the most valuable running back in the game, and now he’s unlocking efficiency?

You drafted the CMC, ignoring some health risks and focusing on the ceiling outcomes.

You’re hitting the ceiling every week (7+ targets in every game and 17+ carries in five straight), and as long as he stays on the field, you won the first round of your draft this summer.

That’s hard to do: now you just have to finish the job!

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs BUF)

Chuba Hubbard returned from injury and was the starting back, but he really didn’t do anything to earn that label, and that could result in a role shift as soon as this week.

Week 7 Usage

• Hubbard: 50% snap share, 7.5 PPR points, 2.2 yards per carry
• Rico Dowdle: 42.9% snap share, 10.6 PPR points, 4.6 yards per carry

He made the most of a dump-off pass and picked up 26 yards, easily his most impactful play of the afternoon. Hubbard picked up yardage on just 71.4% of his carries, the second-worst showing of his career for a game that had at least the 14 carries he recorded on Sunday.

This backfield is playing out how I expect Minnesota’s to when Jones returns: some initial deference to the incumbent starter, but a gradual lean to the more explosive player.

With six teams on a bye, you’re likely low on other options. Hubbard is better than anything still on your waiver wire, so if you’re stuck, you’re stuck. I’m more cautious about expectations for the remainder of the season.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (at BAL)

That’s consecutive games north of 100 rushing yards for D’Andre Swift, and with him averaging 3+ yards both before AND after contact in each of those games, I tend to buy what he’s selling us lately.

I was discouraged early by Kyle Monangai getting work on the first drive (including a 14-yard carry) and Roschon Johnson’s number being called on a red zone play, but zoom out, and there’s very little to complain about.

• 20 touches
• 7 red zone touches
• 10+ yards on 26.5% of his carries

Ben Johnson is leaving his imprint on this offense, and I expect things to only get better with time. This is trending toward a career year for Swift, and while the Ravens figure to be in better shape after their bye, I’m not worried about this matchup enough to downgrade Chicago’s lead back in a significant way.

The reflex is to sell a running back after a few good games, but with the bye in the rearview and my lack of concern over the secondary threats, I’m perfectly content to hold my Swift shares for the remainder of this season.

De’Von Achane | MIA (at ATL)

If you told me blindly that, entering a week, my running back would produce 44.7% of his team’s net yards and account for all of their touchdowns, I’d spend the majority of my time that week finding out creative ways to take out loans to bet on said player.

Unless he’s a Dolphin.

Miami was inept on the offensive end for essentially all 60 minutes in Cleveland last week. Achane continues to prove himself as a top-shelf talent, and that allowed him to turn 16 touches into 98 yards, but with this team rarely approaching scoring position, there’s only so much even a gifted running back can do.

Maybe the fast track of Atlanta will help this week, but the down Achane weeks rarely have anything to do with Achane. The single-play upside means you have a starter in all formats, but entering the season, I thought Miami’s lead man was on the short list of players that could lead the position in scoring this season.

He’s not. He’s not close.

Derrick Henry | BAL (vs CHI)

We got a tease before the buy, and now, with Jackson potentially back, we might be all the way back. Against the Rams in Week 6, Derrick Henry had one more carry of 5+ yards than he had in the month prior, and the spread suggests we are back to preseason Ravens with QB1 under center.

I’m in.

The volume came back before the buy because the Ravens were competitive, and if they are operating from a position of power, a vintage performance against the Bears is very much within the range of outcomes.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

The King has gone three straight games without a 15+ yard run, and I can’t imagine I’m alone in thinking that streak ends in a major way. Henry is my RB3 this week and could be a hinge player in DFS contests, with six teams on bye and ownership likely to gravitate toward the other two Tier 1 RBs on the main slate.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (at NE)

Dylan Sampson made waves with the big Week 1 performance against the Bengals, but Quinshon Judkins has established himself as one of the true bell cows in the sport, thus leaving Sampson to come up short of a 20% snap share in five straight games.

The fact that he recorded just four touches in a weather-impacted Week 7 25-point win is a red flag at the highest of levels. Hopefully, you didn’t need to see that, but now that you have, this player doesn’t need to be rostered in any format.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs WAS)

The Chiefs wasted little time in systematically destroying the Raiders, so it really was just a matter of who Reid wanted to feed.

He elected to get Rice rolling in his season debut.

That’s not to say that the Pacheco stat line was an issue. He scored and touched the ball 16 times, something that I think is about the ceiling of expectations in any given week. But it was Rice with the touchdowns, and that stood in the way of Pacheco having a big day.

The snap share continues to trend in the right direction, though Brashard Smith, a player who garnered some Pacheco comparisons, continues to impress on the opportunities he’s given.

It appears clear that Pacheco is the lead backfield, but it is unclear how much usage this team wants to give to a single RB. All three of the primary runners got their hands on the ball on the first drive, and if Kansas City truly is that indifferent as to who is getting those opportunities, the weekly floor is terrifying.

I’ve been impressed with Pacheco’s health and will continue to rank him as an RB2, though the risk needs to be acknowledged as you build out your lineups.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (vs DAL)

For the second time this season, J.K. Dobbins gained yardage on every one of his carries as he continued to run hard.

And yet, I’m not sold.

Denver doesn’t call his number too often in scoring situations (2.1 red zone touches per game for a bell cow isn’t impressive) and without versatility (22 receiving yards this season), there’s more floor than ceiling in this profile.

He’s basically 2025 Derrick Henry without 2025 Derrick Henry expectations, and that’s not a compliment.

Dobbins is currently surviving on volume, and that’s enough to make him an RB2 in good spots like this, but this feels like a house of cards waiting to be blown in.

What if Sean Payton elects to give RJ Harvey more work? What if Nix leans into his athleticism more like he did last week?

I’m not sure there’s room for growth, and I know there is room for his production to backtrack.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (at KC)

It would appear that the Jacory Croskey-Merritt profile is working on borrowed time.

He’s had two impressive games. In the other five, he’s produced 24.6% below expectations and is averaging just 0.58 points per touch, a level of inefficiency that requires elite volume to be an ordinary back.

If Jayden Daniels isn’t himself, this offense as a whole has less upside, and their RB1 can’t handle a ding like that (in the five iffy games, he has a total of four red zone touches). The Chiefs haven’t allowed a running back to reach even 9.0 PPR points so far in October (opponents: Jaguars, Lions, and Raiders), a trend that I’m not sure changes this week.

Call him what you want — I’m not calling him a top-20 running back in a week when 18.8% of the league isn’t in action.

James Cook | BUF (at CAR)

There are levels to this.

James Cook is fantastic. He has more touchdowns than games played since the beginning of last season and has developed his skill set around the strengths of his MVP quarterback.

But he’s not “elite.”

During this two-game skid, he’s totaled 136 touchdown-less yards. He’s failed to catch a pass in both of those games, and after having a 25+ yard gain in three straight to open the season, he’s now gone three straight without a touch, picking up more than 15 yards.

Cook is a weekly starter and an easy top 10 player at the position. But as good as he is, this is a good reminder of just how valuable the top few names at each position are.

Javonte Williams | DAL (at DEN)

If we are picking nits, Javonte Williams has turned 14 targets over the past three weeks into 11 receiving yards.

That’s all I got.

Williams has picked up 10+ yards on over 10% of his carries in five of his past six games and continues to get plenty of work in scoring situations (multiple red zone touches in every game this season, 3+ in four straight).

There’s no competition to speak of, and, to be honest, Williams’s runs are Dallas’s best line of defense. They allow them to sustain drives and keep the opposition off the field, something this team very much needs to succeed.

Remove a blitz that left Denver vulnerable to a gash run (31-yard run by Tyron Tracy), and they held a reasonable Giants ground game to 88 yards on 31 carries last week. Williams gets dinged because of the matchup, but it’s not nearly enough to matter: you’re playing him in all formats.

Jaydon Blue | DAL (at DEN)

Jaydon Blue doubled his season carry total last week against the Commanders and earned his first professional target, but his usage was more to get Javonte Williams a breather than a chance to carve out his own niche.

The rookie isn’t a must-hold, but he’s also not a must-cut. My instinct says that if Williams were to go down, this offense would double- and triple-down on the passing game rather than give Blue the vacated volume.

That said, he’s still just one injury away from the lead role in an offense that needs to put points on the board to keep this team competitive.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs GB)

Kaleb Johnson didn’t touch the field on Thursday night, and Jaylen Warren held a 4-to-1 touch edge over Kenneth Gainwell. I think any concerns about whose backfield this is when fully healthy are gone.

I’ll complain as much as anyone about the structure of this Pittsburgh offense, but it fits Warren, and that’s all that matters (15+ expected PPR points in three of his past four games, the exception being his first game back from injury).

With a 15+ yard touch in four of five games this season, he’s the one Steeler I trust to offer consistent upside. Sadly, he doesn’t get to face the Steelers every week.

Week 7 Rushing Profile

• 2.2 yards per carry before contact (season-high)
• 100% gain rate (first six weeks: 77.8%)
• 25% 10+ yard gain rate (first six weeks: 7.4%)

The Packers offer a much different challenge, but not nearly enough to put Warren’s status as a lineup lock in jeopardy. He’s hauled in 17-of-19 targets this season as part of an overly conservative offense that is happy to supplement some of his carries with checkdowns and designed quick hitters.

Warren is a top 15 running back for me this week and checks in as such for the remainder of this fantasy season as well.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at KC)

Quality over quantity.

Jeremy McNichols played 21 snaps and ran 13 routes, not impressive usage, but not all that far off from what bell cow Jacory Croskey-Meeritt tallied in Dallas (33 and 16, respectively).

The 10-touch difference, however, is all we truly care about. It’s clear the Commanders trust JCM to carry the mail, and with McNichols more slotted as an “in case of emergency” option in the pass game, there’s no real reason to hold.

Chris Rodriguez looms, and he’s actually the reason I don’t think McNichols is worth stashing. The idea of a handcuff is fine this time of year, but I’m not confident that McNichols would walk into a 13-16 touch role even if he were elevated to cover an injury.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs TEN)

If Taylor can repeat the 118 yards of offense that he had against these Titans back in Week 3, he will already be at 1,000 yards from scrimmage.

Add in the double-digit rushing scores, and he will have done something before Halloween that only 11 backs (one of whom was him) accomplished during the entirety of the 2021 season.

Taylor has more 10+ yard runs than attempts that have failed to gain yardage and has five more catches on six fewer targets than he had all of last season (14 games). His combination of power and speed is rare, and with this offense clicking on all cylinders (109 points scored during this three-game winning streak), I’m not sure what defenses are supposed to do.

The schedule will toughen a bit down the stretch, but with two home games to close the fantasy playoffs, it’s not hard to see JT being a fantasy MVP for title teams this winter.

Jordan Mason | MIN (at LAC)

Mason took advantage of Jones being sidelined for another week, scoring for the fourth time in as many games.

That said, he’s not exactly forcing his way into an extended role the way we saw Rico Dowdle do in Carolina following the Hubbard injury (one game with a 20-yard gain this season). I have him ranked ahead of Jones for the rest of the season and am defaulting to that position until proven otherwise, but should the veteran return, my ranking of Mason will fall from RB2 to a mediocre flex.

I’m aware that the Bolts were picked apart by Taylor last week.

Minnesota doesn’t have a Taylor on their roster.

Josh Jacobs | GB (at PIT)

Josh Jacobs now has 50+ rushing yards and multiple rushing scores in three straight games, a streak that, since the beginning of 2004, has only been topped by the great LaDainian Tomlinson (2006).

Not bad for a player who popped up on the injury report late in the process last week with what the team labeled as “illness/calf”.

Things haven’t always been easy for Green Bay this season, but they are in position to compete for an NFC title, and their bell cow back is the driving force behind the offense.

He’s as good a bet for 20+ touches as anyone this side of Christian McCaffrey, and with an 80% catch rate, there’s a level of trust that he has on all downs.

Would I like to see the 3.7 yards-per-carry trend rise? I would, but with the volume and elite conversion rate in scoring situations, I’m not complaining.

Pittsburgh hasn’t faced a rushing attack like this, so I’m not too scared of their reasonable run-stuffing numbers to date. Jacobs isn’t a CMC or Robinson in terms of ceiling output, but I’d argue that his floor is among the five best at the position, and that has him sitting in my top 5 for this week.

Kareem Hunt | KC (vs WAS)

Kareem Hunt seems to be trending in the wrong direction for this offense, and that could make him a fantasy roster casualty with time.

We aren’t there yet, but that’s more a product of me wanting to hold onto any shares of this explosive unit than anything. Hunt has seen his carry count decrease in every game this month and hasn’t earned multiple targets in this pass-centric scheme since Week 1.

Pacheco certainly looks healthy, and that is where Kansas City is leaning. Rookie Braxton Smith has also looked good in his limited action. While I’m not reading into the garbage-time production of last week, it’s easy to see a path where Reid tests the limitations of the seventh-round pick in an effort to gain a complete understanding of what he has for the playoffs.

He knows what he has in Hunt. He has a veteran who may not make the spectacular play, but he’ll do what is expected of him. That holds value in real life, but not much in the fantasy space.

Hunt sits easily outside of my top 30 at the position this week, living in the space of the handcuff RBs like Kenneth Gainwell and Isaiah Pacheco.

Kendre Miller | NO (vs TB)

Kendre Miller showed some glimpses of potential in his third NFL season, but the 23-year-old suffered a torn ACL against the Bears over the weekend and thus has his attention turned to next season.

Devin Neal is technically the next man up in this backfield, but the most likely result of this injury is a few more looks for Alvin Kamara and/or Taysom Hill.

In a perfect world, you’re not invested in this rushing attack.

Miller can be dropped in all redraft formats — a bummer for those holding out hope for a trade of Kamara to open up sneaky value in the second half of this season.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (vs GB)

Kenneth Gainwell was a week winner in Dublin a few weeks back with Jaylen Warren on the shelf, but it was obvious before the injury — and has been since the RB1 returned — that Arthur Smith is not labeling this a committee.

Warren handled 16 of the 19 RB carries in the upset loss to the Bengals on Thursday night and finished the evening as Pittsburgh’s third leading receiver. This isn’t an explosive offense that can support multiple backs on any consistent basis, thus relegating Gainwell to true handcuff status.

There’s value in holding onto him for now, if for no other reason than Pittsburgh has a few soft matchups heading into the fantasy playoffs. If you feel the roster crunch, I’d target the manager with Warren rostered and see what price is willing to be paid: I can’t imagine it’ll be much, but it should be better than what you can find on your waiver wire.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (vs MIN)

Kimani Vidal clearly wasn’t the asset last week against the Colts as he was against the Dolphins the week prior: he’s likely to settle somewhere of the middle value wise and I suspect that’s what we see on Thursday night.

Hassan Haskins has been ruled out, and that’s obviously helpful. Joe Alt taking part in practice in a limited fashion this week could help cure the efficiency woes from a week ago (nine carries for 20 yards,) and the blitz-happy nature of the Vikings (highest blitz rate since the beginning of 2023) gives Vidal a chance to see his 4-5 targets again.

The floor is there because of his role. Even if the ceiling probably isn’t near what we saw in Week 5, numbers that were as much matchup-driven as anything, he’s a good bet for double-digit PPR points, and in a week like this, that’ll work!

Nick Chubb | HOU (vs SF)

It’s been a good run for Nick Chubb, but his time on fantasy rosters this season is coming to an end.

Woody Marks out-snapped him 42-18 on Monday night, and this just isn’t the situation for his profile.

Houston struggles to block, and outside of two instances this season where the defense dialed up a blitz and Chubb happened to be designed a carry in the single gap they had (TDs of 25 and 27 yards), this year has been a slog for the 29-year-old (3.49 yards per carry without those two runs).

The Texans are motivated to see what they have in Marks, making this less a committee and more a bell-cow situation. Reasonable minds can disagree if the lead job behind this offensive line is worth anything in the first place, but it’s pretty clear that the job is trending away from Chubb.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (at ATL)

At this point, I don’t think we can label Ollie Gordon as a great handcuff stash.

Not because the job isn’t his, but because the job might not matter.

Achane’s production is more the product of his individual greatness than the role itself. This offense was a disaster for much of Sunday, and there doesn’t appear to be a short-term answer.

Volume is valuable until it’s not. It would appear that we’ve crossed that threshold in Miami, and that has me looking for upside receivers instead of holding a back like Gordon, who needs an injury to have a prayer at maybe being a low-end flex.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (at NE)

Quinshon Judkins reminds me of pre-injury Pacheco in that he simply lives for contact and is confident that, over the course of 60 minutes, he’s going to come out on top.

More often than not, he’s right.

For the season, he ranked fourth among the 40 qualified running backs in yards gained per carry after contact, trailing only Robinson, Williams, and Achane. He found the end zone three times last week against the Dolphins, and on two of those occurrences, Cleveland just snapped him the ball directly.

The combination of hard-nosed running and open-field fluidity is rare. His 46-yard TD sprint in the second quarter last week was his fourth run of 30+, putting him on an impressive list of players to do that in their first six career games since 2000.

The others: Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Achane, and Adrian Peterson.

He gets a tough task this weekend against a Patriots front that hasn’t allowed a running back to clear 13.1 PPR points since Week 2. They are going to sell out to stop this running game, and that scares me off of Judkins in DFS formats, as we haven’t seen Dillon Gabriel connect with him a single time over the past two weeks.

In season-long formats, you’re content with the volume and taking your chances on the Browns getting close to the end zone. If they do, it’s a heavy dosage of their rookie back, and that gives you the RB2 production you’re looking for.

Rachaad White | TB (at NO)

It’s been very clear that the Buccaneers view Rachaad White as their RB2, a role that is getting plenty of work with Bucky Irving sidelined.

It’s also obvious that White is the limited player he has been in the past. In his three games this month, none of his 41 carries have picked up more than 12 yards (3.5 yards per carry), but he’s caught 11-of-13 targets, and that’s enough for PPR managers.

With Irving set to miss at least one more game, White again slides into the “you don’t have to watch it, but you have to play it” RB2 tier. It’s rarely fun, and I’m generally more in on White in coin flip/underdog spots, but the 14-20 touch role is pretty tough to ignore on a week like this, schedule-wise.

Ray Davis | BUF (at CAR)

Ray Davis found the end zone in Week 6 against the Falcons on one of his two touches.

That last number worries me far more than the random touchdown does to encourage me. The second-year back has totaled just 16 touches this season, and James Cook has run incredibly well for the past 18 months: Davis holds flex-contingent value, but he’s not Tyler Allgeier, where you could reasonably plug him into your lineup in a tough spot.

If that’s your situation, I’d rather take a shot on any of the low-owned receivers in this game: Davis is a player that makes sense for deep teams to hold, not for teams pushing for short-term wins.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs CLE)

The curious case of Rhamondre Stevenson appears to no longer be a case: he’s simply the lead back on a good offense, whether we like it or not.

He scored a walk-in touchdown in the third quarter as the Titans moved in fear of what Drake Maye was going to do, solidifying a strong day at the office. It was his 14th carry of the afternoon, 13 more than TreVeyon Henderson had at the moment.

Stevenson carried five times on the first drive, ripped off three runs of 8+ yards, and was on his way against one of the worst teams in the sport. He’s now set a season high in snap percentage in consecutive games, and with every win New England earns, the most likely status quo is the name of the game role-wise.

There are ball-security issues and a lack of explosion, but the Patriots have been shouting at us to believe the veteran is the bell cow in this offense, and we have no option left but to bend the knee.

Only time will tell if this is the right move for a team that is chasing playoff dreams, but this is the hand we are being dealt. Stevenson is an easy RB2 in a game that I expect the Patriots to control, and Henderson isn’t close to flex radars despite almost a fifth of the league sitting at home this week.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (vs BUF)

Hubbard returned and was the starter in name, but this was a split backfield that saw Rico Dowdle hold a pretty significant edge despite being stuffed on an early fourth-down attempt.

Week 7 Rushing Data

• Dowdle: 88.2% gain rate, 17.6% 10+ yard gain rate, 3.2 YPC after contact
• Hubbard: 71.4% gain rate, 7.1% 10+ yard gain rate, 2.1 YPC after contact

This is a committee situation as long as the coaching staff wants it to be, but the on-field production speaks for itself.

The argument could be made that Hubbard is still the right play. Despite an inferior game, he out-snapped Dowdle, and if the team calls his number again, a healthier version of him could have success against the fourth-worst EPA run defense against running backs this season.

But I’m siding with a dangerous thought: rational coaching. Dowdle shone in two pristine matchups with Hubbard on the shelf and looked better last week. I’ve got him assuming the Hubbard role from last week, in that he gets the first crack, and that might be all it takes.

I rank for mean outcomes, and that has Dowdle half a dozen spots ahead of Hubbard as an RB2 to his teammate’s flex status.

I’m not actively looking to start Panthers in this potential blowout spot, but it’s hard to be picky in a week like this, so if forced, give me Dowdle over Hubbard in Week 8.

RJ Harvey | DEN (vs DAL)

In the wild win over the Giants last week, Harvey scored.

He managed to turn six opportunities (carries-plus-targets) into two yards.

I’m not sure Sean Payton knows what he wants out of this backfield when it comes to the passing game (Dobbins, Tyler Badie, and Harvey all ran 14-18 routes), but he’s locked in when it comes to the traditional RB role (105 of 147 RB carries have gone to Dobbins).

This is a 5-2 football team and thus unlikely to make sweeping changes unless their hand is forced. Harvey isn’t off of Payton’s radar and would assume a top 20 ranking if Dobbins (active for 44 of a possible 74 games during his career) were to pick up an injury as the marathon of a season wears on.

Harvey is a very reasonable hold, even if, at the moment, there’s zero chance you’re tempted to flex him (seven or fewer touches in six of seven games).

Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs NYG)

Right now, at his current pace, Saquon Barkley needs to average a tick over 50 carries per week to repeat his rushing yardage total from 2024.

I think we can safely rule that one out and chalk one up for regression.

Other than fancy math, there are obvious reasons for his lack of success on the ground. His yards per carry before first contact have dipped from 2.64 a season ago to 0.87 this year, and I don’t care how much talent a player has; that sort of drop is going to come with production problems.

His red zone touch count is also down from 3.9 per game to 2.6, a less obvious hindrance, as you’d assume that with fewer home run plays, there would be more scoring chances in tight.

Not the case.

He’s running into loaded boxes slightly more often, and that certainly has something to do with it, but this is looking more like New York Saquon than anything.

• 2025 Profile: 90.9% of expected points, 0.49 points per carry, 19.0 touches per game
• 2021-23 Profile: 95.8% of expected points, 0.56 points per carry, 19.6 touches per game

That’s concerning, and if last week was an indicator of any kind, defenses are happy to make Jalen Hurts beat them through the air.

If he continues to do it at the rate he did over the weekend, maybe things loosen up and we get a top 5 RB the rest of the way. But as things stand right now, it’s hard to expect that sort of production to reemerge.

Barkley is one of the best in the game in terms of raw talent, so there are likely to be splash games. That said, I do think it’s fair to adjust your reference point: he’s a high-end RB2 on a week-to-week basis (when there aren’t six teams on a bye) more than he is a back who poses a real threat to crack the top spot at the position.

He’s still a lineup lock, and this offense remains good enough to elevate him even if the efficiency isn’t close to what we had hoped. But if you’re circling the trade machine and looking to acquire the former All-Pro, I’d be careful: this advanced profile doesn’t suggest that 2024 numbers are coming back any time soon.

Sean Tucker | TB (at NO)

If the Buccaneers wanted to get Sean Tucker involved, they would.

Rachaad White continues to be inefficient as a runner, and yet, this coaching staff is making no effort to get Tucker involved (October: 14 touches for 30 yards).

If you rostered Tucker when Irving initially got hurt, it made sense. I’d hold him until you are assured that you have a Week 8 lineup you feel good about. Once that’s the case, feel free to cut ties (Tampa Bay goes on bye in Week 9).

The only reason I suggest holding until you feel good about where things sit for this week is that if there is a script to work in Tucker’s favor, this is it (5.5-point road favorite).

Tony Pollard | TEN (at IND)

I’m old enough to remember when Tony Pollard was the fresh face behind Elliott in Dallas. The running back that clearly offered more upside than the starter, but had a usage ceiling that capped his ability to truly explode.

Tyjae Spears isn’t there yet, but he’s trending in the direction of being Pollard to Pollard’s Elliott.

It’s not a perfect comparison, given that these skill sets match up a little better, but with a rookie QB under center, it stands to reason that Tennessee could shift usage away from the 28-year-old Pollard sooner rather than later.

He hasn’t given them any reason not to, and if that doesn’t change, I fear that we won’t have a top-30 RB before long. Pollard has been held under 3.5 yards per carry in the majority of his games this season (including each of the past two), saving you from complete disaster last weekend with a season-high six grabs.

I lean Spears’ way when it comes to fluidity out of the backfield, and as a massive underdog this week, that’s the skill set I want access to.

I’m actively making excuses to sit Pollard this week.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (vs CLE)

This is a nightmare, but one that we should have seen coming a month ago.

When Mike Vrabel refused to punt on Stevenson after multiple fumbles, we should have known.

Stevenson didn’t run well last week (over 27% of his carries failed to gain yardage for a third straight week). Still, Vrabel’s selective memory is causing our TreVeyon Henderson’s share of the carries to deteriorate week by week.

New England’s lead back was consistently great, but he did pick up 5+ yards on a season-high 38.9% of his Week 7 carries, and I’m willing to wager that those are the only plays Vrabel could recite.

Fight it as much as we want, but this isn’t a committee, and the lead-back duties aren’t open to competition. Stevenson out-snapped Henderson 49-9 against the Titans on Sunday, and it was even worse when the score difference was single digits (37-4).

Entering the season, we thought a committee was the worst-case scenario. Now, I’m fielding questions about whether Henderson even needs to be rostered in redraft leagues.

The answer is yes, but in the same way that Brian Robinson Jr. needs to be rostered: contingent value on an offense with upside.

This talented rookie is well off the weekly flex conversation, and zero signs point to that changing with Drake Maye leading an awfully competitive team.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (at IND)

Tyjae Spears is coming.

He’s out-snapped Pollard in consecutive games. He continues to show well for himself in the passing game (seven catches on eight targets in those contests), a strong skill to have for a team that is going to be playing from behind with regularity.

The Titans (and the NFL for that matter) largely know what Pollard is. It’s fine, but it’s nothing to build around ,and that is where teams find comfort in the unknown.

Spears might be nothing, but we don’t know that with the level of confidence that we know of Pollard’s limitations, and that makes him my preferred option in this backfield this week and moving forward.

Don’t confuse that with me saying that I’m ranking either as a must-start. That’s not at all the case for a team that has scored 45 points across 12 October quarters.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs MIA)

Tyler Allgeier has been unable to carve out a viable niche in this offense, and given the success rate of Bijan Robinson, Atlanta’s RB2 is a handcuff and nothing more.

There’s nothing wrong with that. He has a clear-cut path to fantasy viability, and that’s not the case for the majority of backfields in the NFL. We can address the team concerns should this situation come to light (Atlanta ranks 26th in running back yards gained before contact, leading to the thought that Robinson’s success has more to do with his talent than his situation), but for now, he’s a nice depth piece that holds no standalone value.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at PHI)

Tracy ripped off a 31-yard touchdown last weekend in Denver in something of a jailbreak defensive scheme, and while that counts, I’m not overreacting to a 9-46-1 stat line.

After missing a pair of games, Tracy has been on the field for just 33.8% of New York’s offensive snaps, while Cam Skattebo continues to prove his worth as a grinder in this Jaxson Dart-led offense.

I expect Tracy to fill a role somewhat like Allgeier’s to Skattebo’s Bijan Robinson. Different skill sets, obviously, but from a usage standpoint, where the lead back is getting in the vast majority of the work and the secondary option does the best he can with the scraps (7-10 touches).

He’s not a fantasy starter, though; like Allgeier, he deserves to be rostered if for no other reason than he is only an injury away from working into our lineups.

Woody Marks | HOU (vs SF)

Turn on the Texans for five minutes and it’ll be clear.

Woody Marks hits the holes like someone is chasing him, while Chubb approaches the line of scrimmage with extreme caution.

There’s a world in which the Le’Veon Bell approach works, but it’s not the world this iteration of Chubb lives i,n and thus, the Texans are starting to pivot.

The rookie out-snapped Chubb 42-18 in the ugly Monday night game against the Seahawks, more than doubling his route and touch count in the process. He carried 10 times for 15 yards.

My confidence in a bona fide talent like Nico Collins is fading in this offense, so sorry if I can’t get excited about Marks. His role development is good to see, but all 15 of those yards last week came after contact, and it looks like the Texans are playing down a man on every snap when it comes to attempting to block the opposition.

I thought, despite all of the injuries, that the 49ers’ defense showed well for itself against the Falcons last week, and while they’ve allowed a running back to clear 17.5 PPR points in four straight games, I’m not comfortable starting Marks unless my hand is very much forced.

I clearly prefer him to Chubb, but I’m playing Allgeier (vs. MIA) over him, even with a lower touch projection.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (vs NYG)

The Eagles are leaning into A.J. Brown’s physical profile, and while the lack of volume is a pain, at least he’s getting targets that let him produce top-10 numbers at the position.

• Weeks 1-2: 7.2 aDOT, 11.1% deep target rate
• Weeks 3-7: 13.2 aDOT, 26.2% deep target rate

Those bombs aren’t always going to connect the way they did in Minnesota over the weekend, but I’m more comfortable betting on this profile than what we saw to open the season.

The most encouraging part of Week 7 wasn’t the final stat line; it was the first touchdown. With Jalen Hurts on the move, Brown released downfield, and the pass was delivered on time and on the money.

That level of non-verbal communication makes for an almost impossible tandem to defend, one that can go on a serious run. There’s meat left on this bone (four straight games without an end zone target), and with him having earned a 28.3% target share two weeks ago against these Giants, I’m confident we get a second straight top 10 performance.

Adam Thielen | MIN (at LAC)

The Vikings are trending toward one of the more concentrated passing attacks in the league, and even when they branch out a bit, are we sure that Adam Thielen is the next man up?

Jalen Nailor earned twice as many targets as Thielen against the Eagles, and whenever Jones returns, that’s another target drain.

Two dozen players on your waiver wire have a more straightforward path to a random weekly breakout: there’s no reason to have this 35-year-old occupying the last spot on your roster, and every roster spot matters as we enter the second half of the season.

Brandon Aiyuk | SF (at HOU)

The 49ers were hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023, but that now sounds like a pipe dream with his status being labeled as “not close” at the beginning of the month.

By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.

In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.

I’m making a mental note of who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up. We are nearing the point in the process where a low-ball offer could be mutually beneficial, so keep your head on a swivel!

Calvin Ridley | TEN (at IND)

Calvin Ridley left Week 6 in the first half with a hamstring injury and was unable to trend toward playing last week against the Patriots.

Does the veteran extend himself to get on the field for a team headed toward an early pick?

It’s hard to feel good about this situation. Ward does seem to be improving weekly, even if marginally, but with a sub-50% catch rate and zero touchdowns, the risk of reinjury isn’t worth it until we know that Ridley is fully healthy.

He’s rosterable if for no other reason than Tennessee’s mission is to develop a player they hope to be their franchise QB. That said, he’s not sniffing your lineup this week and probably not any time soon.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at DEN)

There’s nothing like scoring from 74 yards out to appease your fantasy managers after missing nearly a month.

Dallas scored 44 points on Sunday, and while that’s difficult to project as a weekly occurrence, especially in this matchup, Lamb is locked in as the piece of the puzzle that is regression-proof.

• 5 catches for 110 yards and a TD
• 9 catches for 112 yards
• 7 catches for 110 yards
• 7 catches for 105 yards
• 9 catches for 116 yards and a TD
• 6 catches for 93 yards and a TD

If I told you that those were the best stat lines for a receiver of a two-season stretch, you’d take it and be thrilled.

Those are Lamb’s last six games if you remove the contest in which he was injured.

The matchup with Patrick Surtain isn’t ideal, but this isn’t the first time Dallas has had to work around a tough spot for their WR1. I saw nothing in the way of limitations last week, and as long as nothing comes up during the week, I like him to be the first WR1 to have success against this Denver secondary.

If you want to disagree with me, that’s fine. But what’s the actionable? There’s no way you’re starting 2-3 receivers ahead of him, so there is no conversation for season-long. If you want to fade Lamb in DFS contests, that’s fair, though I’d argue that suppressed ownership for one of the best in the sport is enticing.

Chris Godwin | TB (at NO)

The fibula cost Chris Godwin Monday night and continues to be labeled as “week-to-week” following this setback from the serious injury he suffered a season ago.

READ MORE: What Happened to Chris Godwin? Breaking Down the Buccaneers Star’s Injury That Sidelined Him in Week 7 vs. Lions

The lack of clarity (out this week with an unknown timeline) and Mayfield’s raw ability require us to hold onto the veteran receiver, but this is a playoff team motivated to play the long game.

As of this writing, I’m not confident that I rank Godwin as a viable starter at any point for the remainder of this season, but we can’t act on that. As of this writing, I’m not confident that I rank Godwin as a viable starter at any point for the remainder of this season, but we can’t act on that.

Not just yet.

Chris Olave | NO (vs TB)

Chris Olave recorded a 50-yard catch after getting behind the defense on New Orleans’ first drive of the second half, caught his breath on the sideline for a play, reentered, and scored from 21 yards out.

The touchdown came on an accurate Spencer Rattler pass that allowed Olave to flash the athleticism that we’ve seen with regularity up to this point in his career: everything aligned.

Sadly, that’s not always the case these days for the Saints.

He’s done well to own a 62% catch rate this season, and two huge connections over the past two weeks are great, but they’ve accounted for 56.1% of his receiving yards during those contests.

We saw the Rashid Shaheed explosion spot earlier this month, and that’s what this Rattler-led offense is: high-risk. If you told me that one of their top-3 players was going to produce viable fantasy numbers every week, I’d believe you, but you’re playing with fire in assuming that you know who it’ll be.

I trust the volume of Olave, and that’s why he ranks as a top 15-ish receiver for me weekly. The Bucs have allowed a receiver to gash them for over 19 PPR points in three consecutive weeks, and Olave is the best bet to make it four of five.

That said, I’m not under the illusion that one big game all of a sudden changes this profile: there’s more risk/reward in a player like Olave than a Michael Pittman type.

Christian Kirk | HOU (vs SF)

Christian Kirk was added to the Week 7 injury report heading into the weekend and was ruled out on Saturday with a hamstring injury.

The hamstring injury delayed his 2023 debut by two weeks and capped his snap share at 67.8% in the three games he has managed to be active for. This team pretty clearly needs a secondary threat next to Collins, and Kirk is a clear favorite to assume that role, but with three DNPs working against him this season after missing nine in 2024 and five in 2023, he’s going to need to prove full health before getting the least bit of fantasy lineup consideration.

The short-term schedule isn’t friendly (Denver comes to Houston next week), but if he can round into form by December, there’s a world in which he’s a viable flex (against Arizona and Las Vegas in Weeks 15-16).

Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs DAL)

The banged-up Commanders ruined a nice trend, but the Cowboys have allowed a receiver to clear 17.5 PPR points in five of six games now, and there is no debating who is the most likely Bronco to expose this secondary.

Courtland Sutton is benefiting from the volume that this offense gives him. The clear-cut WR1 has run 40+ routes in four games this season, including three of four games during their current win streak. He leads this team in receiving by 200 yards and has as many splash plays as any two of his teammates combined.

There is no denying that Bo Nix has had some growing pains at points this season, but Sutton has largely been unaffected with five top-20 finishes this young season.

With six teams on a bye, that’s something of a floor: he’s got a seat at the top 10 table this week for me, the first time this season holding such a designation.

Darius Slayton | NYG (at PHI)

A hamstring injury that occurred in Week 5 continues to keep Darius Slayton on the shelf, and that’s a shame.

It’s not just sapping you of an upside option during these bye weeks; it’s limiting his rep count with Jaxson Dart. Asking him to impact your lineup positively, should he return this weekend, in his first game back, isn’t something that I’d be remotely comfortable considering.

There’s big-play potential in Slayton’s profile, and it’ll be interesting to see how that meshes with the abilities of Dart, but that’s just it. “To see.” This is a connection I’m going to need to see produce well before investing.

Suppose you have a spot to burn, by all means. But in leagues with shallow benches, this isn’t a player you’re expecting to count on in the short term, and that’s a tough sell.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (vs CHI)

DeAndre Hopkins is used almost exclusively as a boundary receiver and is on the field for only 27.7% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps.

If that were all you knew and there was no name next to the profile, you wouldn’t be even remotely interested. Hopkins has had a great career, and if the Ravens are going to pull this season out of the flames, he will probably make a few plays along the way. But when they come and how much impact they make in our fantasy world is TBD at best.

Hopkins has yet to reach 6.5 expected points in a game this season, and that doesn’t project as likely to change any time soon.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (at KC)

We weren’t sure this heel injury would cost Deebo Samuel time, but he sat out last week and should be approached with caution.

He’s looked great for the majority of this season (TD or 10 targets in four of six games), though some of that production has come with Terry McLaurin sidelined.

The hope is that this offense is close to full strength this week, though it’s obviously something you need to track as the weekend nears. This Chiefs defense is among the best in the game, but Samuel’s versatility gives him paths to success in virtually any spot.

If all health concerns fade, Samuel will check in as a reasonable flex play for me in Week 8.

DeMario Douglas | NE (vs CLE)

If it weren’t for the big catch against the Saints in Week 6, DeMario Douglas probably wouldn’t be anywhere near roster consideration (one game with 20+ receiving yards).

He made an important play on a touchdown drive last week, but his holding value for New England isn’t the same as his holding value to us.

Douglas is hovering around 10 yards per catch for his career and has scored just five times on 189 targets. For him to be of interest to us, we need high-end volume, and that’s just not happening under Drake Maye.

There’s no need to hold out hope in 2025.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs NYG)

An early touchdown to Brown and a pick-6 had Week 7 lining up as a bust week for Smith.

Not the case.

Philadelphia’s offense stalled enough in the middle third of the game to allow the Vikings to stay tight and thus keep the passing game in play. Their pressure-oriented scheme left both Eagle receivers on islands at times, and man did they take advantage.

Smith turned 11 targets into 183 yards and a touchdown, looking unguardable for much of the afternoon. It was his second big game in October … the catch being that the dud came in Week 6, against these Giants.

I’m not too worried and am playing Smith as an acceptable WR2 this week.

The Giants allow the fourth-most yards per slot pass this season, and that is what has changed for Smith this season (57% slot rate, up from 47.5% a season ago).

I think the 11 targets will be tough to repeat, but he’s been ultra-efficient with his looks, and if he can land one splash play, asking him to flirt with 15 PPR points isn’t too much.

DJ Moore | CHI (at BAL)

DJ Moore hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 1 and hasn’t earned more than six targets in a single game this season after finishing the 2024 season with eight straight games of 7+ targets earned.

Caleb Williams has struggled since the bye, but even when he was playing at a higher level, the veteran receiver was only marginally involved.

The limited volume could stand to be offset if he were using his savvy to separate in scoring situations, but his red zone target rate is trending for a career low. Ben Johnson is having more fun scheming around the specific talents of his young pass catchers and, recently, leaning into the running game.

Things are certainly trending in the wrong direction for Moore. The Ravens’ defense has struggled across the board, and that’s why he remains on the fringe of my top 30 at the position, but he’s far from a must-start.

I’ve got home run threats like Matthew Golden (at PIT), ranked ahead of Moore for Week 8.

DK Metcalf | PIT (vs GB)

All of the math continues to work against DK Metcalf.

Even with another nice sideline catch, he’s not being targeted with regularity down the field, and that caps his upside.

As for his floor, that’s capped by a lack of volume. He has 22 catches in six games this season, and if you tuned in late on Thursday night, it’s possible you didn’t hear his name called once until the fourth quarter (two catches in the first nine minutes, with his third coming in the fourth quarter).

He figures to draw significant attention this week from the Packers’ strong defense, and, in the past, that wouldn’t terrify me. Nothing against Green Bay, but if an offense wants to prioritize a 6’4″ athlete like Metcalf, the production has a way of finding him, even in tough spots.

That’s not the case in Pittsburgh.

Rodgers trusts him to make the bail-out plays, but this offense isn’t built to get the best version of Metcalf.

Appreciate you, Arthur Smith.

With six teams on a bye, there’s only so much you can do here, but should he make one of those Metcalf, score-10-points-on-a-single-catch plays this week, I wouldn’t hesitate at all to cash in this chip for a receiver you think holds top 20 value the rest of the way.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at PIT)

You could argue that we don’t have a definitive answer on who the WR1 in Lambeau is, but we are getting pretty strong signals about who is no longer in that mix.

Dontayvion Wicks is battling an ankle injury, and that’s impacting his data to some degree, but 39 yards on 57 routes over the past month isn’t getting it done, not with Jayden Reed shelved.

The Packers have an advantageous schedule over the final seven weeks of the fantasy season, and that gives Wicks the potential to work into a role should the depth chart ahead of him give him a chance, but at this point, it appears that his fate is out of his hands.

I’m comfortable cutting ties here if the roster crunch of bye-maggedon is too much for you to deal with in other ways.

Drake London | ATL (vs MIA)

That’s now three straight games with double-digit targets for London, the return of Darnell Mooney not really impacting his usage last week in the loss to the 49ers.

The value of his opportunities is up for debate, with Michael Penix struggling to find consistency in his first season as the leader of this offense. Still, I’m happy to gamble on this target/talent combination every single week, regardless of the matchup.

Miami has allowed a WR to reach 20 PPR points in three of seven weeks, a major weakness given that they haven’t exactly played a murderers’ row of opponents. London has cleared 15 expected points in every game this month, and I expect him to more than pay off his opportunities in this spot.

London is a Tier 1 receiver for me this week, checking in as my WR5.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (at NO)

A week ago, there was a discussion about how much time Emeka Egbuka would miss due to a hamstring injury.

Over the weekend, it became clear that there was a chance he’d suit up on Monday night in Detroit.

Fast forward, and the rookie sees a season-high 12 passes thrown his way and sees his value to this team spike beyond where it already stood after Evans broke his collarbone late in the first half of the 24-9 loss.

Powerful: Bucs star rookie WR Emeka Egbuka explains why he knelt down next to Mike Evans and prayed for him after he got injured.

“I feel like that is my purpose and calling to give everything to the Lord.”

Egbuka is the definition of a class act 👏pic.twitter.com/qchuxF4ymb

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 22, 2025

Egbuka wasn’t effective at the level that we’ve come to expect in Week 17 (58 yards on 12 targets), but I think we can cut him some slack when you consider all of the moving pieces.

This is a great spot for him to get on the same page as Mayfield and reestablish himself as a top 15 receiver for the remainder of the season. The bye comes next week, and the hope is that Egbuka is back to his early-season form for a favorable finishing stretch that is highlighted by games in Carolina and Miami during the final two weeks of our season.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at CIN)

The hyperextended knee Garrett Wilson suffered in Week 6 against the Broncos was initially identified as a multi-week injury, so managers should count on being without New York’s alpha target until at least Week 10’s game against Cleveland (Week 9 bye).

Despite the obvious limitations of this offense, Wilson has four WR1 finishes on his 2025 resume, and that requires him to be started in all formats. We can nitpick about the ceiling/floor profile for him compared to those around him in the ranks, but his talent has shown the ability to rise above his supporting case.

Assuming reasonable practice participation heading into that Week 10 game, I’ll feel fine about reinserting him into lineups the second the Jets decide he is healthy enough to return.

George Pickens | DAL (at DEN)

A 44-yard catch made the day for George Pickens against the Commanders, and while spike plays like that aren’t the most reliable, it’s his specific role in this high-functioning pass game.

Lamb returned last week, and while there was a minor downtick in target share of Pickens, he still saw over 100 air yards (he’s averaging 106 per game this season) and produced over expectations.

The ceiling is naturally going to be lower as the WR2 in this offense than when he was the WR1, but that doesn’t mean he falls out of your lineups.

If anything, the case could be made that, in the DFS streets, he’s now more attractive because fewer managers are flocking to him.

There will be some duds on weeks that the deep ball doesn’t connect, but assuming that Patrick Surtain draws the Lamb shadow, Pickens should have plenty of chances to impact your lineup as a rock-solid WR2.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs NYJ)

• 221 catches
• 2,168 yards

Easy game. That’s the pace for Ja’Marr Chase if you simply extrapolate his two stat lines with Joe Flacco as the starter, obviously a very statistically responsible thing to do.

OK, so that’s not true. The pace is, but his seeing 17.5 targets per game probably doesn’t stick.

That said, what’s not to like? The deep shots are always going to be an option with an athletic profile like Chase’s, but how about 62.9% of his targets coming less than 10 yards downfield (first five weeks: 54.4%)?

Pair that with the Bengals trusting Flacco to determine their fate with 45 passes a game, and we are approaching the preseason version of Chase — the version where it’s hard to see exactly how he fails over the course of 60 minutes.

I’ll warn for some natural regression (a 765-pass pace for Flacco since joining the team isn’t happening), and it could hit this week with a Jets team that wants to muddy the game. Sauce Gardner (if active) figures to be in Chase’s shadow for most of the night, and while that’s not enough to make any moves to your fantasy roster, it is certainly a difficult spot.

Less than a month ago, we wondered if Chase was a lineup lock after a two-week run where all seemed lost with 14 targets turning into 73 touchdownless yards. Now, we are full steam ahead.

I don’t think Cincinnati is a playoff team, but it doesn’t matter what I think. They are in the AFC North race now and could rattle off wins this week and next (vs. CHI) before their Week 9 bye, really making things interesting.

Chase is a top 5 receiver the rest of the way, and that might be conservative.

Jalen Coker | CAR (vs BUF)

Jalen Coker (quad) made his season debut against the Jets last weekend, but unless you were paying awfully close attention, you may not have noticed.

While Xavier Legette was busy making plays left and right, Coker turned 17 routes into zero catches (two targets). It’s only natural to give him a little time to ramp up, though most of us don’t have time for that with bye weeks taking a bite out of our depth this week.

Is it really worth waiting on a player whose best-case scenario is the WR2 in a Bryce Young-led offense that would prefer to run the ball a million times?

I say no.

In deeper leagues, you could convince me of it because I’m intrigued by this profile, but if that’s not your situation, I’d be looking elsewhere for upside both in Week 8 and the rest of 2025.

Jauan Jennings | SF (at HOU)

If Jauan Jennings’ broken rib count is going to continue to outpace his reception number, you can’t justify starting him with any level of confidence.

Over the past two weeks, he’s turned 63 routes into 38 receiving yards, and that’s with a banged-up cast around him. What happens when Ricky Pearsall returns or when George Kittle is prioritized?

I respect the Kyle Shanahan system, and that’s why I’m not entertaining the idea of moving on. With that understood, he’s not a top 30 receiver for me this week in a game I suspect could be rather ugly.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (vs SF)

Jayden Higgins profiles more as Collins’ insurance than Christian Kirk, so it wasn’t surprising to see him not see a massive role change to open last week’s loss to the Seahawks with the slot weapon sidelined (hamstring).

He’s earned 13 targets this season and really hasn’t proven himself to the Texans, let alone fantasy managers. That said, Collins (concussion) did exit early on Monday night and the 49ers are one of four defenses yet to intercept a deep pass.

They also rank 20th on completion percentage when it comes to those chunk plays, making Higgins an interesting desperation dart throw in a week where you may be required to take such a shot.

That’s if Collins is sidelined. If he plays, that’s where those shot passes are going, and you can find better lottery tickets to scratch.

Jayden Reed | GB (at PIT)

Jayden Reed underwent foot and clavicle surgeries and was placed on injured reserve in mid-September. While the first half of November has remained the target ever since, it seems hopeful.

Green Bay’s presumed WR1 scored in Week 1 and was injured on a play in Week 2 that was inches from being a score. It’s only a six-target sample, so do with it what you will, but three came 15+ yards downfield (sub 30% rate in each of his first two seasons).

READ MORE: Jayden Reed Injury Update: Everything Fantasy Managers Need To Know About the Packers WR’s Return

My thought is that the team was aware of what Tucker Kraft could do in the short receiving game, and the speed of Matthew Golden was anything but a secret, thus opening up Reed to expand his route tree a bit. That’s how he can become a weekly fantasy asset, but he needs to prove himself healthy before anything.

The Packers play the Bears twice in December, matchups that give Reed the potential to crack my top 24 in those impact weeks, should his usage trend in the direction we saw out of the gates.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at ATL)

Jaylen Waddle cleared 15 PPR points in each of the first two games following the Tyreek Hill injury, but when Tua Tagovailoa was asked to support him in anything less than ideal conditions, he vanished.

In the blowout loss, Waddle picked up 15 yards on his 25 routes, and we saw next to zero signs of life from this passing game.

If you want to talk yourself into this being a weatherproof game and thus a spot to trust Waddle, go crazy. I like my mental stability, so I’m opting to look elsewhere when given the opportunity and have him ranked as a low-end WR3.

Only twice this season has a team seen a receiver score even a dozen PPR points against the Falcons, and Waddle doesn’t exactly fit the mold of those two instances (Emeka Egbuka in Week 1 and Deebo Samuel in Week 4).

Give me Worthy or Khalil Shakir over Miami’s WR1 this week: I’d rather bet on those quarterbacks and take my chances.

Jaylin Noel | HOU (vs SF)

The broadcast on Monday night continued to insist that Jaylin Noel was an asset in the making, and while his long-term outlook will depend on how this Texans team builds out their offense, he certainly looked like the better Iowa State wide receiver.

Week 7 Data

• Noel: 44.9% snap share, 4 catches, 7 targets
• Jayden Higgins: 65.2% snap share, 0 catches, 3 targets

He was filling a void left by Christian Kirk (hamstring) and later by Collins, so I’m not ready to say he’s close to redraft flex radars, but he did show well for himself against a tough Seahawks defense that was living in the backfield.

Stashing him is a sound strategy: Houston will want to get him as many live reps as possible this season, and the lingering nature of the Kirk injury could accelerate that process in a meaningful way.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at NE)

Your waiver wire probably isn’t packed with receivers who see 7-8 targets weekly, and that’s the only redeeming quality to Jerry Jeudy at this point.

He’s holding steady at a 42.3% catch rate this season and has one end zone target to his name (267 routes run). Dillon Gabriel is running a low-octane offense, and that’s a tough sell for a speed-oriented receiver like Jeudy at face value, never mind that the shortening of targets hasn’t helped the efficiency issues in the least.

RELATED: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool

Is Jeudy any better than an Alec Pierce or Kayshon Boutte type? Lesser talents with a similar skill set that have access to a QB playing at a far higher level?

That’s the tier he calls home this week in my rankings, and I’m not motivated to look this direction in any format, even in a script that I believe will force the Browns to pass more than they’d like to.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at LAC)

Giddy up!

I believe that this Kevin O’Connell offense is mainly going to function similarly no matter who is under center, so the fact that Jordan Addison was targeted on four of his seven first-quarter routes speaks volumes to me.

Included in that sample was a twisting 34-yard catch that could have been an even bigger gain had the pass been on target, but the ability to shake free and open windows was on full display last week against the Eagles.

Addison isn’t a threat to out-earn Justin Jefferson on any sort of consistent basis. That said, I’m not sold on this running game, and the Vikings project to have only two potential weather spots remaining on their schedule.

Nice conditions and an offensive savant is a good way to find flex value, especially when the subject of discussion is someone who has proven capable of scoring touchdowns in bunches.

Addison checks in as a low-end WR2/high-end flex for me this week, and that’s roughly where I’ll have him most weeks.

Josh Downs | IND (vs TEN)

A concussion kept Downs out last week against the Chargers, and the hope is that the absence doesn’t extend beyond that.

The third-year receiver seemed to find a little bit of a groove before the DNP, catching 12 passes in two October games after hauling in 14 during all of September.

The issue I have with the Downs profile is that he needs volume in an offense that would be more than happy to put the ball in the belly of Taylor 30 times as a big favorite this week (he turned 17 carries into 102 yards during the Week 2 meeting).

We are now more than a month removed from Downs’ last 15-yard catch, and with eight scores on 239 career targets, we can’t exactly bank on a bailout play.

I’m confident to project a handful of targets this week, assuming all recovery boxes are checked, and he’ll probably be efficient with them. I’m just not sure there’s a ceiling to chase. If you have built a strong team and need to lock in 8-10 PPR points, Downs is very much in the conversation.

If you’re an underdog and are thus willing to swallow some risk for potential reward, I’d look elsewhere.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (at CAR)

Josh Palmer took two targets and led Buffalo in receiving yards (60) against the Falcons before the bye.

Great.

Don’t care.

Palmer hasn’t reached a 50% snap share since Week 1, and his expected point total has been under five points in four of those five.

This is where I draw the line. Wanting to chase exposure to this offense is logical, but you’re taking on far too much risk for little reward by way of Palmer. You’d be much better off rostering a handcuff running back instead of a weekly swing-for-the-fences receiver and hoping you catch lightning in a bottle.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at LAC)

If Cooper DeJean doesn’t get his hand in the mix at the last possible second to disrupt a Jefferson touchdown, we are viewing last week as a win.

Instead, the elite wideout finished with a 50% catch rate and looked less connected with Wentz than Addison.

I’m not the least bit worried, and I can’t imagine you are either.

Jefferson has been QB and matchup proof for the majority of his career, and by earning double-digit targets in back-to-back-to-back games, that’s still very much the way to approach #18.

His slot usage is tracking for a career low while his deep target rate is a career high — a profile I’d fear for most receivers, but not Jefferson. We know that Kevin O’Connell has a scheme that centers around him and that his ball/route skills are nothing short of elite.

Los Angeles has seen a featured WR clear 20 PPR points in three of their past five games, and the two exceptions were teams that struggle to put any WR fantasy points on the board (Giants and Dolphins).

Jefferson is in the WR1 overall conversation this week, for the remainder of this season, and in dynasty formats.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (vs CLE)

We’ve gone over this for a few weeks now, and it keeps paying off, so let’s stick with it: Kayshon Boutte is the apple of Maye’s eye when he has a clean pocket and an afterthought otherwise.

Over the past two weeks, he’s made spike plays against the Titans and Saints, two defenses that rank in the bottom 10 in pressure rate.

At first blush, you’d assume that this isn’t a great spot, and you’d be right.

Sort of.

Cleveland ranks 17th in overall pressure rate and 13th when not blitzing. That’s better than the past two opponents and could lead you to fade this heater in DFS, but if you look a little bit closer, I think there’s some juice to squeeze as long as the ownership numbers stay low.

Browns’ Pressure Rankings By Month

• September: 7th
• October: 26th

Boutte has run hot on the seven targets he’s earned during this stretch (148 yards and three touchdowns), so I’m not selling you on him as a “safe” play in any regard. I’d rather steer clear in season-long leagues because of the variance and my belief that this could be an ugly game, but in top-heavy weekly leagues?

I’ve seen worse statistical decisions made.

Keenan Allen | LAC (vs MIN)

The Keenan Allen touchdown last week was a work of art and was a great example of why, in his age-33 season, he’s still able to produce like a weekly lineup lock.

With Herbert on the move, the veteran receiver was thinking two steps ahead, located a hole in the zone, and sat down in it at the perfect time.

Touchdown, easy game.

Allen has earned at least seven targets in every game this season, scoring in four of them and adding a 20+ yard grab in four of his past six. Ladd McConkey is a younger version of him, and Johnston offers far more athleticism. Still, for a team with a high PROE rate like this, the reliability of Allen is just as critical as anything.

For the season, he has more catches on third down (14) than any of his teammates have targets on the critical down, and leads the Bolts across the board in receiving production when Herbert is blitzed (catches, targets, and fantasy points).

Those are great traits to carry into a showdown with a team as aggressive as the Vikings, especially if you think the running game struggles to the degree that they did over the weeks (RBs vs. IND: 10 carries for 23 yards).

Kendrick Bourne | SF (at HOU)

This may have run its course.

Kendrick Bourne posted consecutive 142-yard games to open October. Still, this team is gradually getting healthier, and that has the ninth-year man in danger of phasing off our radar altogether.

On Sunday against the Falcons, he turned 23 routes into just two targets (14 yards). It was his fourth game with under 40 receiving yards this season, struggles that I expect to sustain moving forward.

Bourne needs to be held until we have proof that the receivers ahead of him on the depth chart are reasonably healthy, but I think it’s far more likely that he’s on the cut list before Thanksgiving than in the flex conversation.

Keon Coleman | BUF (at CAR)

By now, you know what this profile is: low volume, high upside.

But that last part really hasn’t happened. Through six weeks of this season, the man with impressive hoops highlights in his profile was not one of the 147 players across the league with a catch gaining more than 25 yards.

If the big plays aren’t going to be there, Coleman isn’t close to lineup consideration. He’s been held under 30 receiving yards in four of his past five games, and while I do think there is talent here in a great offense, the risk isn’t worth the reward at this moment in time.

Sit back and wait. Maybe things look different coming out of the bye, but you have to take the patient route at this point.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (at CAR)

The YAC skills of Shakir are no secret (over 7.0 in every season of his career), but with more than five targets just once since the opener, a player who we once lauded for the elevated floor is no longer a safe bet.

Before the bye, 100% of Buffalo’s yards against the Falcons came when trailing. It was also a contest played without Dalton Kincaid and AJ Terrell lurking on the perimeter with Keon Coleman.

If there was ever a spot for Shakir to rack up the looks, that was it. He posted just a 19.2% target share and was one of six Bills to finish with 11-33 receiving yards. Tyrell Shavers doubled his season targets in that game, and while I don’t think it sticks, it’s at least worth noting that Buffalo was getting a little creative.

Shakir is a low-ceiling PPR flex that doesn’t need to be started. This is obviously a good spot, but if Buffalo controls the game as expected, how many targets are there to be had?

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs MIN)

In September, Ladd McConkey didn’t have a single game with 14 expected PPR points, but in October, he has had nothing but games like that, earning 31 looks across those three contests.

More impressive than the target count is the placement of those looks: 67.3% slot rate along with six end zone targets.

It’s hard to argue that McConkey’s ceiling rivals that of Quentin Johnston, but he’s back to showing the elevated floor that we fell in love with last season, and that has him checking in as my top Bolt moving forward.

He’s deserving of WR1 consideration this season, but he’s a lineup lock regardless of how you split hairs.

Luther Burden III | CHI (at BAL)

Remember the last time Luther Burden ran 15+ routes in a football game?

It was in college.

The speedster has yet to get there as a pro, and with Olamide Zaccheaus essentially playing ahead of him, not to mention both tight ends seeing work, there’s not nearly enough meat on this bone to justify holding.

This offense has weekly upside, and Ben Johnson is always capable of crafting up packages, but in a redraft situation, this is a no-fly zone. In a GPP? I could see it as a punt play, as long as you understand the risks at hand.

Marquise Brown | KC (vs WAS)

Hollywood Brown scored last week, but under a yard per route is discouraging, and it’s tough to find consistent looks for him in this offense with Rice stepping right back into the alpha earner role.

I’m selling to the highest bidder and not thinking twice about it.

I said two weeks ago that I’d move him for the Packers D/ST, and you’ve lost out big time if you executed at the time of that suggestion.

I’d still do it.

Green Bay has a very reasonable schedule for the rest of the way, and that’s a starting spot, whereas you’d really need to be in a tough spot to plug in Brown, barring an injury around him.

Brown sits outside of my top 40 at the position this week, behind lesser talents like Troy Franklin and Mooney, who are in great matchups.

Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (vs DAL)

Marvin Mims set season highs in routes, targets, and receiving yards last week against the Giants. While a crazy game script certainly played into that, it’s a positive step for a player who has struggled to produce such data points this season.

This is exactly the type of player that you could be forced into playing for this goofy week, with six teams on a bye and various injuries impacting the teams that are in action.

Is Mims safe?

Not close.

But you’re taking a stab at a high-upside receiver attached to an offense with upside in a matchup that is a fantasy steroid.

Mims’ average touchdown length for his career is 37.9 yards, making him a real threat to land a single punch in this favorable spot.

Matthew Golden | GB (at PIT)

Either I’m confused about the plan or the Packers are confused about the prospect.

I’m not sure either is a good outcome.

Matthew Golden had a 14.8-yard aDOT through five career games before checking in at 3.8 last week in Arizona.

Is he a field stretcher? A gadget guy? At risk of disappearing altogether when the WR room is at full strength with Jayden Reed and Christian Watson on the mend?

I maintain my thought that there is potential here. Jordan Love is going to take his shots, and Golden has proven capable of getting vertical, but the odds of us achieving any level of consistency are declining week by week.

Pittsburgh has allowed at least four deep completions in two of its past three games, and if that trend continues, Green Bay’s talented rookie could bail you out during a tough week.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs TEN)

The Colts have been the story of the 2025 season up to this point, and the team’s success is driving fantasy value to just about anyone you have on your roster.

Michael Pittman has finished as WR22 or better in five of seven weeks this season, a heck of a bargain for a player who was rarely drafted inside the top 36 at the position this summer.

It all looks sustainable to me.

The types of targets he is earning (spot on the field and depth) are within the range of acceptable outcomes based on his career norms, and his targets-per-route mark is identical to what we’ve come to expect.

Realistically, the only thing that has changed has been the QB play in town.

• 2025: 74.5% catch rate
• 2024: 62.2% catch rate
• 2023: 69.9% catch rate
• 2022: 70.2% catch rate
• 2021: 68.2% catch rate
• 2020: 63.4% catch rate

Maybe we see that slip a touch, but this offense is geared to make Daniel Jones comfortable, and he’s delivering. Pittman has given us at least five receptions in four of his past five games and continues to produce without the aid of chunk plays (35 receptions this season, and his longest is 27 yards).

If we regress the efficiency a little, but add in some splash plays, he remains a locked-in WR2 with relatively little downside. Jones spread the ball around against these Titans back in Week 3 (three Colts earned 5-6 targets), and it was Pittman that did the damage (6-73-1).

I have him penciled in as my WR15 this week, and I’m more likely to shift him up than back the closer we get to kickoff.

Mike Evans | TB (at NO)

Mike Evans returned from three straight DNP’s due to a hamstring injury and looked reasonably healthy.

That is, until he landed hard late in the second quarter and broke his collarbone. For now, you’re keeping him stashed until we get confirmation that his season is over, but early reports suggest that it’s possible.

Even if it’s not, the odds seem long that he will play a full complement of snaps during the remainder of the fantasy season. This is a tough blow for one of the better players of a generation, but Mayfield is going to continue to throw the ball, and this opens up interesting waivers on the waiver wire.

Leading Target Earners Post Evans Injury

• Egbuka: 10
• Tez Johnson: 8
• Cade Otton: 7
• Sterling Shepard: 5
• Kam Johnson: 1

Nico Collins | HOU (vs SF)

An apparent head injury (now deemed a concussion) cost Collins the majority of the fourth quarter on Monday night, but was anything really going to change during the final 15 minutes?

He had a chunk play taken off the board due to a penalty early in addition to an inexcusable drop, but after that, he really wasn’t in a spot to succeed based on the type of target he was seeing in Seattle.

With Stroud fearing for his life, a lot of Collins’ targets were in traffic at best and ludicrous at worst. We are talking about basically jump-ball situations — something I don’t mind with an athlete like this if they carry upside-down less than 10 yards down the field, because the pressure is getting home before he even hits the top of his drop.

Collins finished with 27 yards on 10 targets, his fourth game this season with under 55 yards, and the third time this season he’s failed to come down with over 60% of his targets.

These high-risk, low-reward targets are generally a losing formula. We’ve seen Collins’ average depth of target (aDOT) slowly dip in each of his past four games, and with it, all upside is being sucked out of this profile.

You’re starting him because Houston is low on trusted options, and Stroud’s reflex is to put the ball in the air for his WR1, but this situation very much handcuffs the ceiling. The 49ers have allowed a receiver to reach 11 PPR points in just two of their past five games, putting Collins (assuming health) at risk of another sub-standard performance based on the capital you spent on him this summer.

Pat Bryant | DEN (vs DAL)

If ever there was an opportunity for Pat Bryant to have “a moment,” it would have been Sunday’s crazy win, when Nix thought in colors for the final 15 minutes and produced big plays left and right.

But it didn’t happen. Denver authored potentially the best comeback of the season, and their rookie receiver finished with six yards on 24 routes.

Half of his routes came in that dramatic fourth quarter, and even with everything seeming to go right for this offense, he failed to catch the one ball thrown in his direction.

It’s time to move on. We fought the good fight, but we have to call it on the 2025 upside.

Is it possible that Bryant improves as this season continues to wear on? Of course it is, but part of that is that he really has no other option: he’s ninth on this team in receiving yards. If there’s nobody of interest to you on the wire, I’d hold for one more week, simply because any team that hosts the Cowboys has the potential to show us new ways of putting points on the board.

But if you’re in the same type of roster crunch that most of us are this week, moving on is plenty reasonable.

Rashee Rice | KC (vs WAS)

The “everyone will eat” mantra is cute, and it makes sense if you’re a team with a bunch of equally skilled players. It’s a good way to boost morale and keep everyone engaged when scheming up plays.

It’s also not a sharp strategy when you have an alpha target earner, and Reid is a sharp offensive mind, so we should have never read into the idea of a democratic approach to the target distribution in Kansas City once it was made official that Rice was good to go.

• 100 catches
• 128 targets
• 8 touchdowns

That would be a career year for most: it’s the last 14 healthy games for Rice, a stretch that includes four playoff games in which the defenses stiffen.

Forget the volume for a minute and focus on that 78.1% catch rate that trends closer to what we expect from a running back than a top-notch receiver.

The argument could be made that he’s like 90% of St. Brown, but couldn’t Patrick Mahomes playing at an MVP rate cover that 10% difference?

There were designed screens, there were flip plays, and there were back-shoulder timing plays. There was a bit of everything on Sunday, and I can’t help but think we are just getting started.

I think it would be more difficult to argue against Rice being a top-seven receiver this week than slotting him at the top overall spot.

Rashid Shaheed | NO (vs TB)

I spend a lot of time talking about offensive environment and how it stands to impact fantasy players, for better or worse, and Rashid Shaheed is a great example.

He earned a season-high nine targets in Chicago last week, but it didn’t really matter. For the fifth time in six weeks, he caught exactly four passes and finished with 28-52 receiving yards.

When I talk about the limitations of an offense like that of New Orleans, it’s not that all options are useless; it’s more that no one is safe.

It was a Chris Olave game last week (5-98-2). That’s going to happen. A bad offensive environment in 2023 doesn’t mean the value is sucked out of all involved; it means that there is a direct push-and-pull effect that doesn’t happen in stable situations.

Ja’Marr Chase’s triple crown season didn’t stop Tee Higgins from having a great season because that offensive environment was sound. James Cook can succeed next to Josh Allen because there’s plenty of food at the table.

That’s not the case for the Saints, obviously. I believe Shaheed is a good player, but so is Chris Olave (didn’t have 60 receiving yards in a game until Week 6), and I don’t think Alvin Kamara (3.6 yards per carry and hasn’t scored since Week 1) is completely finished.

But a bet on any one of them is inherently a bet against the other two. This offense isn’t going to consistently support multiple assets, and the math works out that you’re going to be underwhelmed more often than not in a situation like this.

The Bucs are better against the run than the pass, and that gives Shaheed hope, but nothing is assured in this system. I rank for mean outcomes, and with him finishing outside of the top 35 at the position in four of the past five weeks (shootout to the WR9 finish in Week 5), it’s hard to justify getting him into any tier other than the very low-end flex conversation.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs CHI)

I’m all in on wanting to bet on the Jackson comeback, but I’m not doing it by way of Rashod Bateman.

For his career, 25.3% of his targets have come deep down the field, and that’s a dangerous way to live in the best of situations. It gets even worse when you’re not exceptionally good at shaking free (pacing for a sub-17% target share in a third straight season).

Bateman can be left on waiver wires for now, and if we see him being featured in a new way after the bye, we can reassess. At the end of the day, this is a profile I’m more willing to be late on than early.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (at HOU)

The truth of the matter is that we don’t know.

Ricky Pearsall complained of “instability” in his knee at the end of September, and we have yet to see him in October. Positive reports have been few and far between, and the best approach seems simple: see it before you believe it.

Every week is going to bring its own set of struggles for you, but I’m having a hard time seeing a situation in which you play Pearsall when he first returns. The 15.9-yard aDOT speaks to a very specific skill that requires high-end athleticism to pay off on a good day, not to mention physical limitations that can also creep into the mental side of things.

I’m not a doctor or a psychologist, so I can’t give you in-depth details about what he is going through or the boxes he needs to check before returning to the WR, who had a pair of top-20 finishes in the first month of the season.

What I can tell you is that you’re not required to play him when the 49ers do, and that I’ll give him at least a one-week buffer between that date and his return to my radar.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at BAL)

I’ll admit it.

I spent too much time looking at this Rome Odunze profile and trying to figure out exactly what has changed following the bye.

• Weeks 1-4: 2.10 yards per route, 34.1% slot usage, 2.27 points per target
• Weeks 6-7: 1.11 yards per route, 31.7% slot usage, 0.94 points per target

The time spent in the slot is usually my default for drastic swings like this. Those are the layup-type targets that typically fuel fantasy efficiency. That rate isn’t different enough to catch my eye, but what his routes look like when in the slot is where we start to make sense of things.

• Weeks 1-4: 10.3 aDOT when in the slot
• Weeks 6-7: 23.8 aDOT when in the slot

Is Ben Johnson trying to get cute, or is this part of a master plan that could have his second-year receiver thriving with time?

I trust him as an offensive mind and Odunze as a talent, and I believe we’ve lost a few weekly battles lately to win the long-term role, but I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing this role change yield some fruit along the way.

The Ravens have been a mess over the past month against every type of opponent, and, to be honest, things weren’t great when this team was at full strength.

I’m staying the course. His average weekly finish during the first month of the season was WR15, and that’s on the low end of what I’m expecting come Sunday afternoon.

Romeo Doubs | GB (at PIT)

I’d never dream of jinxing something, so I’m just going to lay out the facts for the past month.

• Romeo Doubs has as many catches as any other Packer has targets (17)
• Romeo Doubs has four of Green Bay’s six end zone targets
• Romeo Doubs leads the Packers in average depth of target

Again, I’m going to catch myself before I suggest that this team has made it clear as to who their WR1 is, seemingly for the first time in the post-Davante Adams world. We’ve seen runs from other receivers, and we’ve had the carpet pulled out from under us when we felt ready to commit.

But if someone were to think such a thing, a matchup against a Steelers defense that is allowing the fifth-most red zone drives per game would be of interest to me. The same defense that has allowed a receiver to clear 18 PPR points in four of six games.

All hypothetical. If Green Bay had, in this make-believe world in which we are speculating about, landed on a WR1, said player would be flirting with top 20 status for this Sunday night showdown.

Stefon Diggs | NE (vs CLE)

Stefon Diggs’ timeline isn’t the same as Drake Maye’s, but it’s clear that the veteran receiver offers comfort for the breakout star, and that’s paying the fantasy bills.

The 31-year-old has caught 6+ passes four times this season, including three times over the past month. He’s yet to find the end zone (one end zone target), but if you trust the trajectory of this offense, it would stand to reason that the scores come (32 touchdowns in 58 games in his four seasons leading into this one) with him looking as healthy as we’ve seen in a bit.

For the record, I find it difficult to believe that, in his 11th season, Diggs posts a career high in yards per route. Some regression is to be expected, but we are looking at the top target in an offense moving in the right direction, who clearly has the trust of his QB (11 catches on 13 third-down looks this season).

Diggs is in the top 20 conversation for me this week, even against a good defense.

Tee Higgins | CIN (vs NYJ)

Let’s get this out of the way first: I’m sorry if you rostered Tee Higgins and lost your matchup by 6.7 or fewer points last week. His 6-96-1 stat line is obviously great, but his electing to slide at the seven-yard line late instead of extending for a touchdown hurts.

It won the game for the Steelers, but you’re still allowed to be frustrated.

Cincinnati’s WR2 recorded season highs in catches, targets, and yards in Joe Flacco’s debut with the team, and he bettered all of them on Thursday night. The bar was set low, but it’s obvious that the veteran QB is aware that his job is to load up his top two receivers with as much volume as humanly possible, and that is why we can feel good about starting Higgins again after a rough first month.

With six teams on a bye and Sauce Gardner more likely to square up with Ja’Marr Chase, you should feel great about rolling Higgins out there as your WR2 in all formats, understanding that, as long as the volume sticks in this offense, he could be a top 15 asset at the position the rest of the way.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at KC)

This annoying quad injury has now cost Terry McLaurin four straight games, though reports indicate he is making progress.

That’s obviously great to hear, but I don’t care. If he returns this week, I’m looking for an excuse to go elsewhere. A month of missed time is a lot and carries with it reinjury risk, not to mention this being one of the better defensive units in the league.

McLaurin’s aDOT is pacing for his highest mark since his rookie campaign, and if he’s limited physically, a cardio-centric outing is certainly within the range of outcomes.

Pay attention to his practice habits as the weekend approaches; it’s possible that, with six teams on bye, you’re really short on options. With this game being the last one of the week, I’d need more than a questionable label come Sunday action to sit active receivers for McLaurin this week.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (vs BUF)

Tetairoa McMillan is a talented player who could follow a Collins-like trajectory, with a physical mismatch that develops into stardom over time.

In brutal situations, it can take more time than we are willing to accept. McMillan drew the Sauce Gardner shadow for large portions of Week 7, and there’s no shame in struggling in such a spot, but he’s failed to catch more than four passes in four of his past five games, and Gardner doesn’t play for all of those defenses.

He’s a raw rookie with lots of upside. That profile can work in the right spot, but a Bryce Young offense isn’t that spot.

I like the odds of Carolina playing from behind, and that’s a good thing. In their three losses this season, their WR1 is averaging 9.0 targets and 76.7 yards (wins: 6.5 targets and 45.8 yards). He’s a low-end WR2 that ranks in the same range as Stefon Diggs (vs. CLE) and Romeo Doubs (at PIT).

Tez Johnson | TB (at NO)

Tez Johnson has scored in consecutive games, and while he’s roughly the same build as a fantasy sports researcher, he makes for a nice midseason add to your roster.

It’s unlikely he scores every week, but he did wrap his collegiate career with a pair of 80+ catch, 10-TD seasons at Oregon. He’s averaging 17 yards per catch in his limited run this season. He should have some single coverage situations to attack with plenty of attention likely to be paid toward fellow rookie Emeka Egbuka.

Egbuka is the clear WR1 in this offense, and Cade Otton holds more value than Johnson due to the position he plays, but I’ve got him just inside my top 40 at the position and ahead of the other fill-in options on this roster.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (at PHI)

Where did the Wan’Dale Robinson that we had come to know and tolerate go?

I drafted him this summer with the thought being that I’d never play him, but if forced to, I’d embrace the elevated floor and hope that my stars do the heavy lifting for that one-off week.

That’s the furthest thing from what he is.

Over the past six weeks, he has cleared 80 yards three times, scoring in two of those contests. He’s also failed to clear 30 yards three times.

One of those good games did come against these Eagles (6-84-1 in Week 6), and the profile looks reasonably clean from that victory. The part that worries me is that he primarily thrived with a game script I don’t expect to repeat.

In that game, five of his receptions came with the G-Men holding a lead. As a seven-point underdog, on the road, against a superior team that has a full week to prepare for the film Jaxson Dart has put together, this isn’t a spot I’m comfortable.

If he reaches any of the thresholds he hit in the first meeting, I’d be surprised. I’ll take whatever 49er wide receivers decide to suit up this week (at HOU) over Robinson, and I’d be receptive to the idea of playing boom/bust options in better scoring environments like Golden or Shaheed over him.

Xavier Legette | CAR (vs BUF)

Sauce Gardner was a shadow on Tetairoa McMillan, and that allowed Xavier Legette to get loose (9-92-1).

I’m not reading into this.

New York has struggled to defend secondary receivers all season lon,g and that allowed Bryce Young to play with rare levels of confidence.

I need to see a lot more before considering Legette as anything beyond a dart-throw flex. In the two weeks before the strong game in New York, he earned five targets and totaled 42 yards on 53 routes against the Cowboys and Dolphins.

Two tremendous matchups, and he wasn’t close to being playable.

The Bills are coming off their bye and offer much more versatility across the board than their divisional counterpart. You need to hit on a two-leg parlay for this to work out: Young and Legette to both play above their well-established baselines.

I’m not comfortable banking on either, much less both.

Xavier Worthy | KC (vs WAS)

As the Mahomes stock increases, Worthy’s fantasy production declines, and that’s a terrifying trend for those who thought they had a long-term difference maker.

During the first three quarters last season (Mahomes was yanked at the end of the quarter with the result no longer in doubt), Worthy led the team in routes run.

He turned that playing time into an 11.8% target share.

I don’t care how good Mahomes is; a lack of target earning at that level is a red flag that gets even more red when you dig in and realize that none of his targets came deep downfield.

We saw Worthy prove himself as more than just a burner last season, and that was great. WAS. With Rice (10 targets, 2.0 aDOT) a full go, the running backs earning volume, and Kelce continuing to move the chains, the deep targets are Worthy’s path to success.

Thornton is averaging 22.2 yards per catch and hauled in a 39-yard pass last week. Jameson Williams has been a spotty player in this exact role for the Lions this season, and I’m not sure this situation profiles as different in a meaningful way.

If you play Worthy, you’d better feel great about it: his odds of determining your result, in either direction, are as high as anyone in this tier of flex options. Washington is one of four defenses without a deep interception, so maybe there’s a thread to pull, but they also have the eighth-lowest opponent TD% on those passes.

Worthy sits just outside of my top 20 this week, and that’s saying something given the lack of available WRs.

Zay Flowers | BAL (vs CHI)

Zay Flowers was huge in the Week 1 loss against the Bills (7-143-1), but despite consistent volume, he’s averaged just 56 yards since with zero scores.

Of course, the Jackson injury plays a big role in that. We’ve seen Flowers’ aDOT drop since his QB1 went down, an injury that coincided with the return of Isaiah Likely. His rate of slot snaps fell off a cliff in Week 6, with Likely as healthy as he’s been, but again, there is a chicken-and-egg thing at play with the shift in overall offensive philosophy.

This matchup doesn’t scare me, nor do the other receivers in this offense (Flowers has 34 receptions, and no other receiver on this team has more than 22 targets). That’s enough for me to rank him as a viable flex option in the return of Jackson in a spot where Baltimore could score 30 points without much trouble.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton | TB (at NO)

Cade Otton has never been a high-end target earner, but he’s being pressed into chain-moving duties with the receivers around him dropping like flies.

It’s not the highest of thresholds, but there are only two tight ends in the NFL with 50+ receiving yards in each of their past three games, and Otton is one of them.

Kelce is the other, as a part of a Chiefs offense that is hitting its stride.

Otton slides into my low-end TE1 tier for this week and for as long as Mike Evans (collarbone) is sidelined.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (at IND)

After consecutive games with 4+ receptions, Chig Okonkwo was shut out on 23 routes against the Patriots.

In theory, Okonkwo checks the boxes of a tight end streamer. He’s on the right side of the age curve, has athletic upside, and plays for an offense developing a rookie QB without a deep WR room.

That theory is great until you get a week like this and he buries you.

Okonkwo is on the fringes of streamability, though I’m more likely to lean toward a Theo Johnson or Likely type — hyper athletes involved in an offense with more weekly potential.

Okonkwo isn’t a top-20 tight end for me this week or for the remainder of the season.

Cole Kmet | CHI (at BAL)

A back injury forced Cole Kmet out early over the weekend, but this tight end situation doesn’t look like a committee anymore.

Kmet is a fine player, and the Bears know that. There’s a reason he’s on the roster and continues to get run, but it’s becoming clear that this offense has bigger plans for Colston Loveland as 2025 wears on, and they are coming at the expense of the former Golden Domer.

With no more than a single catch in four of six games this season, I find it unlikely that you need to be advised to cut ties here, but if he’s still on the back-end of your bench … move on.

Colston Loveland | CHI (at BAL)

Colston Loveland has run more routes than Kmet in both games since returning to action and was on the field for a robust 67.2% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in the win over the Saints last week (a Kmet back injury factored in, but things were trending in this direction pre-injury as well).

Three catches for 24 yards isn’t exactly the type of explosion that a spike in role like that would point to in an ideal world, but I do think we are gradually moving in the right direction.

Williams has had his ups and downs, but to my eye, he’s starting to buy into this Ben Johnson system, and considering that he had some say in the Bears taking Loveland 10th overall back in April, I feel strongly that the best is yet to come.

I need to see it before ranking him as a starter, but I’m stashing him on my rosters now, understanding that it could pay off massively during the final month of the season.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs NYG)

It’s funny, I don’t see nearly as much vitriol online from the fantasy community when the Philadelphia passing attack targets a tight group, leaving Dallas Goedert out in the cold, as I do when one of the receivers underachieves.

After scoring in four straight, Goedert wasn’t at all featured in the Hurts bonanza, finishing the Week 7 win over the Vikings with just 18 yards.

This is who Goedert is and why I’ve been labeling him as a streamer with a good publicist.

He’s a name you know on an elite team, but he’s been relying on touchdowns this season. That’s dangerous on a good day, but when you have four teammates that I view as far more likely to finish a drive than you, “unsustainable” doesn’t begin to describe his early-season profile.

Now, it should be noted that the one game that looked different was two weeks ago, in this exact matchup. In the upset loss, he was targeted 11 times on 31 routes, caught nine balls for 110 yards and a touchdown.

For whatever reason, he was featured from the jump and was one of the lone bright spots for the Birds on that Thursday night.

That’s not the norm, and I don’t expect it to repeat (it’s his only game with 45+ yards this season). If you can sell a league mate on Week 7 being a breakthrough effort for this offense and that Goedert is poised for a big Week 8, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

Goedert is a fancy streamer, and I bet you can find similar productions by cycling through the weekly options.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at CAR)

An oblique injury cost Dalton Kincaid Week 6, and that needs to be watched, but the general hope is that he’s ready to go after the bye.

There’s no denying that Kincaid has been great this season, and with each passing week, it appears likely that he is the answer to the question of which pass catcher holds the most value in this Josh Allen-led machine.

The former first-round pick has a touchdown or six targets in every game. His aDOT sat at 6.7 yards during his high-volume rookie season, rose to 8.2 in Year 2, and through five games this season, is currently 9.7. This development makes sense, with Cook and Shakir primarily responsible for the horizontal targets, though it should be noted that as the routes extend downfield, the range of outcomes widens.

Kincaid already has a career-high in single-season touchdown receptions, and he’s done it with a red zone target rate that is actually lagging from where it finished last season. This is obviously a good spot for the Buffalo offense, and that should have you feeling very confident in their lead tight end, provided that there are no reports of the injury lingering.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs SF)

C.J. Stroud sees 30.6% of his pass attempts come when under pressure, and a large portion of the remaining attempts are rushed due to the threat of the iffy offensive line collapsing in short order.

For the Texans, that’s not great, but for the value of their tight end, it works. Dalton Schultz has tallied four straight games with at least five grabs, putting him on a list with only Jake Ferguson and Trey McBride when it comes to TEs to have accomplished that this season.

He’s not a real threat to post a big number in any one given week because of what he is asked to do. As a function of this offense, just 2.7% of his targets come 15+ yards downfield, the lowest rate among the 21 tight ends with at least 30 targets (NFL average: 11.7%).

Thanks to that role, I think you’re safe to start Schultz weekly and position the rest of your lineup to decide your fate.

Darren Waller | MIA (at ATL)

A pec strain kept Darren Waller out of the second half of Week 7 against the Browns and has since been placed on injured reserve.

I believe that you ALWAYS use your IR slot when possible. It’s free, why wouldn’t you?

Outside of that, I’m not the least bit burning a roster spot on Waller. He’s no different than half a dozen streaming options, so when you factor in this injury and the limitations of the offense as a whole, there’s far more risk than projectable reward in this profile.

David Njoku | CLE (at NE)

David Njoku hasn’t played a full season since 2018, and that track was assured of continuing through 2025 after a DNP in Week 7 (knee).

The veteran tight end remains on the field for over three-quarters of the snaps, something that has been consistent for four years now, but the quality of look, for our purposes, is on enough of a decline to put him in the fringe starter conversation, even when at full strength.

Compared to last season, Njoku’s yards per route are down 12.7%, and his red zone target rate has fallen from 36.4% to 27.8%. That’s not to say he can’t produce, but the range of outcomes is certainly less favorable than it was a year ago. As Harold Vannett continues to develop, it’s easier to be bearish than bullish on his stock moving forward.

Evan Engram | DEN (vs DAL)

Evan Engram hasn’t been on the field for the majority of Denver snaps once this season, but we are still moving in a positive enough direction to lock him into lineups given the matchup.

Before missing Week 3 with a back injury, Engram was targeted on 16.7% of his routes. Since, however, that rate has swelled to 29%.

Now, we still have a Bo Nix situation to overcome for Engram to work his way into the lineup lock conversation. However, usage is certainly trending in the right direction, and I’m still not sold that this team has a secondary pass-catcher next to Courtland Sutton.

The 1.7-aDOT was a bit extreme last week, but his season mark is 3.8 yards, and that speaks to Nix’s desire to get the ball in his hands with yards to gain in front of him. You play anyone with a pulse against the Cowboys, but I do think Engram is more than that moving forward: more of a floor play than a ceiling one.

George Kittle | SF (at HOU)

Given the access we have today — where every Google search you make affects the ads you see for the next 17 years and social clips live forever — how did we have no idea that the 49ers wanted to run the ball 40 times on Sunday night against the Falcons?

Every single postgame interview mentioned that.

I know what Cardi B thinks about Patriot games, but we can’t get a leak on something that actually matters?

George Kittle (hamstring) came off the IR and ran 24 routes and was held without a reception. He was on the field to clear paths for this struggling running game, and that’s great, but it doesn’t help us at all.

This wasn’t the result of the injury. He was on the field for 81.8% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps, and there has been zero reporting of any sort of flare-up.

I’m not worried long-term, as Kittle is a man of many strengths, and this team lacks stability at the pass-catcher position. Could he be unleashed this week?

On paper, it makes plenty of sense. The Texans are on a short week and have a corner in Derek Stingley that can make funneling targets to the receiver position difficult. I’m following that line of thought and have him ranked as my TE3 this week: the bad was bad last week, but the good can be just as impactful, and I’ll dance with that devil this weekend.

Hunter Henry | NE (vs CLE)

Hunter Henry earned eight targets in Week 1 and 11 in Week 3, but he’s yet to earn more than five looks in a game since, and that’s more concerning than anything.

The better Drake Maye gets, the less usage there is going in the direction of his tight end.

If you want cheap exposure to the Maye experience, this is a decent way to do it. That said, Stefon Diggs is pretty clearly the top target earner in New England, and Kayshon Boutte continues to excel when his QB has time to look down the field.

Henry is a viable option in the short pass game, but so are both running backs and DeMario Douglas. There are half a dozen TEs that can be started every week in this range, and Henry is no different.

Shuffle them up and deal.

Schultz, Zach Ertz, Noah Fant, etc.

You get the idea. I’m generally ranking those tight ends, barring an extreme matchup in either direction, in the order in which I prefer their QBs, but the margins are so thin. Streaming TE is as much feel as data, and I generally am not enamored with the direction things are headed for Double-H.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs CHI)

The Ravens have been outscored 98-33 in the three games since Likely debuted, a stretch that included the Jackson injury and two missed games from the former MVP. Game script and generalized ineptitude have been problems, but the split in field time at the tight end position has been nearly even.

Weeks 4-6

• Mark Andrews: 111 snaps and 66 routes run
• Likely: 107 snaps and 65 routes run

The team has had no issue running Likely out there, but he’s been out-targeted 17-3 by Andrews over that stretch as he works into game shape.

With Jackson back in a favorable spot this week, I think we get a clearer picture of what the Ravens are thinking for the remainder of the season.

I don’t think you can play either with any level of confidence; that said, I do believe we get clarity, and that’ll give us an idea of how to play this situation moving forward.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs BUF)

A high ankle sprain cost him nearly a month, and, in terms of the box score, he’s still absent.

In his return to action, Ja’Tavion Sanders was held without a catch, operating in a tight end committee that is tied to Bryce Young.

There are a lot of words in this article weekly, and this is the eighth week of my third season of writing it for PFSN. “Operating in a tight end committee that is tied to Bryce Young” might be the most depressing string of words I’ve penned.

• Sanders: 14 routes, 37.1% snap share
• Mitchell Evans: 13 routes, 42.9% snap share
• Tommy Tremble: 12 routes, 67.1% snap share

If you’re the type to call a glass that has a drop of water in it “half full,” Sanders’ route-per-snap rate was well ahead of his teammates, but to be thinking that way, you’re trying a bit too hard.

I like Sanders’ profile and still think there is something there. You can’t go that direction in any season-long format. If you want to buy dynasty shares on the cheap, I won’t stop you. Heck, for a bag of used soccer balls, I’d encourage it.

In redraft, look elsewhere.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (at DEN)

Fantasy’s TE1 just keeps chugging along.

• Blind Line #1: 153 targets and 261.4 PPR points
• Blind Line #2: 147 targets and 317.6 PPR points

Any guesses?

The first one is 2024 Brock Bowers, and the second is the pace of Jake Ferguson over his past six games.

Yes, that’s what we are looking at here. The type of target looked a little different last week against the Commanders with CeeDee Lamb back, but the quality of the look was strong, and he knows what to do with it.

We are only halfway through the fantasy season, but if I had to guess today who will be the most common player on playoff teams this season, Ferguson’s name is on the short list.

This is the perfect setup, and there’s no reason to think he’ll stop producing like an absolute game-changer.

Jake Tonges | SF (at HOU)

There is no such thing as a rostered handcuff tight end.

Jake Tonges was viable in place of George Kittle, and that was good to see.

Past tense.

Kittle returned on Sunday night, and while he didn’t do anything, Tonges ran just two routes. Over the past month, we learned that if Kittle sees an injury flare up, we have a name added to the streamer radar.

But without that, there aren’t opportunities available. Brian Robinson holds the running back equivalent role, but we see RBs get banged up much more often than tight ends.

Jonnu Smith | PIT (vs GB)

Jonnu Smith scored as a part of the Pittsburgh TE bonanza on Thursday night, and now? Now it’s National TE Day.

Not interested.

Darnell Washington is getting a lot of usage thanks to his versatility in this conservative offense, and the Pat Freiermuth explosion gives Arthur Smith an excuse to increase his route count.

If I’m streaming a tight end, it’s not Smith.

If I’m streaming an AFC North tight end, it’s not Smith.

If I’m streaming a Steelers tight end, it’s not Smith.

Under 1.0 yards per route and one end zone target this season. No thanks.

Juwan Johnson | NO (vs TB)

Juwan Johnson caught five balls for 79 yards in Chicago last week, easily his best game since Taysom Hill was activated.

But, as is the case with Alvin Kamara, how much of your mental health do you really want in the hands of this offense?

Chris Olave had a breakout game last week, and Rashid Shaheed is generally a commander of the high-upside targets. Add in the potential for the aforementioned Kamara to chew up some of those easy-button targets, and your math will return similar results to mine.

The 12.9 PPR points from last week are a lot closer to a ceiling than an expectation.

The Bucs are a little more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, and New Orleans can’t run the ball anyway, so there’s volume potential. However, with next to zero scoring upside, Johnson is low on my priority list when it comes to streamers at the position.

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (vs MIA)

Kyle Pitts set a season high with 10 targets against the 49ers on Sunday night, and I think it was a pretty important performance.

• 2021: 11.2 aDOT
• 2022: 13.7 aDOT
• 2023: 12.0 aDOT
• 2024: 8.7 aDOT
• 2025: 5.8 aDOT

Through the first six weeks of this season (five games), Atlanta had seemingly given up on using Pitts as this weird hybrid WR/TE thing and embraced a limited route tree.

Get the ball in the hands of our super-athletes and let the chips fall.

I’m a fan of this plan, but we saw some branching out last week. His 8.6 aDOT was a season high and resulted in him recording more than double his air-yardage output in any other game this season.

Was it a one-off?

Maybe.

Are they working on finding a sweet spot that actually works for what Pitts brings to the table and where Michael Penix is comfortable?

It’s at least possible.

If you were encouraged like I was, this might be your last chance to buy. Matchups against the Dolphins have a way of elevating everyone involved, and that means you may have to pay an even greater premium this time next week.

The Falcons don’t have a single game in December that projects as a weather threat, and they still have games against the Panthers and Saints on the books before then. Paying market value for Pitts right now is an acceptable move, and one that I prefer over trying to band-aid the position together for the remainder of the season.

Mark Andrews | BAL (vs CHI)

Likely has three targets this season, and while there has been a Jackson injury to navigate, the fact that we are in the back half of October and Mark Andrews has two top 25 finishes at the position is disturbing.

With a near-even snap share over the past month, I expect him to be prioritized this week, with him now through the preseason portion of his recovery from the offseason foot injury. Both are to be treated the same: rostered and benched.

Baltimore needs to get hot in a hurry, and this week should give us an idea of what tight end they view as most instrumental in doing so. Personally, I think Likely is that option, but check back next week after we get an all-important data point this weekend.

With Tanner Hudson concussed and Mike Gesicki missing the first of at least four games after being placed on IR, Noah Fant ran 37 routes to Drew Sample’s 17 and operated as a pretty clear TE1 in terms of the passing game.

There is an athletic profile to chase here, and with eight catches on eight Joe Flacco targets over the past two weeks, who am I to complain?

Add his name to the list of streamable tight ends as long as he has the primary role in downs. He’s caught at least four passes in four games this season, and while he’s yet to reach 45 receiving yards, he does seem to fill a chain-moving role that Chase Brown isn’t exactly thriving in.

This is a low-end option, but if I’m taking one tight end moving forward from the Thursday night bonanza, it’s Fant.

Oronde Gadsden | LAC (vs MIN)

It’s Jake Ferguson. It’s Trey McBride. And it’s Oronde Gadsden II.

Those are the tight ends with consecutive seven-reception games this season.

His snap share has increased each week he’s been active, and the 11.4 aDOT against the Colts last week speaks to how much this athletic profile can threaten defenses.

On a different team, you’d be able to sell me on Gadsden as a top 10 tight end. Asking him to thrive alongside three receivers that are objectively more dangerous is difficult at best and disastrous at worst.

The high-PROE stylings of Jim Harbaugh in 2025 give us hope of keeping the 22-year-old on the streaming radar, but is a blitz-heavy opponent really the spot for it?

I have a hard time seeing Gadsden getting much past a handful of targets, and with a game total sitting under 45 points on short rest, I think there’s serious “chase the Week 7 production and lose Week 8 as a result” potential here.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs GB)

I suppose this is a name that needs to be addressed for the first time in this space because he turned six targets into 28.1 PPR points on Thursday night in Cincinnati.

Relax.

Yes, it’s a name you know, and yes, this offense is going to use the TE position to essentially serve as their WR2 role, but there’s no way to project Pat Freiermuth as a viable option moving forward.

His first touchdown was an absolute dime from Aaron Rodgers, threading the needle in zone coverage, and the 68-yard score gave the Steelers a late lead that they’d squander. The two players were great, but it doesn’t change the fact that this man wasn’t a top-25 performer at the position during the first 1.5 months of the season.

It also doesn’t change the fact that he accounted for one-third of the TE targets and 35.6% of the TE routes in Week 7.

Darnell Washington and Jonnu Smith also scored (five TE TDs across both teams, the first time that had happened since 2018) and were on the field plenty.

In combing through the snap data, there seems to be no real lean. Whether you split it off by third downs, red zone snaps, or participation when trailing … everything was split pretty evenly.

We all have developed trust issues with tight ends that have no role competition; they simply just struggle to produce every week, so forgive me if I’m not jumping at the opportunity to throw a dart at a three-headed committee.

You know what happens to that? The three-dragon meme. There are two scary ones and one goofy one with its tongue sticking out. You hit the latter option.

Every. Time.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at LAC)

That’s consecutive games with six receptions for T.J. Hockenson, a nice step forward, but he’s still searching for his first 50-yard outing of 2025, and that’s a problem for a player who has one TD catch on his resume over his past 19 regular-season games.

With just two end-zone targets to his name this season and a 5.0-yard aDOT, his game truly is one of volume. We saw the Chargers give up plenty of short-ball success last weekend against the Colts, thus putting Hock in a position to stumble his way into the top 10 at the position.

That said, the downside is more threatening than the upside is impactful: he’s a fringe option that isn’t worth the trust his name gives you.

Travis Kelce | KC (vs WAS)

The Chiefs got whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted it, on Sunday against the Raiders.

That was good news for Kelce (seven-yard grab on Patrick Mahomes’ first pass of the game and a 44-yard reception on the second) initially, but it resulted in a one-sided game that saw the starters sit out the fourth quarter.

Noah Gray came off the bench on that first drive and had a 28-yard reception, further proof that the Chiefs were playing chess to the Raiders’ checkers.

My concern moving forward for Kelce is back to where it started in the preseason, now that Kansas City has all of its pieces and has won four of five after the 0-2 start.

Desire.

Kelce’s production has faded in the past when fantasy managers need it the most because Reid wants to save his 36-year-old TE for a deep playoff run. That remains my fear, and it’s why I’d consider moving off the future Hall of Famer after his next big game.

That opportunity might be just a week away as the Commanders are licking their wounds after allowing Jake Ferguson to kill them underneath (two touchdowns, 100% catch rate).

Tucker Kraft | GB (at PIT)

Well, this is interesting.

Tucker Kraft scored for a second straight week and set a season-high in slot usage.

Does that stick? Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are on the mend: would their presence change anything?

I’m not sure, but I am sure that Kraft is a vital part of an offense I trust. An offense I trust that has yet to fully commit to any receiver as their alpha.

This offense is built around the running game, and while they lack a WR1, they don’t lack mouths to feed. For those reasons, I can’t view Kraft as a threat to enter the top tier at the position, but his status as a Tier 2 TE is very safe, and that puts you ahead of half of your competition weekly.

The score last weekend came in the fourth quarter of a tight game with some nice ball-handling from Jordan Love. If the Packers are going to continue to scheme things like this up for their athletic tight end, the hot start to the season might only be the beginning.

Tyler Warren | IND (vs TEN)

There are few things on a football field that Tyler Warren can’t do.

The rookie has now scored in three straight games and, despite being a fluid runner down the field, is averaging more YAC than air yards per target.

#Colts TE Tyler Warren ahead of Week 8. @WTHRcom pic.twitter.com/AwzCZox1mj

— Dominic Miranda (@DomMirandaTV) October 22, 2025

A tight end can’t really earn the “queen on the chessboard” scouting take, but Warren is close to it. The Colts identify a pressure point in the defense and send their TE there to expose it. We’ve seen a masterclass from this offense up to this point, and as he develops each week, I think we can expect elite production to sustain.

He’s a Tier 1 option at the position moving forward, and it’s not a conversation. He ranked third on this team in catches and receiving yards in Week 3 against these Titans, but I’m more than happy to label that as a blip.

Zach Ertz | WAS (at KC)

It’s touchdown or bust for Zach Ertz.

He’s scored in four of seven games, including each of the past two, and because of the offense he plays in, it stands to reason that he is a better version of this profile than most, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s still in that streaming mix.

The veteran has reached 45 receiving yards once this season and had four targets thrown his way hit the ground on Sunday in Dallas.

He’s primarily been an efficient player, but that can be fickle, especially as this Washington offense evolves and gets healthy (hopefully!). When playing alongside Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin, you can feel better about the quality of opportunity for Ertz, but the quantity will drop off.

The Falcons and Chargers are the only two defenses of note that the Commanders have played over the past five weeks, and in those contests, Ertz turned 46 routes into 4.1 PPR points.

There are no “bad” plays at the tight end position down the ranks because they all come with a low floor, but I would caution against viewing Ertz as anything different than the top few options on the waiver wire: I wouldn’t commit to him long-term, and this isn’t a great spot.